Friday, October 28, 2022

Dems listen to RCP, not 538

N8 Ag (Nate Silver) of 538 gives Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul a 97% chance of re-election. That makes sense. 'Tis a Democrat state south of the thruway and in many parts north.

Real Clear Politics moved the race to a tossup two weeks ago.

Who is right?

I will let the Democrats decide.

The New York Times reported, "With just 12 days until Election Day, Democrats and their allies are mounting a frenzied push to keep Ms. Hochul in office, pouring millions of dollars into last-minute ads and staging a whirlwind of campaign rallies to energize their base amid concerns that their typically reliable bedrock of Black and Latino voters might not turn out.

"Labor unions have gone into overdrive, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on television and radio ads to cajole those voters to turn up for Ms. Hochul. On the ground, Ms. Hochul is expected to campaign with Representative Hakeem Jeffries, a party power broker whose Brooklyn district provides crucial votes for the Democratic base, as well as in southeast Queens with Mayor Eric Adams over the weekend.

"The Hochul campaign has even turned to its former adversaries for help, including progressive lawmakers who opposed her during the Democrat primary in June, and the left-leaning Working Families Party, which called for an 'emergency all-hands-on-deck meeting' of its leadership earlier this week to mobilize in favor of Ms. Hochul."

This is not how you act if you have a 97% chance of winning. 

Don't go only by NYT reporting.

Politico reported, "Gov. Kathy Hochul should not have to worry about dominating deep-blue New York City on the campaign trail.

"For decades, the metropolis has propelled Democrats to victory in races from school board to president, providing a reliable reservoir of wealthy donors and civically-active residents. But less than two weeks before Election Day — and just two days before early voting begins — Hochul has a problem.

"Street corner volunteers and direct mail are lacking in high-turnout neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Manhattan, despite $30.5 million in statewide ad buys. Many of the city’s most prominent Democrat politicians are missing from the campaign trail. And inside her operation, staffers and supporters are growing concerned that she has not made deep enough inroads with consistent Democratic voters, according to interviews with eight people involved in or closely supporting Hochul’s campaign."

But that's her problem, isn't it?

538 spent the summer fluffing Democrat chances. In mid-September, N8 Ag gave Democrats a 34% chance of keeping both the House and the Senate.

RCP said all along Republicans would win the House and the Senate. It was just a matter of how many races Republicans would win. 

Today it has Republicans winning between 225 and 262 seats in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate.

538 still insists Democrats have an 18% chance of keeping both  the House and the Senate.

Who is right?

It does not matter because 538 has lost the ear of the Democrat Party. They know they are doomed. They haven't had as big a Lost Cause since Republicans beat them in the Civil War.

Politico reported, "Democrats Debate Themselves: Why Do We Suck?"

  • Too woke, argued former president Barack Obama in a Pod Save America interview with his former aides. Some Democrats are a “buzzkill,” he suggested, by making people “feel as if they are walking on eggshells” that they might say things “the wrong way.”
  • Too timid on the jobs and economy message, warned Sen. Bernie Sanders. “Young people and working people” won’t turn out, he told CNN, without “a strong, pro-worker Democratic position.”
  • Too much reliance on abortion-rights positioning, not enough on anti-crime, said James Carville, who believes his 1990s-era political instincts are not as obsolete as a younger generation of liberals believes.
  • A weak message (and by implication so-so substance) on inflation, pronounced former Sen. Al Franken on his podcast, acknowledging he is “stressed out” by what may happen next month. “Things have not been trending in the right direction of late.”

It is all of the above.

But losing a midterm is not the end of the world. It is normal. I know that Democrats hate normal. They prefer drama and chaos but losing in 2022 is expected. 

Unless you believe in N8 Ag, which Democrats no longer do.

Shucks. I was hoping they would take the election for granted.

