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Saturday, September 24, 2022

RCP vs. 538

If you are a Democrat and visit Nate Silver's 538 site, you believe the election is in the bag because good old N8 Ag gives Democrats a 71% of keeping the Senate and a 32% chance of keeping the House. 

In fact, 538 said Republicans could lose up to 30 seats in the House and 7 in the Senate in a feat that defies all logic and 200+ years of congressional history.

If you are a Republican and visit the Real Clear Politics site, you believe the Senate election is in the bag because RCP says Republicans will keep all the seats they now have and pick up Georgia and Nevada.

Furthermore, RCP said Republicans already have gained the six House seats they need for a majority and could add up to 32 more seats. Logic and history say a 6 to 38 seat-gain is lowballing it for the party out of power.

N8 Ag and RCP use the same polls to reach their conclusions.

So, who is right?

538 is owned by Disney via ABC. While it made its mark as a political tout sheet, its main business now is sports forecasting. Sports betting is a huge industry and a major advertiser on another Disney outlet, ESPN.

I must caution bettors. In 2015, 538 announced, "Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination."

As a native Clevelander, I thank The Donald for leading the Cavaliers to their first championship in 2016. I also congratulate him on his Oscar for Home Alone XXIII.

Real Clear Politics is a pretty balanced site that offers a Democrat opinion for every Republican opinion in its links section. For longer than a decade, it has been a go-to site for political insights. 

You know which one I prefer.

But what about its competitors. What are they predicting?

Charlie Cook, who was burnt by the 2016 election, has the House at Republicans 212, Democrats 192 with 31 tossup races. That's closer to RCP than 538.

In the Senate, Cook has three tossup races: Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin with Pennsylvania flipping blue. Two of those three tossups are held by Democrats. That leans toward 538.

Larry Sabato's Senate forecast is the same except he concedes Republicans will keep Wisconsin. That puts Democrat odds below even. That leans toward RCP.

In the House, Sabato has it Republicans 215, Democrats 196 with 24 tossups. That's like RCP's forecast.

As they sang on Sesame Street of the lone beaver in the pack of otters, one of these things is not like the otters.

47 comments:

  1. 538 is as biased as The Hill. It's all Bravo Sierra hoping to generate clicks from desperate dems.

    HPB

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    Replies
    1. It's different now. In the past dems had to stuff the box and hope. Rinos and dems allowed them to count first and then stuff /print the gap in 2020. No more outsider republican or dem wins in statewide races. They just need one corrupt precint to print the gap.

      Delete
  2. Randy says: I tend to go with Rasmussen.

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    Replies
    1. Four years ago, Rasmussen had Republicans at +1 in the last generic ballot. They lost by 8.6. Rasmussen is a joke.

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    2. Trump won 2020, the left owns most polling companies and used them to cover the massive cheating that transpired. Trump 79 million and biden 62 in reality

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    3. It is very concerning that there are so many people who would vote for Biden.

      Delete
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      Delete
  3. RCP vs. 538
    Yawn. Irrelevant navel-gazers.
    The stock market is crashing and a Trump Wave is
    imminent.
    All aboard the Trump Train!

    ReplyDelete
  4. 2022 will be historic. Democrats defy history and logic as they did in 2020. The fix in place. Prepare to be shocked!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe that is why SecState Katie Hobbs (in charge of elections in AZ) refuses to debate Kari Lake or even campaign.

      HPB

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  5. Only problem with the polls if the votes don't count and the vote counters do.

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  6. House R's: 235-240+

    Senate R's: 52-54, Pick-ups GA + NV, then in order of potential PA, AZ...NH/CO. R's hold WI, NC, FL and the rest.

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  7. How you frame the world determines how you weight the "relevance" of data creating the outcome that validates the way you have framed the world. And Nate Silver is the best. What a waste of an IQ.

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    Replies
    1. EN2 SS says;
      What a waste of oxygen, just to put out BS and CO2.

      Delete
  8. The Democrat political machine has been hiding the fact for a long time that they are a minority party in regards to popular support. They have won elections through targeted marketing campaigns in districts with high numbers of independents, and targeted cheating locally and nationally. I know it’s hard for some to believe but the more shrill their hyperbole, and the more they work to bend the system against their political opponents the more likely their support base is shrinking. These are all signs of a corrupt machine desperately trying to hold on to power.

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  9. The Dems in Oregon are running in circles, screaming, sumpin's up.
    2DC

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    Replies
    1. You noticed that, too. A lot of oldie Demos (Grampa voted fer Frank D Rooosevelt 'n' that's good enuf fer me) are going wobbly this year (the checks don't stretch very far), so there may well be some bad surprises waiting out there.

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    2. A lot of midwest farmers thought the same......but times they are a changing.......

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  10. Even RCP just uses a blend of left-wing polls.

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  11. "N8 Ag and RCP use the same polls to reach their conclusions.

    So, who is right?"

    The Dominion voting machines. Nothing has changed since November 2020.

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  12. Don: With all due respect, the only poll I listen to are the ones from the Trafalgar Group. Their methodology and results are the ONLY ones that were spot on in the last two election cycles. Let's see what those folks say.

