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Wednesday, May 05, 2021

Don't sugarcoat 2022


Ballot Harvesting Season in 2020.

The conventional wisdom is Republicans will sweep the House races next year and gain at least one Senate seat to take control of both houses of Congress.

I won't blow smoke up your exhaust pipe because 2022 will be one tough election.

Between a media that relishes lying, to a corrupt court afraid of being mobbed at home, to a Democrat Party that will ruthlessly churn out fake votes like confetti for a tickertape parade, the game is stacked against Republicans.

Historically, a president's party loses plenty of seats in the House in his first midterm and also a few Senate seats.

In the 11 midterms between 1974 and 2014, the president's party had a net loss of Senate seats each time. President Donald John Trump broke that losing streak by knocking off four incumbent Democrat senators (the most since 1934 saw FDR knock off 8 incumbent Republican senators).

But the aptly named Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics pointed out Biden could do it again.

Republicans have to defend 20 seats, Democrats 14.

Biden's job approval is a key. It is at 52% right now.

Trende wrote, "Biden isn’t that far off a job approval where he could see significant gains in the Senate -- enough to almost certainly jettison the filibuster and enact a wide-ranging agenda. Just four points higher, at 56%, Democrats would be expected to gain between two and five seats. But he also isn’t that far off a job approval rating where things would go very poorly: If he enters the midterms at 45% -- roughly where presidents have been for the last four midterm elections -- Democrats would lose between one and four seats, possibly setting Republicans up for a massive Senate majority after the 2024 elections."

56% seems doable for Biden because he is a difficult man to hate.

Plus the economy is bound to be better. A 5% unemployment rate next year will please people. The dropping labor participation rate will please people even more because collecting a government check frees up time to play Tour of Duty. 

The House looks better for Republicans because Texas and Florida gained three congressional seats while New York and California lost two.

Democrats have a 222-213 edge. A net gain of just 5 seats makes Frank Luntz's roommate Kevin McCarthy speaker.

But court challenges to redistricting by Democrats will be many. While the Supreme Court has recently developed a disdain for interfering, state courts haven't. Election Day next year is November 8. Do not be surprised if some of the challenges are not settled in court until November 7. 

On top of that, Democrats will try to litigate every single anti-voter fraud law states pass. Democrats believe all they need is Jim Clyburn to declare a law Jim Crow to have it reversed. They may be right.

Most of all, Democrats know how to cheat.

Learn to ballot harvest, Republicans. Learn every dirty trick Democrats pulled in 2020 because Democrats will cheat again knowing there are now zero consequences for getting caught. Until such time as the Rule of Law returns, Republicans must be willing to get down and dirty. There is no high road. There is no principle. Just win, baby.

And lest we forget who controls the FBI, I will remind you it is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the Democrat Party. Expect a bunch of October Surprises in 2022 as FBI agents now perform the opposition research for Democrats.

Those expecting another 2010 tsunami are fools. Democrats learned. They are not going to give Republicans an issue to rally behind.

Tea Party members also learned. They delivered the House to Republicans and got nothing but grief. They saddled up again in 2016, 2018, and 2020. What did it get them?

Liz Cheney voted to impeach President Trump and remains the No. 3 House Republican.

I am not saying Democrats will slow down their drive to socialism. They just will be more nimble and stealthy. They also know we suffer fatigue.

But there is hope. It will take patience and action.

Video games always have a cheat code. Republicans have to find the cheat codes in this one -- and use them, use them, use them.

72 comments:

  1. "Video games always have a cheat code. Republicans have to find the cheat codes in this one -- and use them, use them, use them."

    Of course, these will be the cases judges will accept.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Actually, they don't.

      Some, maybe, but by no means all.

      Delete
  2. I am not so sure that short of a few 1946 Battle of Athens type engagements will make a change. As has been shown in PA we can't even trust the sheriffs now. So how many people who violated election laws in 2020 have been prosecuted with 923 witnesses stepping forward. None concerning the presidential ballots.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Don doesn't realize that the populist/globalist tide has flipped back to populism. The flip to globalism occurred last April and lasted a year.
    Just recently:

    Rose McGowan calls the Democratic party a cult.
    Billy Eilish puts on a dress.
    Bill Maher praises Ron DeSantis.
    Lebron James's tweet universally condemned.
    Meghan Markle bloom is off the rose.
    Liz Cheney on the chopping block.
    Arizona election audit.
    Texas and Florida pick up seats.
    Trump displays his new site.
    Academy Awards ratings crater. Ditto CNN.
    Retired French generals threaten military coup.

    This is just the beginning.
    When the tide turns, the trend remains for a long time. "There is a tide in the affairs of
    men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. knifecatcher, Right, but judges have to flip back, too. That honest judge in AZ deserves a trophy for keeping the recount on track.

