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Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Bannon predicts a 100-seat gain

Gallup reported that 49% of Americans identified as Democrats and 40% as Republicans when 2021 began.

When the year ended, 42% were Democrats and 47% were Republicans -- a 14 point swing. Gallup never saw such a shift in the 31 years it has tracked party affiliation.

How that plays out in November's congressional races is anyone's guess.

But Steve Bannon is optimistic.

He said, "The Gingrich revolution took place in November 1994. That polling they’re talking about occurred in January 1995 it was the post-Gingrich revolution. This is the type of tectonic plate shift we got. Remember, we are not just about killing the Biden administration, that’s dead, only Mitch McConnell keeps it on life support. Because they stole the election, the great irony and the way divine providence is working here is to show us exactly how radical they were. 

"We have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to destroy root and branch the Democrat party. That is what this is telling us right now. If we stick to the plan and stay focused on their illegitimacy if you stay focused on their horrible policies if you stay focused on the fact a 70-year nurse African American nurse goes to a hospital and is beaten to death on the street because the Soros DAs won’t put guys in jail…We can shatter the Democrat Party with 100 seats in the House."

That is a stunning forecast because there appears to be so few vulnerable seats. The Cook Political Report says only 8 Democrat seats are toss-ups plus 5 that lean or are likely Republican. It lists 6 Republican seats as toss-ups and 1 leans Democrat.

But Cook missed the Republican shellacking of Obama in 2010, and the Gingrich Revolution of 1994.

DC-centric media always underestimates Republicans because the pundits and reporters do not understand conservatism. They think George Will and Bill Kristol are still relevant.

Mostly, they do not know just how fed up the country is with Democrats and Biden. Salena Zito tries to tell them, but they know everything. Just ask them.

The left is bitter because Democrats have not delivered their pie in the sky. Also, Democrat catering to blacks, LGBTs and illegal aliens are turning off Hispanics and Asians.

The rest of us tire of covid and the race wars. Trump supporters are growing in number as people come to realize Democrats cheated him out of the presidency. Losing Afghanistan and rising inflation further damage Democrats.

Finally, Democrats foam at the mouth too often. Biden's calling those who disagree with him George Wallace, Bull Connor and Jefferson Davis. He is coming off as a clanking, cranky, out-of-touch geezer. 

Republicans could pull off a 1994 when they gained 54 seats or even a 2010 when they had a net gain of 63 seats.

But that will occur only if the pieces fall in place. Republicans had the element of surprise back then. Democrats see this one coming.

As for 100 seats, no one has pulled off a triple-digit flip since the 19th century.

Even the election of FDR in the Great Depression in 1932 did not do this. Democrats fell short as they gained 97 seats. Six years later, Republicans gained 81 seats, but Democrats still held a comfortable 262-169 majority.

Nope, you have to go back to 1894 to see such a sea change. That was a special circumstance in which Democrat Grover Cleveland presided over the Panic of 1893, a global economic collapse. Republicans more than doubled their House seats by gaining 130 seats. They not only wiped out a 94-seat advantage Democrats had, but created a 254-93 majority.

20 years earlier, Democrats pulled off a 94-seat House flip following the Panic of 1873.

Notice the pattern?

Bad economies lead to political change. It indeed is the economy, stupid.

I would not write off Bannon's prediction, even though I would settle for half that because that would give Republicans 262 congressmen -- the most in 94 years.

With 100 House seats, though, you get a large enough majority to expel Pelosi, Waters, Schiff, Swalwell, Nadler, and anyone else.

And Republicans could impeach Biden.

But we are dreaming now. Biden can start a war in the hopes of saving his party.

48 comments:

  1. Cleveland’s reign was my morning dump reading yesterday, Big D! (From Paul Johnson’s book) I love the synchronicity forming! Why it’s almost as if…someone bigger than any of us is in control.

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  2. Winning a huge majority in the House would indeed be sweet. However, as was mentioned, we have the likes of McConnell and his henchmen that will protect the swamp and status quo.
    The good people of Kentucky could help with that but if that fails, we could get him removed from leadership if we remove some of those henchmen, like Shelley Capito. She has her head stuck so far up McConnell's, it's no damn wonder why she's so ugly. If we can't get the big fish, let's try to get some of the smaller ones.

