All errors should be reported to DonSurber@gmail.com

Wednesday, October 05, 2022

Stock analyst's advice? Pray

Bob Dylan sang, "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

You don't need an economist to know which way the economy is headed. In most cases, you are better off without one because most of them are denying that we are in a recession. We are. The economy has been in a contraction since January with no end in sight.

Fox Business reported, "91% of CEOs see tougher recession: KPMG.

"51% of CEOs are considering workforce reductions over next six months."

The Biden administration apparently won't allow the media to report that in the futile hope that Democrats can save the midterm election. CEOs know better because they look at facts not fantasy.

KPMG CEO Paul Knopp told Fox Business, "They're paying a lot of attention to what the Fed is saying around the kind of weakness or sustained weakness they need to create, the cooling they need to create in the economy to beat the corrosive effects of inflation, which can really, in the long term, damage the economy significantly."

The cure for inflation is a recession.

Fed Chairman Jay Powell knows this. He has raised interest rates repeatedly to attack inflation.

He said last month, "The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish to the extent that policy needs to be more restrictive or restrictive for longer."

The stock market crash of 2022, which began with the first trading day this year, has no end in sight this year. That's because Biden took a recovering economy with record high stock prices and turned it into that stuff you don't want to step in. Recovering from Biden's first two years in office will take a long, long time.

What should you do?

Market Watch reported, "This stock-market strategist says the coming recession could be the biggest ever: ‘I recommend prayer.’"

At least the strategist, Keith McCullough, believes we have a prayer. He also believes those in charge of the government know nothing about how business runs.

He said, "Recession today is what transitory inflation was a year ago. The Fed is as wrong on recession risk as they were on inflation.

"I’m about as bearish as I’ve been since 2008. Instead of the economy having a soft landing, I think the landing is going to be hard. The recessionary economic data keeps getting worse, not just in the U.S. but in Europe as well.

"Free money forever created behavioral problems and a behavioral bubble for the markets and investors. You believe you’ll have unlimited access to easy money and your behavior, whether you’re building profitless growth companies through storytelling or cryptocurrencies that also are just stories. You’re coming from the mother of all behavioral bubbles that now will be addressed with tighter money. When you’re printing money and the economy is accelerating to the fastest growth rate ever, you’re going to have the mother of all bubbles. Now, GDP is going to slow to zero, and you get the opposite."

Dang he is good.

The Faucists in government turned productive citizens into welfare clients with covid relief checks.

But why is 2022 worse than 2008?

McCullough said, "On a lot of levels it’s worse now than in 2008. If 2008 was about Wall Street collapsing on itself, on all its conflicts of interests and lies, this one is more about Main Street. Main Street is broke. Main Street is taking all this inflation into their cost of living. Main Street has the highest credit-card interest going back to the 1990s. It’s way worse than 2008 on that basis. If you’re trying to pay your bills with credit, it’s getting worse and worse. And then they’re going to lose their jobs. Labor collapsing is always the last thing to go down. We’re right on the cusp of the labor cycle going the wrong way."

Unemployment is the last thing to rise in a recession.

If you think 8% inflation is bad, wait until 8% unemployment returns.

McCullough said, "When the rate of economic change is accelerating and the Fed is printing money, you buy anything that’s got a good chart and a good story. You’re going to make a lot of money until the music stops.

"And it did. Now we’re seeing the opposite. The rate of change of real GDP growth and inflation are slowing at the same time. You can’t own inflation, commodities or growth now. If you’re still long pretend growth or profitless growth or crypto, I recommend prayer."

My prayer for the country is that Biden's economic failure will turn us back toward the Lord.

***

About this blog, my move to Substack will be slow but steady. Already a thousand people have subscribed. It's free.

I finished an exclusive post that will be sent to subscribers at noon on Saturday.

Sign up! It's free. And when Google shuts down the blog, you will be the first to know.

https://donsurber.substack.com

13 comments:

  1. Suzq22- “ My prayer for the country is that Biden's economic failure will turn us back toward the Lord.” Ditto and Amen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Likewise.

      Delete
    2. Change Your Life Right Now! Work From Comfort Of Your Home And Receive Your First Paycheck Within A Week. No Experience Needed, No Boss Over Your Shoulder... Say Goodbye To Your Old Job! Limited Number Of Spots Open... Find out how HERE....

      See........... 𝐖𝐰𝐰.𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝟏.𝐜𝐨𝐦

      Delete
  2. I pray every day for my kids and grandkids futures.

    Lack of religion is how liberals have thrived. May your prayer be answered and the tide turn.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ditto our family master....however if/when nukes start flying with the resulting atmosphere cooling, blockage of sunlight, radiation poisoning food supply total disruption no confined to small nations, our grandkids won't have much of a future. All signs are leading to another completely avoidable WW, much like how WW1 got started. Madness......!

      Delete
    2. madness indeed, and the 'climate scientists' want to create an artificial volcano effect by shooting glitter into the upper atmosphere, so would nukes. Massive cooling either way, way more than the 1/2 degree they want.

      Prayers to the Lord and that this indeed causes the country to turn back from several paths it is on.

      Delete
  3. Pray for revival every day
    I mean for everyone. 2DC.

    That said China's going further into debt. They are selling dollars to shore up the yuan. Big deal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why are you wasting some time reckoning on your monthly earnings after you can work staying reception simply along q60 with your computer and itinerant you'll be able to earn up to $4000 at intervals three days
      be at liberty to find out more.. www.NetJob1.com

      Delete

  4. Thank you for the excellent column, Don. The winter months are going to be a disaster as Europe completely implodes. The furnaces used in the production of glassware take several weeks to shut down safely and the same to get going again. A huge glassware company in France is shutting down furnaces and laying off employees. Steel furnaces in Germany are shutting down, laying off employees. Given that Europe and the US are huge trading partners, we will feel this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  5. Federal debt hits $31 Trillion and everyone yawns. A hard rain's gonna fall.

    HPB

    ReplyDelete
  6. I think the American Citizen (We All) are going to endure a long, hard 2 years, maybe longer... Pray that God helps the next President, be it Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis to fix the devastating damage that that Buffoon, Biden has heaped upon our great Nation... Trust me, I believe this is going to be rough on all of us!!!

    ReplyDelete