      Delete
    2. The tide turned back in '16. The Demos are trying to reverse it by stealing the last election.

      All the stuff mentioned above is just a continuation of '16.

      And judges aren't going to "flip" anywhere.

      Crooked ones have to be exposed, prosecuted, convicted, and imprisoned.

      Delete
    3. "The tide turned back in '16."

      The tide turned in 2014 when:

      Republican Eric Cantor became the first sitting House majority leader to lose in a primary election since the position was created in 1899.

      Delete
    4. "And judges aren't going to "flip" anywhere."

      I disagree. Good judges get flipped by threats and blackmail. Example, Roberts with Obamacare. I agree that they seldom get flip back. Should we all have to cross our fingers and hope for an honest judge every time an important case hits the courts? That's where we are.

      Delete
    5. Edutcher is right, exposing the crooked judges is essential. Soros began electing judges because he knew the way to overcome elected representatives and laws he didn't like was to elect judges who didn't follow the law or respect elected officials. Our system is base on fair, impartial legal system - undermine that and you can do anything - lawlessness is in.

      Delete
  4. Also:

    COVID ends. Fauci flopping.
    Media called out on fake news: Russian bounty and Guliani warning.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Events do not just happen, but arrive by appointment ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Epictetus - No great thing is created suddenly.

      Delete
    2. This is a theological as well as a political point.

      On the more pedantic level, changes happen when someone (s) is willing to stand, lead, and sacrifice it all to win.

      Those leaders seem to be sadly rare.

      Delete
  6. Many of us have seen a two tiered system of justice in this country. Just compare the Jan. 6th riot and how it's participants were treated compared to summer riots of BLM and Antifa. How many of those participants spent time in solitary confinement?

    I agree with "Cynic" who commented earlier. If we suggest Republicans bend or break election laws like the Democrats do, they will likely pay the price in court. Democrats will continue to get a free pass.

    If we don't fix this fraud and corruption of the election process, we will be a one party country.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The only way that stops is with an uprising of the people.

      It may only need to be non-violent, but too many of the crazies who support the Demos are making noises like they want to man a machine gun tower in the gulag.

      People are still buying firearms like it's going to be outlawed, so I think it's a matter of when, not if.

      Delete
    2. And ammo is still nowhere to be found…

      Delete
    3. I agree basically with Ed.

      Lech Walenza (sp?) and the Polish uprising might be a template here. Maybe.

      Delete
  7. 56% seems doable for Biden because he is a difficult man to hate.

    What? Who do you (whoever wrote this) think you're kidding?

    Nobody likes the lying dogfaced pony soldier and they never have, not even the Demos. He tried 3 times to be PUS and the only reason he got it was because all the old white people in the party appointed him and then they had to steal the election.

    Biden's job approval is a key. It is at 52% right now.

    Again, according to whom? If he does show up some place, the "crowd" never gets into triple digits.

    Learn ever dirty trick Democrats pulled in 2020 because Democrats will pull them again knowing there are now zero consequences for getting caught.

    They didn't ballot harvest in '20, they manufactured ballots by the tens of millions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good point. They have ten ways to cheat.

      Delete
    2. Yep. I can't understand why Surber and others use polling as an indicator of anything now. It's like taking CNNs word for their honest journalism. Just stop with these absurd political games about pollimg and elections. We have no electoral options. With a very few exceptions there are no Republicans willing to stand up to McCarthy let alone the Deep State goons. Who cares if the GOP controls Congress? It's Uniparty all around. Nothing short of a collapse is going to change anything in DC.

      Delete
    3. In fairness, I don’t think Don is quoting polls as the final word, only as a heuristic for the moment. The theme of his post is looking at historical data with pollong; I’m sure he understands we are in a different era now.

      One can use polls as a starting point IF they are aware thaf the past isn’t always predictive.

      Delete
  8. When I hear or read how we actual Americans should "fight back," I wonder how we can to that without going to jail. Can you imagine going to Portland and carrying a pro-Trump sign while setting a federal building on fire? Nope, we law abiding citizens are relegated to bitching about our situation in places like this. Getting kinetic isn't what we do...yet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We do have the right peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

      If they gun us down, then the gloves come off.

      Delete
    2. Ed, how's that working out for us so far now? The demonrats' designated thugs can have their "mostly peaceful" looting, burning assemblies, no problem. Some Conservatives went to the capitol to peacefully petition the government and one of them was shot dead by a government cop, I guess for trespassing. Ya think maybe that was a little hint that the government dislikes conservatives?

      Delete
    3. The first point is it isn't the government, it's the Left. We knew that already.

      Howsomever, the right is still there and once the good weather comes, we'll see what happens.

      Gunning down innocent, unarmed people rarely gets the results intended. And there are millions of smartphones out there capable of recording what happens.

