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Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Republicans headed to best showing in 94 years

The bad news is Republicans won't win as many seats this year as they did in 1994 (54) or 2010 (63).

The good news is they don't have to. 

A 36-seat gain would make the 118th Congress (which begins on January 3rd) the most-Republican House in 94 years because Republicans start this time with a larger minority.

A 36-seat gain would put 248 Republicans in the House. The last time Republicans had at least 248 members was after the 1928 election when they led Democrats 270-164.

Then the stock market crashed, the economy tanked and deflation began. Happy days for Republicans ended in the 1930 election.

You may have noticed that the stock market is $7.6 trillion smaller now than when Biden's regime began. You also may have noticed that a recession has begun. The economy contracted in the first two quarters of the year. It's the stupid economy, stupid. That bodes well for a party that already is in a good position to recapture the speakership.

Right now, 212 Republicans are in the House.

The 1994 tsunami began with 176 Republicans.

Likewise, the 2010 shellacking began with 179 Republicans.

So Republicans already are ahead by 33 seats ahead of 2010 and 36 ahead of 1994.

They also start with 30 Democrats retiring.

In 1994, 27 Democrats retired. In 2010, 22 Democrats retired. Democrat retirements seldom are that high unless they fear the electorate.

Redistricting also will play a role this year. California and New York each lost a congressional seat. Florida gained one and Texas gained two.

But the Florida plan likely will cost Democrats two seats because DeSantis drew the map.

Where do we stand? 538 says Republicans are slightly favored to take the House. That makes me laugh. A president's first midterm has cost every modern president's party House seats except FDR and the second Bush, whose wartime popularity buoyed Republicans in 2002.

The far more reliable Real Clear Politics (which nailed the 2010 shellacking) has Republicans gaining 21.5 seats. 

For now.

Its ceiling is a 38-seat gain, which would give Republicans 250 seats -- their most in 94 years.

RCP is cautious. In 2018, its final forecast said Democrats would win 7 to 44 seats. They took 41.

When reading the polls, remember this: one in four Democrat votes comes from a black voter. Thanks to the Voter Rights Act of 1965, about half the black votes are concentrated in minority-majority congressional districts.

That is why in 2012, when Democrats had a 1.1% edge in congressional votes, Republicans still won 234 seats and Democrats won only 201.

Trump left his party in better shape when he left office than Obama left Democrats.

In the 2016 election, Obama's party had 194 seats. After 2020, Trump's party had 213. That's down to 212 with the death of Congresswoman Jackie Walorski on August 3.

In April 2010, when I was blogging for the now-defunct Charleston Daily Mail, I predicted a 51-seat gain for Republicans, at a time when the forecasts were around 24. They won 63 seven months later.

36 sounds right to me this year.

We shall see but between the economy and illegal immigration, three dozen Democrats might want to put in an order for their U-Haul now because there's a backlog as people move from blue states to red.

36 comments:

  1. My comment in Saturday's blog "RCP vs. 538" here:

    House R's: 235-240+

    Senate R's: 52-54, Pick-ups GA + NV, then in order of potential PA, AZ...NH/CO. R's hold WI, NC, FL and the rest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Closet Conservative in CASeptember 28, 2022 at 6:15 PM

      I think the order of potential for pickup is: GA, NV, NH, PA, AZ, CO, WA.

      I think Bolduc has a better chance in NH than Oz in PA. NH is a smaller state and retail politics works better there. Plus NH doesn't have a massive mail-in ballot program. If Oz is leading by 100K votes at the end of election night, I suspect 130K mail in votes will come in and 99.5% will be for Fetterman.

      Also, you left out OH and Vance. I think he's just as likely to retain OH as Johnson in WI.

      Delete
    2. You're optimistic. The Republicans (the stupid party) have a solid track record of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.
      And remember, the vast electorate is badly-educated, uninformed and immatiure. These dimwits gave us Biden.
      The country is in bad shape, by any measure, and the polls show close races if not Democrat winners.

      Delete
    3. My lord. You just admitted they cheat in print. So are we just accepting this as normal? This is insanity because it continues to be accepted over and over. Definition of insanity

      Delete
    4. Check out the non-stream polls - The Peoples Pundit on Locals.com - they are pretty accurate and doesn't candy coat . . . .

