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Friday, November 13, 2020

Hispanics kept Texas red

On October 29, Time published, "Yes, Texas Could Go Blue This Year. Here's What We Know About Biden's Chances — and What We Don't." 

The magazine said, "Two of the most respected prognosticators — the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections — both shifted Texas from leaning or tilting Republican to a genuine toss up, while the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato places it in Leans Republican, just one category to the right. These ratings in themselves are extraordinary, given that the state has been reliably red for decades. The Biden campaign clearly recognizes the opportunity, announcing that vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris will travel to Texas on Friday."

Cook and Sabato got another election wrong. Democrats did not take control of the Senate. Democrats did not have a net gain in the House; they lost them.

But Time considers them experts because everyone in DC considers them experts because everyone in DC says they are experts. This is how expertise works in DC.

That Cook and Sabato continue to be wrong more often than right does not matter because competence is the last thing the media cares about.

Buried in the Time report was a quote from Joshua Blank, research director at the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

He said, "Republican consultants aren’t afraid of high turnout."

The story continued, "it’s not a forgone conclusion that non-voting Texans would be heavily supportive of Democrats. This is a particularly common misconception regarding eligible Hispanic voters, plenty of whom, polling by Blank’s organization and others suggests, are generally supportive of the Republican Party."

Cook and Sabato got Paragraph 2.

Blank got Paragraph 13.

Blank also got the election right.

The election in Texas was predictably the same as the last election. Real Clear Politics listed 4 Republican congressional races as tossups. Only 1 was close. Republicans carried the 23 House seats they had, and lost the 13 they didn't have. Nothing changed. They won the Senate race. President Trump carried the state and its 38 electors.

The liberal Texas Monthly was crestfallen. It had two stories bemoaning the outcome.

The first said, "Texas Democrats emerged from Tuesday’s elections as losers who failed to restore progressive politics to a Republican state, no matter their efforts to frame results otherwise. Dreams of winning a handful of congressional races and taking command of the state House of Representatives vanished at the ballot box, and in both cases the party might net zero seats. Not a single Democrat up for statewide election, from the Texas Supreme Court down to the Railroad Commission, won. And though Joe Biden earned at least 1.4 million more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, the fantasy of his carrying the state was shattered and swept into a forty-year-old dustbin along with the hopes of every recent Democratic presidential campaign in Texas.

"To fully understand the Democrats’ losses, you need to go back two years. Much of the party’s enthusiasm for this cycle, and Republicans’ ultimate rebuttal to that enthusiasm, stemmed from Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate run. O’Rourke infused his campaign with hope that progressives could once again come to rule in Texas, and $80 million promptly flowed in from all over the country. When he ultimately came within three points of defeating his opponent, Ted Cruz, the smart Democratic operatives in Washington thought Texas might be in play if that kind of money were just professionally managed.

"But O’Rourke had kicked the proverbial hornet’s nest. The smart professional GOP operatives saw the same thing Democrats did."

2018 was a midterm election which is difficult on the president's party. Democrats could not pull it off. That should have told them any time and energy spent in Texas in 2020 was wasted.

The second Texas Monthly story was the killer.

It said, "Why Did Joe Biden Lose Ground With Latinos in South Texas? 

"Democrats have taken voters in the region for granted. This year, many were receptive to Donald Trump’s messaging on jobs, opportunity, and law enforcement."

By law enforcement, I believe they meant The Wall.

The story said, "While Biden held on to most of the state’s southernmost Latino-majority counties, his margins of victory were paltry compared with those of other recent presidential candidates in his party. In Starr County, where Hillary Clinton won by 60 points over Donald Trump in 2016, Biden eked out a 5-point victory. 

"In Hidalgo County, Biden won by 17 points after Clinton won by 41; in Cameron County he prevailed by 13 points against Clinton’s 33. In other nearby counties, he lost outright: Trump won Jim Wells, which Clinton carried by 10 points four years ago, by the same margin this year. By contrast, in the state’s metropolitan areas that account for the majority of Texas’s Latino population, Biden’s margins over Trump remained close to those that Clinton achieved in 2016."

Jessica Cisneros, who barely lost the Democrat primary to 8-term incumbent Congressman Henry Cuellar, told the monthly, "Being anti-Trump was obviously not enough. There are people who understand that Trump is anti-immigrant, they understand that he’s for the border wall. They’ve heard the comments he’s made about our community, and that wasn’t enough for them. For them, it’s about hearing policy solutions to the problems they have every day."

Republicans take note. Take care of Hispanics and they will take care of you.

39 comments:

  1. "Texas Democrats emerged from Tuesday’s elections as losers who failed to restore progressive politics to a Republican state..."

    RESTORE?