      That's the lesson of Ashli Babbitt.

      Delete
    4. Ed’s right. The present situation is a tinderbox made of increasingly angry flyover patriots.

      Optics can be powerful catalysts.

      The American populace has generally been slow to start a fight (preferring to live their lives and be left alone) but pushed to a certain point can blow right up in the face of lawlessness.

      Japan learned that the hard way.

      This generation may not be as tough as the Greatest Generation but most deplorables are as fiercely patriotic and freedom loving.

      Delete
  9. The high job approval numbers are based upon crazy split polls - one was D +31. So no - Biden doesn't have any goodwill.

    The issue is that the GOP has more seats to defend than the dems, though even with that the dems have more suspect seats than the GOP does. Probably no more than 2 seats available for the GOP to pick up. But the House will be a bloodbath for the dems, and RINO's as well. It won't fix in a day, but the path is there. It is starting in some of the states. But we need to keep pressing the issue.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Every seat is up for the House.

      Delete
    2. I should have been more specific - I was referencing the Senate in terms of seats to defend.

      Delete
  10. Biden has $6 trillion to buy votes with and Soros and other dark money Leftists will have hundreds of billions to pump into local elections. But...

    Inflation and CPI increases will be reality.
    Dems will still have the Police-hate noose around their necks. Repubs will be the law and order party.
    Immigration will only get worse.
    Something is going to have to give with the Fed.
    China, China, China.
    Businesses are already moving jobs out (GM & Ford) and pulling back on major expansions in U.S. Headquarters will begin expatriating soon.
    Jobs will start being filled by illegals and it won't be the dirty little secret it used to be.
    Republicans had only a few months to react and litigate Covid necessary changes to absentee balloting in 2020. They have time and Arizona audit this time around.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Lots can and will happen in the 18 months before the 2022 elections. Too early to start making predictions about the outcomes. Immigration is a key issue and likely to remain so especially with the actual CRISIS on the border. I'm not an economic expert but I continue to believe that the economic "recovery" such as it is will be soft one -- there are many areas of underlying weakness. Businesses are hurting for workers due to the COVID unemployment benefits; increasing energy costs (due solely to Biden policies, BTW); increasing food costs; increasing crime rates all over the country even without widespread riots ala summer 2020. Despite what the media and Dems (but I repeat myself) try to say, we and many millions of voters will know that Biden is responsible for these problems, not Trump. We must fight on the local and state levels for appropriate laws and freedoms to combat the left. Agree Republicans must be prepared to get down and dirty with the Democrats. The time for staying "above the fray" is over.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I am not convinced that Biden's approval rating is 52 percent. Nope.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It isn't. They are over sampling the Dems.

      Delete
  13. Apart from God's grace i doubt there will be a 2022 election...our Republic is no longer a Republic...stolen by a communist coup and being further destroyed daily by the left's cabal, our enemies are waiting to obliterate us with cyber attack and/or kinetic attack...it'll happen in due course..

    ReplyDelete
  14. You can like the man, even feel empathy for him, and still hate the policies he and his toadies are enacting. The job approval rating is more the former than the latter in my opinion.

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  15. Biden in his dotage has become nothing more than a sock puppet. His ventriloquists need to be exposed and scrutinized.

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  16. 52% approval rating MY ASS. More like 32%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree. Biden may have a 52% rating in solid blue cities and that could be a stretch.

      Delete
  17. Any system than can lift biden out of the garbage heap, and install him in THE top position of the nations government, then sure as hell can also MAKE SURE the Repubs stay in the minority next yr. Sad but true, and its where we are in the USA concerning elections. Yes, in a normal world, the party in charge of the WH loses seats, has happened over and over. But after last yrs stolen election with those in authority not caring one whit, this is not normal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The dems cannot control the house districts because too many of them are too far away from blue urban machine hellholes. Word on the street is we will see more dem retirements from the House as they realize they cannot hold.

      Delete
    2. They've been doing it up to now.

      So which street has this word?

      Delete
  18. The key will be where the 20 Republican seats are. Those in liberal run or poorly run Republican states (hello Georgia) are at risk of the fraud machine.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The big issues for the GOP are retirements in Pennsylvania and to a lessor extent NC. The dems have Warnock in Georgia who is a loon, and with the election integrity changes already in place, plus people seeing him work, he won't win.

      Duckworth in Illinois is not well liked. She could be picked off by a semi moderate republican there. My guess is the Senate stays 50/50 or 51/49. Either way. Biden's policies are not very popular, as we are seeing in the few elections that have popped up. If the dems struggle in Virginia, that could be a precursor to trouble next year.

      Delete
    2. A lot of FUD the analysts don't see.

