120 years ago, Texas added two congressmen and created its 15th congressional district. Democrats have held it for 120, beginning with John Nance Garner who represented it for 30 years until he became vice president under FDR. Al Gore carried it by 10 points despite running against the governor of Texas, George W. Bush. 4 years later, Bush won it by 2 but Obama carried it by 20 points. Hillary carried it by 16. The district is 81% Hispanic.
Democrats can expect to lose it in November. The seat is one of 21 Democrat seats that Real Clear Politics say are likely or lean Republican in November.
Only 1 Republican seat is expected to flip.
The Democrat seats next to 15 are overwhelmingly Hispanic (79% and 84%). No Republican has represented them. In 2020, the Democrat won by 15 and 19 points respectively. Nevertheless, Real Clear Politics lists those races as tossups.
Real Clear Politics lists 32 seats as tossups. 28 of those are held by Democrats.
Without those tossups, Real Clear Politics has Republicans winning 223 seats, Democrats 180.
Republicans need only 218 seats to take back the House.
The 2022 election is shaping up to be a blowout for Republicans as big as 2010 when they added a century-high of 63 seats.
Republicans are off to a better start.
12 years ago today, Real Clear Politics had it at Democrats 201, Republicans 199 with 35 tossups.
The final score would be Republicans 242, Democrats 193.
In that June 10, 2010 prediction, Real Clear Politics said Republicans had 165 safe seats and Democrats had 150.
Today, Republicans have 180 safe seats and Democrats have 149.
Much can and will happen between now and Election Day, November 8, that could affect voting. The stock market could crash. Inflation could hit double digits. Gasoline could hit $5 a gallon. Stores could start running out of basic products. Crime could ravage our cities. And Biden could make another gaffe.
Real Clear Politics uses a "broad range" of lefty polsters in their averages. That explains Republicans beating their predictions. Polling is a crooked industry.
ReplyDeleteNot all of the polls are crooked. Trafalgar Group polls are usually right on the money and have a even-handed approach to their numbers. I believe as a conservative you can trust their assessment.
DeleteCrooked is the word. Polls are Propaganda. Both parties use it... one party uses it much better than the other (because they control every aspect of delivery... Government, nooze, TV, Radio, Tech). There is such a thing as REVERSE propaganda, as may be the case with this Republican tsunami that's being predicted. One possible result may be that Republican voters might think... they don't need me, I'll just stay home on election day. Best advice is to ignore ALL polls.
DeleteThere is only one poll that counts, the election. And it is supposed to be fair and legitimate. Lets make sure it is fair and legitimate. Pressure state legislatures to purge voter roles, abolish ballot drop boxes and have voter ID. you know, the common sense stuff they resist.
DeleteI stumbled upon the best pollster - Rich Baris of People's Pundit, find him on YouTube. He's spot on and compares his results to the others - fantastic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1aYyWJI6Zs&t=927s. He's also on Rumble and Locals.com.
DeleteThat’s assuming that we have fair elections. After the 2020 election, I no longer believe that. And if you watch what’s happening now, neither should anyone. In a normal election cycle, if the party in power was causing such societal and economic destruction and the people were letting them know that they were dissatisfied, the party would change course in order to maintain power. Clinton did just that and was re-elected. This regime is doubling down. Why is that? Because they know they can openly cheat and get away with it.
DeleteDon, please note that in NY and NJ there are gas stations selling regular gas at $4.99 and more, although many are a bit less.
ReplyDeleteJust paid $5.11 cash in Central NJ yesterday. Could fill my mower gas can with a $20 bill. Amazing.
DeleteInflation Adjusted Gas Prices
DeleteAdj. for April 2022 nominal and adjusted
1970 $0.36 $2.68
1980 $1.22 $4.28 adjusted up 60%
1998 $1.02 $1.80 lowest in history
2011 $3.48 $4.47 adjusted up 148%
2020 $2.07 $2.31
2022 $3.77 $3.82
We had commodity booms in the 1970s, 2000s and now 2020s. Prices have much further to go and for many years.
The 100 yr trend in gasoline prices is down.
SoCal station nearby has $6.59 for regular.
DeleteBiden and Newsom are a deadly mix.