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  13. What's Trafalgar say?

    Frankly, RCP just regurgitates all the others; Ras isn't the same without Scott. Traf, I don't really know, but they seem honest.

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    Replies
    1. That makes all the sense in the world. Rasmussen was showing 36 percent approval and 62 disapproval on Biden a little over a month ago. A week later it was 45-53, and even got to 46-52 last week. I think it was 43-55 once, but it has been mostly that 8 point differential. It didn’t seem like Rasmussen to swing that much. Even Reuters has been pretty consistent on poor Biden polling.

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  14. A lot of this bullschiff is also designed to keep repub turnout low. If they can make you think you're alone then it's working.
    If you know you aren't alone and no matter what you're going out to vote for the hardest core repub you can vote for then they're in trouble.

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  15. It's a forest and trees thing. They are all blind to the 800 pound gorilla sitting over there in the corner. He's a particular breed called "Inflatimus Maximus". He went on walkabout 40 years ago but now he's back.

    The last time inflation was above 8% was 1980. The Republicans picked up 12 Senate seats in that election. They won't do that this time because there only 10 Dems running, but the pollsters are going to have an omelet on their faces.

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  16. Rich Baris, “The People’s Pundit,” is your best source for political surveys. Yes, you may quote me on that.

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    1. Thanks, Mr. Baris.

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    2. He is. RCP is always negatively impacted by the bad polls in its group. Any FOX poll is always like D+10. But it get's aggregated like all the rest.

      Baris polling is private, you have to work to find it. Trafalgar is public on its political polling, and also the most accurate for two or three cycles going. Even they have conceded this year they are struggling to get a good read on GOP sentiment, and are convinced they are undercounting GOP strength, even though publicly their polling is as favorable as any polling out there. 52-48 R Senate seems pretty much in the bag. 55-45 could happen with a few breaks - suggesting something in the middle. The House is gone. 538 is a political hack site.

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  17. The only way Demons keep
    The House or Senate is the old fashioned way- by stealing elections.

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  18. I don't know who is right about who wins but I will bet on one thing - this Midterm will have truly historic turnout.

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  19. The more pain that is inflicted between now and November is what is going to matter the most. The Democrats are currently doubling and tripling down, the economy is about to flush itself and inflation is already crushing millions.

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  20. I'll go out on a twig here & say that Don Surber is incorrect.

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  21. I'll go out on a twig here & say that it is NOT Nate Silver who is correct.

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  22. The democrats are closely watching how the Russians “count” the referenda votes in the Ukrainian occupied territories. They hope to pick up more pointers on how to turn a doumpster fire into a gourmet meal.

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  23. There's a reason Dominion is spelled with a (D).

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  24. I recommend checking out Rich "The People's Pundit" Baris who founded Big Data Poll and runs a contributor funded Public Polling Project. He's made a lot of videos and twitter posts about polling in general, methodology, and how terrible most polling firms have been since 2016.

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  25. I have learned a few things in life and one of which is to not believe ANY polling. They have bad track records in everything they predict. Remember, someone owns that polling company and too many people flat out lie to the pollsters. Ask questions, read as much as possible, and always go with your gut instinct afterward.

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  26. Don’s one blog has more truth in one article than the democrat news has in a year. Well done. Also demonstrates how far gone the news is & why more each day disregard it…. Along with crooked polls. Thx Don!!!!

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  27. History tells us what is most likely to happen based on where we are now: GOP easily gets control of House, more likely than not slim control of the Senate, too.

    Other than that, we'll just have to wait for election day; the only poll that really counts.

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    Replies
    1. I vote republican, however, despise the rinos. Let's see what they do or not do if/when they again get control of the house or senate. They don't call the two parties the Uniparty for nothing.

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  28. Until about a week before the election, polls are simply manipulative. They cant afford to be on election day. Watch the trend to Rs on Nov. 1

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  29. Trafalgar is only reliable poll

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    1. Yeup; you are right on target; it's Trafalgar baby and he is saying that the MAGA Republicans are NOT participating in the polls because the white house occupant called them Ultra-Fascists and want them in jail.
      He called 2016 perfectly with the "hidden voters for Trump"...not he is referring to the MAGA Republicans as submerged(?) voters. They are hidden and very quiet.
      Stay aware!

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  30. Nate Silver has NEVER been right so I’d go with any other poll..Trafalgar has the best track record…

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  31. Forget 538 and RCP.

    CCP knows the outcome 100%

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  32. Next month, pollsters will look at "Likely voters" rather than "registered voters." The shift to (R) will be noticeable.

    THREE (D) candidates dropped out of the Wisconsin Senate primary, literally handing the race to a radical-racist Lefty named Barnes. They dropped out because they knew Ron Johnson was very likely to win the election, not because they love Barnes.

    That was clear to the (D) poohbahs 90 days ago. What we see now, at least in Wisconsin, are suppression polls or polls which rely only on 'registered'.

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  33. I'd suggest you follow People's Pundit and Richard Baris if you still believe in polls instead of these corrupted pollsters.

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