    These scam artists equate the Texan progressives of 80 years ago, when, for instance, installing electricity across the state was a progressive issue (see Robert Caro on LBJ*), and the AOC Communists in 2020!

    * Means of Ascent, The Years of Lyndon Johnson [1908-1973], Robert Caro [1930- ]; Borzoi [Alfred A. Knopf; Random House] (1990 hardcover).

    ReplyDelete
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    1. It's much like the way the Muslims consider any territory that once was under Islamic rule (Spain, Israel, etc.) to be forever part of their empire and needing to be "restored" to it.

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  2. Dissent is the highest form of patriotism.

    These folks are patriots.

    Did i miss something?

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  3. Texas Monthly? They can't even find good bbq in Texas. Hispanics are hard working people heavily into the trades and family.

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  4. I've worked with quite a few naturalized immigrant citizens from all over the planet, Bolivia to Russia. Every last one absolute despises "illegal immigration". They fought long and hard (and large amounts of $$$) to get here legally.
    And the threat of MS-13 is a real fear in the Hispanic community. There's more to the "Hispanics for Trump" theme than is being understood or reported. The hope for law and order is a big part of it.

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    1. Greg.. As an Americn Born hispanic...who voted for Trump in Florida.. Raised in the SF Bay area..I agree.. we value.. God, Country, Work ethic and pride in helping others. We are conservative by God.

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    2. My spouse who was a child of 8 yrs. when her country broke off from the old USSR. She would have tears in her eyes, when she spoke of the totalitarian rule (still does, if he lets herself) >>> her family are still there under the last dictator. She loves her adopted USA and has produced five little American born kiddies. She Loves PDJT and dares any socialist anti-Trumper to stand in line for hours (family members would have turns to hold a place in line) for sugar, flour, etc. She was doing that in at age 8, as well. She is excited for her citizenship in 2021 (She wants to be able to vote for 2024 for his 3rd term>>> We are writing him in!). ZB

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  5. Texas is NOT trending purple or blue. In Texas, Trump underperformed Romney (57-41), McCain (55-45), and likely his own total in 2016 (where he was an unknown quantity and where there was Gary Johnson and Edward McMullin pulling away right of center voters).
    Of course, his under performance in Texas, Arizona, and Georgia will be hand-waved away. There's always a ready excuse like people moving to Texas. There comes a point where the unwillingness or inability to seriously assess a candidate's strengths and weaknesses becomes a form of idolatry or cult of personality. I saw the same thing with Obama in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Pence espousing Trumpism probably would have done better this cycle-- a steady, calm, reassuring man who isn't distracted by having constant pissing matches with celebrities and "journalists" on Twitter. Too many people were convinced that idiot Biden was that steady, reassuring hand. Trumpism (which is nationalist center-right populism) will survive and forever change the GOP for the better but Trump himself is not going to be president once his legal challenges are exhausted or in 2024. Kristi Noem, Ron DeSantis, and Mike Pence are all credible 2024 candidates.

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    1. Won’t matter who runs in 2024. This election has taught us peasants that our vote matters not unless we vote for their chosen candidate. With the Harris presidency, our once great Republic is gone forevermore. I have no hope left in me for this world.

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    2. Naes, your comments are just part of the "narrative" progressive fiction everyone pushes on Trump. After 4 years of daily incessant negative hits, by the MSM, on Trump it had an impact on voters. Your comment about candidates and "...idolatry or cult of personality..." I had to laugh! Out of the Biden campaign playbook. You actual assessed the "..strengths and weaknesses..." of Biden/Trump? Look at all that Trump's accomplished over a short timeframe vs. no accomplishments for Biden over 47 years in public service. My belief Trump got caught in the "pandemic" maelstrom. However, 'rightfully or wrongfully' the "pandemic" which Trump or his "Experts" could never control - despite the so-called experts - most of them can't even agree a solution on how to tackle the pandemic. Yet, toward the end Trump came roaring back to make up for the ground lost because of Covit and the MSM. Just look at the 'Coattails' for Congressional Republicans. An expected "Bluewave" to a "Red Wave" and majority of winners where Republican Women and a huge Minority increase in votes for Republicans. LOL!

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    3. Unknown—

      I agree that there exists hope for us in God. That’s not my lament.

      I have no hope for this world.

      Thank you for clarifying this point.

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    4. hstad--
      Still doesn't explain how he underperformed Romney who has the charisma of wet fish or Warmonger McCain who was going up against one of the most difficult election cycles and popular democrats in recent memory. Down ballot Republicans didn't ride his coattails; he was riding theirs. Same thing happened in 2016. He largely underperformed down-ballot Republicans. But I'm sure pointing this out makes me a commie/progressive/nazi/deafeatist/swamp lover. Whatever.

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    5. pointing this out makes me a commie/progressive/nazi/deafeatist/swamp lover. Whatever.