      Delete
  19. Don wrote, "56% seems doable for Biden because he is a difficult man to hate." I don't hate him. but I despise, detest, and totally distrust the Democrat Party for which he is the figurehead.
    As I keep saying, my view of the GOP is that it is "The GO Along to GET Along with the Dems" Party. I trust it not

    ReplyDelete
  20. Alot of us lifelong Republicans (Conservatives) have left the Party given the GOP's lack of effort to counter The Big Lie of 2020. My wife and I simply will not vote for someone just because of an (R) next to their name. In fact, unless they are a clear and outspoken and believable America First candidate, they get no vote. We need to purge the RINO's even if that means losing a few rounds.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So your refusal to vote will really solve the problem? Well then you and your wife's refusal to vote IS the problem thus enabling the Democrats to win. WAKE UP SHEEPLE!

      Delete
    2. He didn’t say he wouldn’t vote; only for a certain type of Republican.

      Delete
    3. He didn’t say he wouldn’t vote; only for a certain type of Republican.

      Delete
    4. He didn’t say he wouldn’t vote; only for a certain type of Republican.

      Delete
  21. I agree. I don't think those of us on the Right quite understand just how far to the left this country has drifted in such a short time.

    People are totally on board with same-sex marriage, "bake that cake", defunding the police, etc. etc. Consider the leftwing educational policies adopted even by conservative constituencies in red states.

    I think the GOP has a chance to gain the House, and perhaps the Dems are scared, as witness retirment of Cheri Bustos and several of her colleagues, but I also think the Senate is in jeopardy, as are a handful of governorships.

    The GOP must indeed learn how to play dirty and realize that it isn't good enough just to stop the bad stuff, but to enact some good stuff as well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I also think that even if the Republicans win the House, it won't be by anything near the margins they previously held. More like the razor-thin advantage the Dems have now.

      Delete
  22. Until republicans start saying the truth about what's going on, they don't deserve to win a goddam thing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you really think then can? FB, TW, and MSM will censor them.

      Delete
  23. Don, why so negative? How about throwing some more water on the fire that is building?

    ReplyDelete
  24. The GOP needs to bypass the media and spend the money to advertise our message on radio, TV, and internet. Microtarget the voters we need to flip!

    ReplyDelete
  25. I don't know- I find Biden easy to hate.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hate implies respect. No, I don't hate Biden. He inspires mild revulsion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The man can't even finish a sentence. He bumbles and stumbles almost every word he says. He has an "hearing aid" so his handlers tell him what to say and do.

      Delete
  27. I don't think Republicans should try to ballot harvest or the equivalent. The reason is that the lop-sided nature of the justice system will mean that Republican cheating will actually be prosecuted and then the narrative will switch to "There was no cheating in 2020 but it was the Republicans who really wanted to cheat".

    ReplyDelete
  28. Anyone who believes that republicans will EVER win another election is completely unaware of current events. The democrat party is full-on criminal and they have the media and the courts behind them. Our republic is lost. God save the republic.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am going hardcore and rather controversial when I make this statement: The media is the enemy of the people "Donald Trump". What has to happen but it won't is that the military has to take over the media. Oh you may say censorship nope the military will make the MSM report EVERYTHING. How? By dangling the news employees pay and 401K in front of them. Then only then will our republic be saved. I know this is controversial but it needs to happen.
      NOTE: Some of you will think I'm crazy but just really think about it.

      Delete
  29. Sorry, I have no faith in the Republican goobers running the RNC.

    They got their heads handed to them by the mistress of low cunning the cretinous, the bovine Stacey Abrams.

    That's like getting pick pocketed by an armless man.

    Does anyone actually think Republicans whose slogan is "turn the other cheek no matter how many times you get cold cocked" can beat The Democrat Party whose slogan is "by any and all means necessary, no matter how dirty" can win?

    The Republican dweebs keep bringing gifts to a gunfight and wonder why they're bleeding.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Frankly, if Biden is really at 52%, the nation and the system are done for anyway...without God and family as the basis for governance and law, it's over. Judeo-Christian Western Civ had a nice run, but self-destructed through our neglect I'm afraid.

    ReplyDelete
  31. It's not going to happen: If we believe the expert testimony before Congress and State legislatures, then we can already see that the Republican Party is not doing that much to resolve the universal cheating of the DNC. There's not much time to resolve these issues. It seems that the GOP is not interested in acknowledging there is an issue of on-going cheating that swings the elections to favor only one Party. That's collusion, GOP- by the way...

    ReplyDelete
  32. McCarthy won't be Speaker if the GOP takes the House. They'll elect Trump. First order of business will be to impeach Biden/Harris. Evidence of voter fraud will be shown in the Senate, where Biden/Harris will be convicted, removed from office, making DJT President two years from now. It's gonna be great!

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  34. Be a shame if the 17A militia had to rent Cessna's or something...

    ReplyDelete
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