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    Replies
    1. Hate to tell you, Jeffery, but an influx of newbies in the Senate would dilute McConnell's clout.

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    2. I see you are off your meds again. McConnell controls all the RNC money and who receives it. Employing those kinds of tactics is how he's managed to be longest serving Senate Republican leader in U.S. history.

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    3. Shelley’s cold product. She won’t begetting my vote next go-round.

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  3. It's unfortunate the GOP doesn't have someone as intelligent and charismatic as Gingrich to lead the assault.

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  4. Bannon may be correct in his conclusions as things stand today, but he's engaging in one of the biggest mistakes political pundits make ... Static analysis. .... A lot can change in the months between now and November ... but two biggies can swing the election in the democrats favor.

    Don, you mentioned one ... a war ... the other is a complete end to the pandemic. The demented imbecile can go on TV ... on or about Memorial Day ... and declare an end to the Covid-19 pandemic, an end to all mandates, vaxes, masks, quarantine, travel, etc ... this allows plenty of time before the mid-terms for a return to some semblance of normalcy, and a restocking of grocery store shelves.

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    Replies
    1. What Bannon is failing in doing is realizing that there are only so many swing districts. I look to the democrat retirements and know the House will swing. And the Senate will as well, but not in numbers Bannon predicts.

      As for things that can happen, sure, things can always happen. The pandemic cannot end because way too many people are invested in its continuation. Local public health officials who have tasted power and are in no rush to let that go. Big pharma has to keep booster, booster, booster, or revenue goes down, down, down. School unions need it to extract power and concessions from local school districts.

      No, the pandemic will not be let go by the powers that be. The rest of the world will let it go, and in fact are starting to in ever increasing numbers, but the pandemic class will hold on in their cold stony fingers the pandemic until the bitter end.

      And the midterms will come before they realize they are the seeds of their own destruction. Supply lines are still out four months from China. They would have to improve in just a few months for it to have any hope of improving the economy to make a difference. And the "hot" labor market is cooling, as the ADP economist notes before all the jobs lost at the beginning of the pandemic have been recovered.

      FJB is indeed truly ... ahem ... f***ed.

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    2. War didn’t do much for either Bushies, did it? The geezer lost and the doofus son had to win through the notsoSupreme Court cretins.

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    3. Daddy Bush enjoyed 90%+ approval ratings in 1st Quarter of 1991 after 1st Gulf war, so he won reelection in a landslide!... Wait what???

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  5. Bannon has pretty much turned Breitbart into a clown car, so what he says should be taken with a Lot of salt.

    Democrat catering to blacks

    A lot of blacks would disagree with that.

    Finally, Democrats foam at the mouth too often. Biden's calling those who disagree with him George Wallace, Bull Connor and Jefferson Davis. He is coming off as a clanking, cranky, out-of-touch geezer.

    What few younger ones there are (talk about the elephants' graveyard), are just as bad.

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    Replies
    1. I don t know ...biteme telling americans that george floyd had a bigger impact on history than MLK jr is puzzling

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    2. Well, the dems don't seem to listen much to what MLK said anymore. So I'm thinking its not nearly that puzzling.

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    3. A lot of blacks may disagree with that but they will vote dem regardless. As bad as NY and CA are they continually elect democrats. Same thing.

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  6. We can only hope. But a week in politics is a long time, never mind months. However, if Grandpa Simpson keeps doing what he's doing, he is aiding the cause of the other side. Things do have a funny way of evening out. It's almost as if there is a higher power in charge!

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  7. Maybe. It's harder to steal all individual state elections. The presidential election is unique, the only nation-wide one, stolen in 6-7 cities.

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  8. The 1994 flip of 54 House seats was preceded by 29 Democrats declining to run for reelection. So far this year, 26 are dropping out and it's still only January. Bannon has a point.

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  9. To gain 100+ seats, credible GOP candidates have to be willing to challenge supposedly ultra-safe Democratic seats in time for ultra-early primaries, which are a built-in incumbent protection tool.