Regular gas here was $2.21 in January of 2020. It is now $5.02. Comparisons to earlier markets be damned, policies matter, and the current Marxist enviro-whacko cabal is contemplating cancelling ANOTHER 1,000 oil and gas leases on federal land.
DeleteAnyone who votes democrat is voting for 8-10 dollar gasoline.
DeleteThe parallels between 1973-75 and 2021-23:
ReplyDelete1973 Israel Arab war. 2022 Ukraine war.
1973 Arab oil embargo. 2022 Sanctions on Russian oil.
1973 Stock market falls on inflation. 2022 Stock market falls on inflation.
1974 Recession. 2022 Recession coming.
1974 Stock market falls on recession. 2022 Stock market fall on recession coming.
1974 Nixon resigns. 2023 Biden resignation coming.
1974 Dems win House 291-144 2022 Reps win big mid-term.
1975 Vietnam war lost. 2021 Afghan war lost.
No, Jeffery, we didn't lose 'Nam and A-0stan. The Demos threw them to the wolves.
DeleteDumb comment
DeleteEd is correct. Our soldiers and Marines won on the ground. Our Navy and Air Force ruled the skies. Our heroes returned to the most vile treatment imaginable. No ticker tape parades, no bands, no lovely ladies on their arm.
DeleteThe lefties treated them like shit because they stopped the spread of communism for a little while. Then when the moment came to go back like we promised, the donks in Washington left the Vietnamese people for the wolves.
I will never forget the story of the Embassy guard that Don published a while back.
Roger that
DeleteI think the only war we’ve won was in Grenada. At least that’s one for my lifetime.
DeleteI still say that Oregon will be Purple at the very least and the New congressional district just may be Red. (And a
ReplyDeleteRepublican Gov.
Wouldn’t that be nice!!
DeleteI can live with that. FJB. FKB.
DeleteBS. I live in Oregon and they are on par to elect some Rachel Madcow-looking far-Left broad. I wouldn't count on much changing here in Oregon, and certainly NOT a Republican Governor. Multnomah County would never allow it.
Delete“Much can and will happen between now an Election Day, November 8, that could affect voting…”
ReplyDeleteGood irony play there, Big D. The things you list HAVE ALREADY HAPPENED.
Come November, we may be wishing for the good old days of June.
DeleteMuch can and will happen between now an Election Day, November 8, that could affect voting. The stock market could crash. Inflation will hit double digits. Gasoline will hit $5 a gallon by July 4th nationally. Stores started running out of basic products in early 2022. Crime ravages D-run cities. And Biden will make another gaffe hourly.
DeleteYou forgot war with Russia.
ReplyDeleteCrime could ravage our cities.
Any more?
War with Russia?
DeleteWhat war with Russia?
I haven't heard the sirens go off cuz icbms are over the arctic. No news about troops parachuting into Moscow.
A lesson for you edoucher: Don't get high on your own supply.
An oldie but a goodie, LG!
DeleteXiden and his merry fools have admitted that Ukraine is a proxy war with Russia. Putin just hasn't issued payback.
DeleteWell by that token, Afghanistan in the 80's was a war w/ Russia while we armed the mujahideen (precursors to the taliban).
DeleteSyria was a war w/ Russia as obama supplied the rebellious factions against the Russian backed al-Bashir government.
The cold war, the Cuban missile crisis, etc...
A lot of tension and 3rd party fuckery, JR, but not war.
I hope that you are right, but fear that the fix will in again this Fall. If you read Emerald Robinson's substack on the recent Georgia Primary, she highlights a democrat primary in Dekalb County, GA where the 3rd place Michelle Long Spears (great last name) turned out to be the 1st place one upon a hand recount. ER pointed out that she got 2k more votes in the recount, but if you look more closely, it's even worse than that. Of the 15,449 votes tallied in the hand recount, there were over 5,300 "miscounted" votes which is an error rate of over 34%! What's even more disturbing is I called a friend of mine who lives there and they are not using ballot scanners where you mark a ballot with a marker and then scan them in like we do here in FL, but you make all their selections on a touch screen which then prints out a "record" of your votes along with a QR code which is then scanned. How in the world then can they have a 34%+ error rate in the machine count unless it's unbelievable negligence or downright election fraud? Unless this is examined and we also have spot hand audits, the party of chaos is not going to lose like everyone expects, even though these deserve to be totally wiped out for their destroy America policies.