27 comments:

  1. Tammany Hell- supporting corrupt democrats since 1788.

    ReplyDelete
  2. left-leaning Working Families Party,

    Left leaning? I guess Lenin was left leaning too. Seriously the NY WFP is as commie as Gus Hall

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Question; which City will first stop the vote counting at 3AM and kick out all GOP poll workers then secretly start Dem workers 'counting' again? Philly, Phoenix, Vegas, Atlanta, Portland or Milwaukee?

      Delete
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  3. The common thread to all 4 of Politico's quotes is that all 4 are now D hangers-on. Reflects the state of the D party.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I am very encouraged by the enthusiasm for Republicans on November 8th, however, Joe Biden receiving 81 million votes two years ago reminds me any outcome is possible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. People were very laid back and the extremes your crowd went to were and are unprecedented, Jeffery.

      A different outcome this time is not going to be tolerated.

      Delete
    2. Ed is a Douche. He doesn't no Sheet. Do you honestly believe Leftist corruption never ends?

      Delete
  5. People are paying attention this time. Also cheating can't overcome a tsunami 2DC

    ReplyDelete
  6. They were until people started yelling, "Let's go, Brandon".

    ReplyDelete
  7. There is an 83.2% probability that if you criticize Nate Silver you are criticizing science.

    ReplyDelete
  8. N8AG - another Disney property tarnished. Sweet.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Too much reliance on abortion-rights positioning, ""

    Tucker Carlson Calls Democratic Party a ‘Child Sacrifice Cult’
    “Abortion politics is a total fixation of Democratic donors,” Carlson said. “It’s the main thing they care about. Why is that, by the way? It’s a religion. It’s a child sacrifice cult.”
    These people are Satanic, a word which would not have come to mind 10 years ago.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But losing a midterm is not the end of the world. It is normal. ""
      Dems don't see it that way. Politics gives their life meaning.

      Delete
  10. The Democrat's win the 2022 mid term elections by not having the elections.
    Come 5/11/2022 Putin will have dropped a nuke on Ukraine so #FJB can declare a state of emergency and halt the democratic process.
    -DCH

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In the US we say 11/5/2022.

      Delete
    2. Putin is not that stupid. Brandon wants war. The Republicans don't.

      Delete
    3. The only ones who are going to "nuke Ukraine" are the same ones who took out Nord Stream -the Americans and the British.

      As for the Russians they're just waiting for three things.

      1: The buildup of men and equipment to be complete and the dismantling of Ukraine's energy grid to be done. They're almost finished with both objectives.

      2: The ground to firm up after the rainy season.

      3: The midterms to be over. All the governments of the collective west are all run by dangerous, demented, nihilist, psychopaths and WEF tools. They're not going to give them any reason to act more stupidly than they already are.

      Once they roll things will go swiftly.

      Delete
    4. They will not roll swiftly - they are rushing troops through training - and it will be a meat grinder. While I have no doubt that Russia has the ability to overwhelm the Ukrainians with sheer numbers, the problems for the Russians remain serious.

      No logistics capability to move massive numbers of troops and armaments quickly to where they are needed. Nothing in this conscript class of 200,000 people changes that.

      Poorly maintained and capable weaponry, creating serious power projection issues.

      Low inventory of munitions, negatively impacting their ability to use mass bombardment as an offensive strategy, as they prefer. Still Russia's war to lose, but they aren't a sure bet on anything.

      Delete
    5. Fawkes' Plot Not Forgot! The Fifth of November--in only SEVEN days!

      Delete
  11. A funny thing is happening in Pennsylvania. The anger of the voters at the democrats hiding Fetterman's real medical status appears to have set off a bad reaction in voters. I thought Shapiro would be safe. And he may still be. But he is losing support as a means for voters to punish the dems over this. Is it enough? We will know very soon.

    ReplyDelete
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  13. Both Republicans and Democrats fought for the Yankee invader in the war of northern aggression. The GOP was far from alone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There also were a small number of Free Persons of Color fighting for the Confederacy. The OK had to be given at the Company level--but it DID happen and a few of them died for The Lost Cause. Sons of the Confederacy admitted their first Member of Color in 1907.

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