      Delete
  2. Forty-six sounds right to me. But hey, who am I? You and Ann called it in '16.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not scared. If they scared, they would be scared of us--their own voters. They are collusive WITH the democrats, not scared OF them.

      They SHOULD be scared of us.

      The soap box is censored.
      The ballot box is corrupted.
      But there is another box.

      NOBODY should want to open the third box.

      Delete
    2. The question still remains ? Are Republicans actually any solution to anything ? Or is the uni party still intact ? When McConnellle and McCarthy and many more RINOs are gone I will feel much better about all of it.

      As it exists we need the REPs but not the RINOs this time and we must keep them honest ! I do not see the REPs as any long tem solution to anything now, especially Ukraine and all of Europe ! Also USA blew up the NS pipeline exactly as Biden and Nuland said they would almost a year ago in January. I do not trust our government for anything. Why would anybody trust them given what has happened on many fronts in the last 10 years ? Fact is we have no government, just criminals in suits pretendign to be our leaders !

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  3. Will they cut drastically spending and eliminate the budget deficit? Will they cut the federal bureaucracy in half? Will they cut federal taxes and fees in half? Will they close the border, finish the wall, repeal the Dream Act and repatriate the millions of illegal immigrants that are here? Will they repeal Obamacare? Will they defund the FBI until its leaders are tried and in prison or hung? Will they drain the swamp that they comfortably inhabit?

    No, No, No, No, No, No, and No.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. R's have been the controlled opposition for so long... MAGA

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    2. yes they surely have been and in spades openly for all to see who have eyes that can still see the truth of it all. How many have been near totally mind effed here in USA ?

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  4. Won't make a bit of difference. With RARE exception the GOP is comprised of two types of assclowns. Spineless gutless wimps who won't oppose the communist left and quisling communists who ran posing as GOP in order to win districts they couldn't win otherwise. NOTHING WILL CHANGE. There will be no detour from the lefts planned course of destruction.

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  5. Ok you doubters, which would you rather have? Being under the Dem boot heel or a Republican congress that has already a vague idea about freedom?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I guess we'll go with the vague idea about freedom for $200.

      Delete
    2. C) a third party with an eye on the future. We will lose now, even if we win seats. Too many posers already embedded.

      Delete
  6. Here's a question I'd love to see answered, At the rate Biden is depleting the Strategic Petroleum Reserves will he be able to manipulate gas prices all the way to the election?
    Obviously, his people should have already determined the burn rate that they can afford. Well, it's obvious to me and you but I don't know that Joe Biden has anybody who understands the principle of metering anything for long term benefit. Bunch o' crackheads and seed corn eaters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've seen reports that gas prices are already inching up.

      Delete
    2. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a Wartime Resource.

      Hence it is being emptied and transferred to China on orders from Beijing.

      see also; Bagram Air Base, weapons transfers to Ukraine, m-RNA Injection of troops, loss of Dollar as Reserve Currency, etc., etc..

      Buying Bidens is much cheaper than buying aircraft carriers.

      Delete
    3. Not in California. Gas is up $1.00 per gallon since August 20, and 30 cents per gallon since Sunday.
      As for Congress, we will win every tossup district in the House and we will a bunch of lean districts as well. 33 to 55 seat gain. The senate will gain from 4 to 6 seats.

      Delete
  7. I admire your positivity, Don, but the GOP can still screw this up. I have posted of this before but it still needs reinforcement. The NeverTrumpers need-NEED! to put that dislike aside, at least till November, to concentrate on taking back Congress. Let 2024 take care of 2024 after November...
    BTW, today I saw a flag in front of a house that reads "Mean Tweets 2024". Love it!
    ~DP in MI~

    ReplyDelete
  8. Odds are they win and go back to their - I still get payed whether I try or not jobs in congress
    We’ ve seen this movie plot for decades from the rinos/egop/establishment repubs/deep state/swamp creatures

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  9. Current House - 211 republicans plus Miss Piggy. Actuall, probably more like 200 republicans out of 212.

