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Friday, September 30, 2022

A 21-point lead may help Republicans

Hidden inside the recesses of the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll was this nugget: "Among those living in congressional districts that are rated as at least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight (neither solid Republican nor solid Democratic), registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide 55-34 percent – nearly as big as the Republican lead in solid GOP districts (+24 points). Democrats lead by 35 points in solid Democratic districts, pointing to a potential overvote where they’re most prevalent."

So much for reports of the red wave petering out.

538 lists a whopping 50 seats as competitive.

11 are held by Republicans. 2 are new seats. 37 are held by Democrats

538 gives Republicans the edge in 20 of those 50 races. That would be a 9 seat gain.

But as the pollsters who did the ABC-WaPo poll pointed out that since 1946, when a president's approval is 50%, his party loses an average of 14 House seats in the midterm.

Under 50%, his party loses an average of 37 seats.

Biden's approval is 39% in this poll.

Karl Rove wrote in the Wall Street Journal, "The problem for Democrats is that abortion and climate are less important to voters than pocketbook and safety concerns. When asked in the ABC News/Washington Post poll to pick their most important issue, 26% chose the economy, 21% inflation and 14% crime, making the GOP agenda the main focus of 61% of voters. By contrast, 22% picked abortion and 13% climate change, leaving 35% of the electorate prioritizing the Democratic agenda."

We are in a recession with high inflation and even higher crime, but somehow Democrats are going to defy history and keep the House and add Senate seats.

Don't sell Kevin McCarthy short. His Commitment to America is safe and sane. 

Larry Kudlow wrote in the New York Sun, "the Commitment to America represents a complete reversal of Mr. Biden’s radical, progressive, woke experiment. The document messages to voters the GOP commitment to curb inflation, reinvigorate the economy, fight crime, back up parents and cops, close the border, reopen the energy spigots, and defend freedom.  

"Freedom is a word you never hear from Democrats, but restoring freedom in all areas of American life is a very powerful undercurrent to this election.  

"No matter how much Biden World Democrats try to avoid these crucial issues, or lie about them, the fact remains that Americans are a lot smarter than Mr. Biden’s big-government socialists believe. Voters see right through the phony ads and statements from the Democrats. 

"Yes, I truly believe the cavalry is coming."

***

I like to say don't look at the polls, look at the pols. Their actions speak louder than numbers.

Axios reported, "The White House is launching a talent search to be ready for turnover in President Biden's cabinet and other senior administration roles after the 2022 midterm elections.

"Driving the news: White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain has tapped former administration officials Jeff Zients and Natalie Quillian to help oversee a wide talent search effort outside the administration to bring in new talent, an administration official told Axios.

"Why it matters: Nearly all of the positions for which Zients and Quillian will be drawing up lists for would require Senate confirmation, which may be complicated if Republicans take control of the chamber post-midterms."

Biden ain't staying the course because his course has led to the surrender of Afghanistan, a return of inflation after 40 years of hibernation, and a recession. Even worse (from his perspective) is it will lead to a Republican Congress.

33 comments:

  1. The Democrat's only chance is to cheat, again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is a point at which cheating won't work without it being too obvious. The last time was too close to escape analysis but when they are overwhelmed by Republican votes...

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    2. There just aren't enough areas where there are unrestricted unsecured votes just laying around. Wisconsin is now safe. No one is suggesting Walker won't win Georgia. Pennsylvania is essentially a toss up suggesting the dems are taking on water. When we here more and more polling and stories on the dangers to democrats in Washington, Colorado, Vermont, NH, and Connecticut, you know which way it is going. It also means 250 House GOP is very doable. And McCarthy knows in 2024 if he hasn't led well in 2022 he won't be the returning speaker.

      I still think 52-48 GOP senate - but with a surprise maybe they nudge a bit closer to 54. And in 2024 the dems have a nasty map to defend. The GOP is looking at a chance at 60 in 2024. Because DeSantis is absolutely going to slaughter anyone the dems put up. At this point I think Trump is taking bullets as a favor.

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    3. I agree the Dems will cheat, their actions show their desperation. But I have seen the GOP win two massive wave elections and turn back to feast at the trough and ignore the base. McCarthy, McConnell the soirit brothers of Romney, Dole, and McCain. They pray at the altar of Rockefeller each day sacrificing an conservative who is unwise enough to intern for them.

      I've seen the Nixon types betray this country for decades. With the exception of Reagan which Republican honored his promises and was true to the Constitution?

      We need people like DeSantis and Cruz. Trump displayed amazingly bad judgement and allowed the enemy to infilitrate his inner circle. No doubt because of his most "trusted" advisers.

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    4. McCarthy is like a younger version of McConnell with Romney's snake venom, Lindsey Graham's treachery and Karl Rove's lies, deceit and colllusion with Rinos, Dems, and Global Elites.I don't trust McCarthy as Speaker and he must be defeated by the House Republican majority.

      Delete
  2. "the fact remains that Americans are a lot smarter than Mr. Biden’s big-government socialists believe."
    Does anyone actually believe this?
    Two events: The COVID pandemic showed the majority as gullible
    serfs.
    These gullible serfs then elected a corrupt career politician with obvious dementia.
    Badly-educated, uninformed immature voters don't make smart decisions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Voters did not elect Biden. The vote counters did, and now, the Democrats have put all their eggs in the cheating basket.