    I don't see that happening to that level. Maybe -- maybe -- it can get to that level in 2022 and 2024 combined.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. do you think New Yorkers both city and state will vote automatically for dem candidates after the complete mess the dems have made of the state? dems brought NY DA who love criminals more than tax payers,covid nursing home deaths, mask mandates

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    2. I've held that if you get real, honest, MAGA candidates in primary elections, there is a distinct possibility of unseating Dems. -in the blue side of Oregon. trouble is we have RINOs in charge of the Republican hierarchy. Those guys first.

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  10. "Biden's calling those who disagree with him George Wallace, Bull Connor and Jefferson Davis." When I heard this the other day I was stunned at how tone deaf it was for Biden to make this comparison. All three of the men cited were Democrats.

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    Replies
    1. Biden is an idiot.

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    2. Biden is just sent out to read whatever is on the teleprompter. I'd guess the "kids" who wrote the speech didn't even know Wallace, Connor & Davis were Democrats. They had been taught these men were "evil", so they Had to be Republicans.

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  11. I've grown to like Bannon. Love his optimism.

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  12. All well-and-good - but let's hear about plans to DO something with majorities like that; and plans to NOT be like the post-2010 situation of just continually whining about not being able to do anything because they didn't have the Senate or the WH (and then doing absolutely nothing with it when they had those too).

    The post-1994 group was actually EFFECTIVE (despite not having the WH) - and don't forget that a big part of that was Newt Gingrich's best idea ever, the "Contract with America." They delivered 9 of the 10 things on the list. It would be a great idea to have something like that put into play this summer - something better than "We won't be as bad as these clowns"...

    The other thing is that in a situation like this one with the weak-and-incompetent clown show at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, the new House Speaker has a great chance to take on the role of virtually being the Prime Minister (even though no such office actually exists, the incompetence vacuum in the WH makes this feasible-by-necessity). Most of the folks in Congress have a "legislative personality" and aren't really up to the task - but since the Speaker can be elected from outside the Congress, I can think of someone with executive experience who would be a great choice for that role... :-)

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    Replies
    1. Wish Republicans had the guts to elect Trump speaker if the occasion were to arise.

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    2. Too many RINOs.

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  13. Mollie @MZHemingway

    27th Democrat to announce retirement ...

    Jeremy B. White @JeremyBWhite

    NEW: Democrat @RepMcNerney bows out of re-election. @JoshHarder widely expected to shift to McNerney seat for re-elect, which would open #CA13 for ambitious Central Valley Dems in #CALeg

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  14. I only saw the man who is most responsible for all this mentioned once and that's President Trump. If he is still in good health and choses to run again his coat tails will be the longest of all.

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  15. We need the republicans to have massive margins on both houses to counter the Mavericks and idiots that run as republicans and legislate as liberals.

    We don’t need McCarthy as speaker or the turtle as majority leader. Only MAGA supporters need apply.

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  16. Mollie @MZHemingway
    And that was quick -- here's the 28th Democrat to announce retirement.

    Congressman Jim Langevin won’t run for re-election.

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  17. Even if it is 100, far to many of our Republican congresscritters are far to willing to go along to get along and thus get their unfair share out of the pork barrel.

    I don't know about yours but ours, Alaska's, Don Young, used to have a pair, solid brass, but they've long since shrunk away to almost nothing after almost 50 years in D.C.

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  18. The Democrats are NOT catering to blacks. They are specifically catering to militant leftist blacks...BLM, Panthers, etc. The Dems are openly antagonistic to the, in some cases formerly, middle class working blacks who's businesses and jobs were burned down.

    The House the Democrats are really burning is their own.

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  19. So far the GOP is on a course to screw the pooch in 2022. Trump demands that DeSantis kiss his ring(?) and has his sh*t disturber (Roger Stone) pile on. Trump extols the virtues of Kevin McCarthy (RUFKM?), endorses the swamp creature Perdue (French for "lost") in GA, and generally touts the wonderful vaccines that have already killed more Americans than all other vaccines combined over the past 30 years? Looking good, Orange Man.

    I love Steve Bannon, but right as he is about the Dems astounding evil, he has a blind spot for the GOP's stupidity. If the GOP does win in 2022, they will be like the Robert Redford character at the end of the movie, "The Candidate." After Redford wins, he looks over at his campaign manager and says, "Now what?" Like Redford, the 2022 GOP has no effing balls or clues what do with power.

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