    Maybe this time, if 250’are elected, 245 will be republicans, with fewer RINOs as well.

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  10. That's down to 212 with the death of Congresswoman Jackie Walorski

    According to the lying dogfaced pony soldier, she's still alive.

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  11. This whole process would be easier if we had different leadership in the House and Senate. Then again if we had this different leadership, maybe they would actually fix this broken country.

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  12. dont forget cheating

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  13. Bonus: President Trump is actively campaigning, effectively, for R's in tight races - particularly for Conservative R's.

    Obama was too lazy to bother.

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  14. There's no more winnable election and there's no more important election, in the history of this nation, and establishment republicans don't want to offend utterly vile leftists
    Super majorities in both houses.

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  15. Doesn’t matter if they take the house, senate or both. Most of them are evil scum lords and will talk out of one side of their mouths while spectacularly doing nothing.

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  16. My God, there are still people that believe US elections are legitimate? Additionally, what does it matter? Wow. Most corrupt government in human history.

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  17. May God have mercy on our nation, and may your predictions be correct. If we are to unite our nation once again may plain criteria: Sanity and Common Sense and a desire to above everything else to LIVE FREE, become the uniting principles we all share and vote for at the ballot box. Number one qualification for any candidate: Mentally alert and mentally stable. Fetterman in PA flunks this test! President Biden might not be able to obtain a passing score.

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  18. This is the kiss of death for the GOP. I can still remember when Don predicted Trump would have at least 350 votes (Don likely predicted a higher number) in 2020. Well, perhaps Don figured out how to single handedly stop voting fraud. But then again, nah.

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  19. The repub party can be counted on to take victory and throw it as far away as possible! They do it every election, they screw it up, guaranteed! The dems don't seem the least bit concerned, of course not, they have cheating down and the repubs will only grumble around each other quietly. Accuse the dems of cheating? The repubs are absolutely terrified of the communist party! If the commies attack the repubs they recoil and run and hide. This is the main reason the commies hate Trump, they attack him and he's a polar bear, they just piss him off more! And then we have mitch the... never mind, mcconnell only wants to win when it suits his purpose as he and his wife rise ever higher in the chinese communist party. I believe his wife is now the assistant deputy comrade chairmen of the party.
    Trumps a fighter and a winner, thats why the communists must prevent him from running. They'll make something up and embellish it until they say justice has been served. Shortly after that, the second shot heard round the world, revolution 2.0!

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  20. It's not like it doesn't matter which party wins or loses, I mean, it matters, just a little, particularly with a corrupt Marxist President to block. However, with McCarthy and McConnell still running the House and Senate, it really doesn't matter. Conservatives like Bannon and MTG are talking about impeachment(s)? How is that going to happen? When McCarthy only lost to Ryan because he was too left of center, too RINO for the caucus? Now, McCarthy resumes his role as the Speaker, throttling any conservative initiatives, while working to elect more RINO Congress-persons, or failing that, Democrats he "can work with".

    By the way, what happen to Steve Bannon's "100 seats for 100 years" prediction? I liked the sound of that, but the GOP leadership, clearly did not. They'd rather have a closely divided Congress, the more to bring in the big bucks from Corporations and Billionaire's for influence peddling. A dominant, conservative, Constitution focused GOP majority? OMG, perish the thought. They might even have to repeal Obamacare!! That's why you see McCarthy (and McConnell for the Senate) working so hard to defeat MAGA canidiates - IN THE GENERAL ELECTION, after the people have spoken in the primary.

    Nothing's going to change, and more than likely, Democrat will steal the 2022 and 2024 elections anyway. No one stopped them then. They have even more "lawfare" and the Feds behind them now. Can't win in a rigged game.

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  21. Jackie Walorski of Indiana died immediately after she convened a congressional inquiry into pedophiles. Odd case...

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  22. This article is all about the House, what about the Senate? I see the Senate gaining D's. I'm in OH and I rarely see JD Vance commercials, but we're bombarded with Tim Ryan commercials. When people don't know either candidate they vote based on ads. Tim's ads are all lies, but they're effective, and there's lots of them.

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