      You bet! Cults don't abide dissent one bit. If you aren't in perfect lockstep you'll be labled a troll too. The neo-cons here are a lot like liberals both cherish power not freedom.

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    6. Texas is not TRENDING blue, it's galloping there. The rural areas that keep it red are being swamped by the urbanization trend.

      You keep up your fanciful dreams but reality is about to bite hard.

      Delete
  6. "Hispanics" + New Yorkers + Californians + Massive Urbanization = Texas Blue(s) inside twenty years.

    They're moving us big time left. Born and raised here. Been watching this since the early 70s.

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    1. That's funny. Texas went Democrat in 1976 and 1968. Humphrey was a Minnesota progressive. And Carter had a far left wing VP.

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    2. I don't suppose it matters that children's education here in Texas is almost all Marxist, all the time, from Kindergarten to College. Where they're taught that the USA is evil: the country being built on slavery, genocide, and patriarchal oppression of womyn, not to mention suppression of all the other 57 genders.

      No, that's not it- it's those conservatives escaping blue states, that's all it is. Right!

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    3. We also elected Ann Richards. But we fought long and hard to get the message out that Dims are evil. It worked. Now we are being flooded with leftists from all over because word of our success got out.

      We've been hurtling left at a dramatic pace.

      Esky is right.

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  7. Allen West deserves a lot of credit for the dems not making a dent this year. I read an article yesterday that West denied the use of Dominion voting booths in TX and he asked didn't you all do your homework on the machines? Lazy people not doing their jobs. The GOP rep in AZ just stepped down because she didn't go to the scheduled meeting to go through the machines to certify or not certify.

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  8. About those unmarried young women that vote Left: https://www.somebitchtoldme.com/post/maidengate-i-wasn-t-thinking-big-enough

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    Replies
    1. Wow, another whole big case of fraud! They just keep on stacking up.

      No way Creepy Old Joe & The Ho won this election!

      Delete
    2. The scam just gets bigger and bigger.

      Delete
  9. I love the "experts" in government. Pollsters, scientists, everyone is a brilliant expert, just ask them. I especially loved the collective fawning over disgraced CSPAN hack Steve Scully. They said he was "universally regarded by the MSM as one of the most fair and ethical journalists in Washington DC." Britt Hume said of Scully, "I've known Steve Scully a long time, and always believed him to be a straight shooter." Then Scully admitted he sent the cheating tweet to Mooch, lied to the world that his account was "hacked" (hello, Joy Reid, Anderson Cooper?) and was fired by CSPAN. Pretentions turds.

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  10. Anybody know if Trump will still be able to pursue PA votes, with his legal team gone?

    https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/11/13/under-pressure-trump-lawyers-quit-in-pennsylvania/

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    1. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-law-firm-quits-pennsylvania-case-after-project-lincoln-cancel-campaign

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    2. As long as he has Rudy and Sidney and Lin.

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    3. That legal team may be gone, and good riddance to them if they quit because they were pressured by the Left, but that doesn't mean that ALL legal assistance has gone.

      Last I heard, Pres. Trump has some of the best lawyers in the business helping him deal with the massive vote fraud, and I'm not worried.

      Apparently, neither is President Trump!

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    4. I just found out why some of the legal team quit: they were doxxed by the Lincoln Project never-Trumpers.

      When your family is threatened by the Left, it's hard to resist. It's not like the Left has any morals or ethics to restrain them, after all.

      So I forgive them; but I wish that the Lincoln Project would drive itself off a cliff. A very high cliff, with sharp rocks a long way below!

      https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/twitter-removes-lincoln-project-post-that-doxxed-lawyers-representing-trump

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  11. Hi having issues with internet.
    Wife's good btw.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glad to hear that your wife's doing well! Prayers still coming your way, needed or not. :-)

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    2. I think of you and your wife often. My golfing buddy flat lined during a stent repair last week. They paddled him back and he's looking good now. But his story and what you and your wife are facing makes politics look awfully silly and unimportant. 🙏 🙏 🙏

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  12. The reason Texas is turning blue is ABSOLUTELY THE PEOPLE MOVING THERE! The libs/progressives/socialist fleeing Kalifornia due to the policies THEY supported have come to fruition and payment time!! Kolorado has been getting infested with them for 15 years or so and our state has been completely RUINED! Denver is a cesspool, kinda a san franciso little brother. Dont lose the great state of Texas to this cancer, vote red on EVERYTHING. Dont lose your foothold of what made you great in the first place!!

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  13. "Texas Democrats emerged from Tuesday’s elections as losers who failed to restore progressive politics to a Republican state..."
    As I keep saying, the word "progressive" always reminds me of CANCER.

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  14. The Texas Republicans knew what they had to do long ago, unlike their counterparts in California. But I think this explains it all:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrH_cPby2Ug

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