All errors should be reported to DonSurber@gmail.com

Thursday, November 05, 2020

Ditch the Real Clear Politics Average


Real Clear Politics needs to dump its average of polls because the average is based on untrustworthy polls. The average is most popular feature at the site, but staking its reputation on garbage polls is, in hindsight, a quick way to lose credibility.

Let us review.

Real Clear Politics said Biden would win by 7.2 points. (In Maury Povich voice) that was a lie. The margin is 2.4 and well outside the margin of error.

Real Clear Politics said Biden would win Florida by 0.9 points. (In Maury Povich voice) that was a lie. President Trump won by 3.4 -- well outside the margin of error.

Real Clear Politics said Democrats had a commanding 6.8-point lead in generic congressional polls. (In Maury Povich voice) that was a lie. So far, there is no change in the Senate and Republicans have added 6 seats in the House.

The polls are Democrat propaganda garbage throughout. Real Clear Politics listed 17 polls in the Maine Senate race. All gave the Democrat a lead of anywhere from 1 point to 12.

Republican Senator Susan Collins waltzed away with a 7.8-point victory.

Real Clear Politics needs to protect its reputation from being ruined by outsiders. Never outsource your credibility.

No one should trust the ABC/Washington poll after it said Biden would win Wisconsin by 17 points. Frank Luntz called it polling malpractice. By including that bogus poll in its averages, Real Clear Politics vouched for a lie.

A reader said in an email, "Anyone claiming that polling is the big loser in this election cycle labors under the mistaken belief that the corporate media outlets wanted accurate forecasts of the likely outcome of the election.

"Pollsters will pay no penalty for being wrong because the major news outlets did not pay their pollsters to be right. They paid their pollsters to deliver propaganda. And they got exactly what they paid for."

Yep.

I get the appeal of polls. They have numbers, which make them seem like science.

But the polls are all Democrat psy ops now, meant to discourage Republicans from voting and to serve as a cover for stealing the election in ballot counting.

Real Clear Politics should ditch them.

Unless, of course, it is part of the propaganda machine.

44 comments:

  1. People have short memories. We'll hang on every poll in the next election, too.

    We already forgot, multiple times now, the global warming fraudsters getting busted falsifying data.

    Recency bias is a real thing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Some of us will. Some of us learn.

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. Congratulations. Hopefully your back isn't sore from the self-pat.

      (If you had to wait until now to learn it well. . .)


      Most people will fall for it again, just like this time.

      Delete
    4. I never like the averages of polls. Bad polls bad averages, easy to affect average with real lousy polls. Find a good pollster and follow them Trafalgar for instance.

      Delete
  2. 83.4 percent of people are inclined to believe anything with a decimal point is accurate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Like the Climate Change temperatures. How you can come up with 2 decimal numbers when all your readings are integers has been a great puzzle.

      Delete
    2. The real margins of error are about three times larger than the claimed ones. And the error is always in the same direction.

      Political polling: The only job where you can be wrong all the time and still keep your job.

      Don in Oregon

      Delete
    3. Economists...never wrong, they just explain away, and adjust their theory or model (see: Paul Krugman, NY Times a/k/a, a child porn downloader). zb

      Delete
  3. Who remembers?

    "@Barnes_Law
    Just a reminder: just last year, Democrats demanded, and received, a new election for federal office when just a small amount of fraud was found.
    Yup… in NC.. for vote harvesting no less… but of course we can’t have that now because um.. reasons."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's a great point - since it provides legal precedent.

      It's also why I keep asking the question for uncharted waters in the U.S. - in lawyer-speak, what is the remedy? It's going to be difficult for the court system to just say nothing was wrong - but what matters is how the problem is addressed.

      When this sort of thing has happened in other countries, the remedy (as it was in NC) is a do-over - especially when the effect of the fraud cannot be specifically traced and excised (as it also was in NC).

      So is the do-over localized? Some states? The whole thing everywhere? Methinks that we'd be looking at the "whole thing" option since parsing might run afoul of the equal protection clause (which, ironically, is how SCOTUS stopped the re-re-re-recounts in FL in 2000 - the bad guys insisted on only re-re-re-recounting in a few counties, not all of them).

      Do-over in January or March, with no mail-in voting anywhere this time?

      Delete
    2. I heard it from a wise old soul, the other day, the National Election days are known at least a calendar year ahead...1) No more early voting; 2) no more same day register (limit to seven calendar days, Tues. week before the election), 3) all absentee ballots in election office three calendar days prior cutoff, accompanied by signed affidavit, fingerprint box (peel and press kind >>> cannot dig up the dead for fingerprints, but still leaves the nursing home, mentally challenged vulnerable<<< Make voting inconvenient one day a year. I will vote for this Constitutional Amendment. Thirty-seven States (?) and it's done. ZB

      Delete
    3. It should be hard to vote.

      Makes fraud more difficult.

      Delete
    4. XXX - I love it. But only thing I'd change is NO to absentee simply because someone is so old that they can't get to a poll or mentally vulnerable. I don't want mentally vulnerable voting and if someone is so old that they can't get out to vote, why do we want that vote to count?!?! They're not going to be around long enough to live under whom they're voting for. I know it's harsh and I'm will past middle age too!

      Delete
    5. Folks, above I wasn't talking about some would-be-nice-to-have future reforms - if we could ever get there. I was talking about the remedy to this fiasco that the courts should impose ASAP.