ReplyDeleteThat's what they said about Youngkin.
DeleteGA is lost, hence D's targeted it in 2020. R's must focus on OH, PA, NC and then NM, AZ and NV.
DeleteAnd this just in: from Conservative Brief (you can find the link on whatfinger) scotus voted 6-3 that Pa can allow the undated ballots to be counted. It opens the door on errors, omissions and dare I say fraud to affect the election outcomes.
DeleteMikey is right. Unless we have some serious, and by that I mean boots on the ground and local law enforcement arresting folks, we will have a repeat of the last go around. I for one won't stand for another steal. I am sure I am not alone in this mindset. If people like Pelosi and Schumer think they cannot be 'Kavanaughed', they had better think again.
Delete@Mikeyinfl - I read a while back that the QR codes were all encoded for the democrat pick both the presidential and the senatorial races. I don't know how true that is, but it would certainly explain the discrepancies.
DeleteThe stacking of the house and taking of the senate will accomplish what? McConnell and McCarthy leadership?
ReplyDeleteThe power structure will not change significantly. It is compromised and will remain so. The RINOs will ensure nothing really happens other than a lot of bluster.
So correct
DeleteDon't misunderestimate Biden
ReplyDeleteDon't count your chickens until the ballots are harvested.
ReplyDeleteI just dont understand how we can predict much less hope any Election will be fair the Machines have always been rigged
ReplyDeleteRealClear Politics would use a survey report written in crayon if it made Republicans look bad. When Scott Rasmussen owned and ran Rasmussen he was never included. Now that the current version of Rasmussen is showing Joey Ice Cream 4 and 5 points higher than Quinipiac and the other garbage outfits they are included.
ReplyDelete"Much can and will happen between now an Election Day, November 8, that could affect voting. The stock market could crash. Inflation could hit double digits. Gasoline could hit $5 a gallon. Stores could start running out of basic products. Crime could ravage our cities. And Biden could make another gaffe."
ReplyDeleteTheres no 'could' about it. The rate of inflation and the factors driving it ensure that by Nov. inflation will be above 10%. Gasoline is already over $5.00 a gallon in many states. Stores are already runningout of food. Crime is ravaging every major city, almost all of which are democrat controlled. Biden's gaffes are increasing as his senility deepens. The only possible exception is whether the stock market will crash. It just recorded its 10th straight week of declines..
The largest barefoot skiing tournament in the world is held every August in northern Wisconsin. The competitors can fall in many different ways, but the most dreaded is when they catch a toe on a wave and do a faceplant. Many times the observant spectator can see the waves building in the footers path and get cameras up to capture the coming carnage. Faceplants have been known to cut scalps, bruise cheeks, and even chip teeth. Even the politically unobservant can see the metaphorical waves of trouble building as the democrats approach November 8th. After their coming faceplant, they’ll be lucky if they still have a nose.
ReplyDeletehttps://knottlane.com/WeeklySummaryPages/Footstock2021.jpg
Today, Republicans have 180 safe seats and Democrats have 149.
ReplyDeletePerhaps someday the Republicans will earn the right to have 300 safe seats to less than 40 for the Democrats. They won't earn it watching the Democrats destroying the fabric of a free nation without actively dong everything in their power
to eliminate these enemies of our freedoms!
Don, you finished with 'things that could happen.' Well, I just paid $5.09 for 87 octane in the heartland. Also, the thing that I keep wondering will happen before November is whether we will be at war ... kinetic war somewhere. Using the old Clinton (Bill) playbook to distract with booms and blood.
ReplyDeleteI am making $92 an hour working from home. i was greatly surprised at the same time as my neighbour advised me she changed into averaging $ninety five however I see the way it works now. I experience mass freedom now that I'm my non-public boss.
ReplyDeleteThat is what I do.. Www.Profit97.Com
If the Republicans win bigly and act like the cowards and reactionaries they usually act like then we conservatives will once again be deflated. They MUST go after the administrative state and the Intel agency leadership or nothing will change.
ReplyDelete