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    2. Agree, Anon. Voters are stupid and becoming more stupid all the time given today's education system.

      Delete
  3. Yesterday's genius is today's fool
    2004
    Karl Rove directs George Bush campaign to victory. Genius.
    2012
    Karl Rove completely wrong about the campaign outcome. The man is a fool.

    2014
    Nate Silver is a statistical genius. Calls the 2014 election perfectly.
    2015
    Nate Silver says Trump is a sideshow.
    2016
    Nate Silver completely wrong about Trump. The man is a fool.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2016
      "With 19 Days to Go, Clinton’s Lead Is Bigger Than Ever"
      --Larry Sabato is one of the nation's most respected political scientists

      Delete
  4. I remember 1980, 1994. etc., but the colleges (DNC farm teams) have been producing indoctrinated serfs for a long time. Many are now middle aged.

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  5. I read somewhere: of those who answered abortion is a deciding election factor, over half are pro life

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, the sides on abortion are well known, and what energy difference there is according to polling (yeah, I know) is with pro-life. We will see shortly how the very strong pro-life positions taken in Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri play out in November.

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    2. And in Michigan where adding it to the state constitution is on the ballot. Pro abortion people are running ads on every possible medium non-stop. Very little from pro life side.

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  6. Whatcha mean dems don't like freedom? They like freedom of choice to abort babies, they like the freedom to steal elections, they like the freedom to burn down cities...and on and on.

    HPB

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  7. Randy says: I think I’ll start a political polling company. I’ll rate every race a “tossup” and be the only pundit with 100% accuracy. /sarc

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  8. It's not a question of how beneficial McCarthy's "Commitment to America" would be. It's a question of McCarthy's real commitment to the Commitment to America plan. Anyone with a cozy relationship with a snake in the grass like Frank Luntz is highly suspect in my book. Are we building ourselves up for another disappointment?

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    Replies
    1. Epstein nailed it! Who wants to really believe Mccarthy stands behind his loudmouth promise to punish SOME of the corruption, with Mitch Mcconnel whispering in his other ear to back off?? The majoy item however had better be blocking and deleting billions of the dollars uncle joe is throwing around, or the dollar in your pocket will be nothing more than a freaking piece of colored paper.

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    2. I don’t trust McCarthy. I trust Rick Scott and his Rescue America plan.

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    3. EBA says: I would be careful about trusting Scott. He’s an opportunist and slippery as an eel (IMO).

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    4. Kevin McCarthy Caught in Bald-Faced Lie.
      Leaked audio proved that McCarthy said he planned to ask Trump to resign after Jan. 6, but he denied ever saying it. He's a dirty snake.

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    5. Leaders lead. Followers just talk tough and then do nothing. McCarthy is a nice guy but we don't need a nice guy to lead the party, we need a warrior.

      Delete
  9. Judging rinos by history, a rino senate will accept any and all pResident Bi-me nominees.

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  10. After the red wave crashes upon the Gentry Elite, who will play the part of Peter Jennings this time?

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  11. http://continentalgrain.com/mormonchurchciaorisraelcausedhavanasyndromeinnerspeechreadingdrones

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  12. If/When the GOP take both houses of congress- will it be business as usual?

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    Replies
    1. Without a change in the leadership, nothing will change. I'm tired of the tough talk with nothing that follows.

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  13. The trouble with the abortion angle for Dems is that of the 22% for whom abortion access is the top issue, 100% were guaranteed Democrat votes already. There's no gain.

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  14. Nothing is going to change once the GOP retakes
    control unless we dump McCarthy and McConnell. To say otherwise is just to discount history. It is going to take strong decisive leadership to turn this country around and neither one of those two guys wants to do the tough and painful things this country needs at this juncture. I have been fooled too many times to believe there will be a sudden turnaround in either of them. Time for a big change in leadership.

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  15. Well separating "the economy" and "inflation" is a bogus premise from the start. These polls are engineered for political objectives and none of these "news" organizations are credible. Most of them operate as instruments of the DNC.

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  16. Don't sell Kevin McCarthy short? He sold America short!

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  17. I don't believe any polls anymore because their sample usually overwhelmingly consists of people who identify as democrat. I haven't been contacted by any kind of pollster in years and I imagine there are plenty of other conservatives that haven't been either.

    Furthermore, as politics has become increasingly, viciously partisan, for the sake of survival, people's personal politics have had to become cryptic. You have to keep your mouth shut to keep peace with family or to remain competitive in the office. I think this is the primary reason polls were so far off in 2016; Many outlying Trump voters were seeing how much crap the outspoken supporters were taking and decided to just change the conversation to the weather and vote anonymously. Seeing the democrat's daily 24 Hours of Hate, I think it's just going to get worse.

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  18. Having time to research and compare statements that politicians make I have become aware of the many "qualifier" words used when they make their promises to citizens. They must have learned from the drug companies. This drug MAY gives immediate relief from symptoms. This legislation MAY offer tax relief. The wording they use for polls taken are never straight forward questions. It is like a question that asks when did you stop beating your wife? any answer will be the wrong one and incriminating. polls determine the outcome before the questions are asked. Then this information is fed to a president, a governor, or whoever is running giving them false hope of winning to make them confident. Our president seems confused at any data given him, or the direction to go after he screws it up. Get that poor man off the stage. Are the Democrats so desperate to keep the illusion intact that they embarass the president and our nation? -------------- I, Grampa

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