      We need to focus on that. If we don't, we'll never get the chance to repair the system - it will be gone.

      Delete
    6. my only objection to no absentee voting is you just disenfranchised every single military member serving outside of their home town.

      Delete
  4. In programming there's a saying, GIGO.

    Garbage In, Garbage Out, meaning you're lost if you don't have good data.

    RCP works on non-existent data.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Democrat interpretation - Gospel In, Gospel Out

      Delete
    2. "Garbage in garbage out" has been used by ethical pollsters, survey takers, and statisticians forever.

      You can get a poll to say anything you want--or bias it unintentionally, which makes it of no value.

      Delete
  5. Don, Real Clear Politics’ reputation is already more burnt than toast, and your wasting your and your reader’s time giving them advice. EVERYONE paying attention knew the polls were Liberal PsyOps. You think the smart people who own and run Real Clear Politics didn’t?

    You didn’t seem like a moron Don, but increasingly since it has become apparent the Democratic Party’s/Deep State’s efforts to steal the election and deep-six any investigation into the massive corruption and crimes of the Obama Administration is working; you have in effect gone into a fetal position with you blinky in your mouth mumbling that everything will be alright if I ignore it!!!

    Stop it Don, and get back on the game.

    Conservatives don’t give two flips about the reputation of Real Clear Politics you took.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those fake polls the only voter suppression that is ever been documented in the last five decades all anti-Republican candidate every four years (see Jimmy Carter's five point lead in the final weekend of 1980 polling before his debacle)...Minority claims every four years with no evidence; apathy is not voter suppression in those communities (Southern voting tests, poll taxes died with LBJ's Civil Rights Act). ZB

      Delete
  6. Don, some advice.

    Rather than wasting yours and your readers time posting advice to the owners of Real Clear Politics; either create a better, more trustworthy, alternative to Real Clear Politics; or just criticize Real Clear Politics.

    Reason why is the owners and the people who run Real Clear Politics knew exactly what they were doing when they were posting their “average” of Liberal PsyOps Polls.

    You make yourself look like an idiot by assuming they did not know what they were doing, two election cycles (actually three, counting 2018) in a row.

    Stop being a tool, Don.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Sue, who’d YOU call to win in 2016?

      Thought so.

      Delete
    2. Sue called Trump to win, just like I did. I made the call the moment he announced. I was wrong in saying 33 states--but I was a lot closer than anyone here.

      Delete
  7. Sounds a lot like the climate change computer models that are funded with government grant money, i.e. politicians. And we know the political leanings of the academics, don't we?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Academics simply respond to incentives. Try getting a research grant for a study that disproves the global warming hoax.

      Delete
  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  9. DeMario @DJDeMario1

    GAME OVER FOR DEMS

    A.G. Barr issued a directive to all U.S. Attorneys to use ARMED Federal agents to enforce court orders and investigate voter fraud at ballot counting centers.

    Armed agents have never been used before.

    ReplyDelete
  10. “Real Clear Politics should ditch them.

    “Unless, of course, it is part of the propaganda machine.”

    And I wouldn’t discount that possibility.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Before the election, remember how hard Pelosi was pushing Trump to accept what the results were? At the time, the rally crowds had me thinking "why not? Trump's got this in the bag". When Pelosi was pushing for that she already knew what the D's were going to do to make sure Trump lost. Good thing Trump DIDN'T agree to that. It was a trap, and he was smart to not walk right into it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He saw it coming. He gave them an out when he was asked if he would accept a loss and he said, "Depends".

      Now it's on display for the world to see.

      Delete
  12. RCP picks which polls will be in their aggregate. In 2016, they would put a couple of outliers to skew the results in Hillary's favor. This time around, they picked a few polls showing Biden with huge leads. Most the pollsters are looking to herd voters and demoralize Trump supporters. The disloyal opposition knew that wasn't going to work so they opted for blatant voter fraud. If Biden gets sworn in all the crimes committed by the disloyal opposition will be swept under the rug. Trump will be prosecuted and made an example of so that no one else will thin k about objecting to the totalitarian rule imposed by the globalist plutocracy and China.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Don likes to quote Sun Tzu on fighting the battle after you've won it.

    Maybe he can elaborate on it in this case. Trump must have an ace up his sleeve and I'm wondering if he was counting on all those smartphones to photo and vid evidence.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He's got micro-stamped ballots or something.

      As the man rhetorically asked, "If you KNEW a bank was gonna get robbed what would you do to catch the bad guys?"

      Delete
    2. Trump is like John Boyd. He's inside the opposition's decision cycle and is working through his faster than they are. I have no doubt he's five steps ahead of where they are and they're reacting to space he's already vacated. It may not be enough to win within a corrupt system but it gives him an advantage.

      Maneuver Warfare.

      Delete
  14. Exceptional piece of substance in the wake of scrutinizing this I'm feeling overwhelming so much that I've increment a sort of information from this page. Continue doing great!! Thankful to YOU!
    OshenWatch Luxe Review

    ReplyDelete
  15. I never understood the value of averaging polls together. It takes good polls and bad polls and mixes them as if they have the same value.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Whatever you have written, I think enough to make any one understand, Good Job Keep It up.
    PetHydro Max Review
    Starscope Monocular 2020
    PrintX Pro Review 2020

    ReplyDelete
  17. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  18. I think enough to make any one understand, Good Job Keep It up.
    Printx Pro Review

    ReplyDelete