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Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Why the polls lie



ABC just alleged Biden is up 17 points in Wisconsin. Well that's nice. Biden supporters can now stay home and not risk covid by voting.

The fact is, no one has taken Wisconsin by 17 points since LBJ in 1964.

The politicos and pundits know the polls are all lies this year. They cite these polls because the polls give them numbers that support their thesis that Americans can be conned into electing Biden president.

That the greased polls failed to elect Hillary 4 years ago does not matter. They are doubling down. They fixed the polls. The imaginary margins are wider this year.

Why do they lie?

Because there are no consequences for lying. Nobody got fired after the 2016 debacle. No one apologized. No one got left off the Real Clear Politics Average because they were wrong. Nope, it is business as usual.

The pollsters said Hillary would win the popular vote by 3.2 points. She won by 2.1 points. The pollsters then say that was within the margin of error.

Wrong.

The margin for error in a poll of 1,000 may be 3 points, but a poll of 10,000 has a margin of error of less than 0.5%. The sum of the people polled in the 10 polls in the final Real Clear Politics Average was 18,677.

They also blew state race after state race. They said Hillary would win by 6 Electoral College Votes. She lost by 74. (After faithless electors voted, the margin was 77.)

The pollsters went all in this year and now have Biden up by 7.1 nationally.

The final Economist/You Gov poll had Hillary winning by 4. Now it has Biden winning by 11. 

The pros know better.

Jim Lee, a pollster with Susquehanna Polling and Research, told the WFMZ the garbage polls are an attempt to suppress the vote. WFMZ asked him if it worked.

Lee said, "When a poll comes out with one candidate, in this case Hillary Clinton, winning by 11 points when the winner of the race is the other candidate, that is not an outlier, that is bad polling and makes our entire industry look bad. I called on the American Associated of Public Opinion Research to crackdown on egregious polling to tighten standards for firms that clearly don't understand the landscape of Pennsylvania and that guys like Chris and I trying to do quality work, Chris' last poll in 2016 was in the margin of error. Ours showed the race a statistical tie. When others had the race at 11 points. Do you think that's voter suppression? I’m sticking up for the industry, we need to crackdown, someone needs to say this is out of control. Just look at those Real Clear averages."

He also said the polls are not varying much this year. He sees a close racer in Pennsylvania than the 5.1-point win for Biden 538 predict or the 3.8-point win for Biden that Real Clear Politics projects.

Lee said, "The polls are not moving. We have the race in Pennsylvania two points in the September poll and other firms showing a margin of error that the race is tied, it’s been tied all along in our estimation."

He goes by more than numbers on a spreadsheet, as anyone should. He sees the problem that pollsters face in getting people to admit they are voting for President Donald John Trump.

He said, "The president is out there with the narrative that we shouldn't do polling. Many people called him everything from a misogynist to a racist to everything in between. There are a lot of voters out there that don't want to admit they are voting for a guy that has been called a racist, that submerged Trump factor is very real. We have been able to capture it and I’m really disappointed others have not. In 2016 in the summer and early fall showed Pennsylvania up for grabs. Other firms are putting out leads for Hillary Clinton in double digits, that was never the case in my opinion and we are seeing it happening now."

Charlie Cook of the overrated Cook Report said something in September that I must agree with: This cake is baked. People have decided whether or not they want this president. That much is true. The question is whether all the people who back President Trump will admit that to pollsters.

Asked to call the race, Lee said, "I can't call it. If the turnout is going to be what I think, Trump wins it."

He prefaced it with I can't call it before calling it.

If a pollster has trouble saying President Trump will win, pity the poor voter being polled.

But Lee is not the only pollster who knows most of these polls are garbage. They all do. They remember 2016. 

The reasons they are willing to lie for Biden is that if Democrats take back the White House, they will punish those who opposed them

If President Trump wins, there will be no retribution.

In his second term, The Donald must stop being Mister Nice Guy. There must be consequences.

39 comments:

  1. I posted this in the earlier thread. I should have waited and posted it here.

    Do NOT believe any pollsters. Ever.

    This is from Sundance at The Conservative Treehouse, written on November 9, 2016.
    “ THE MEDIA DIDN’T GET IT WRONG – The pollsters did not work from the wrong data set; the media pollsters, consultants and professional political class did not work from the wrong assumptions, or use the incorrect baselines….. THEY LIED.

    The professional media polling agents knew exactly what the truth was.

    They lied and manipulated their data in a concerted effort to intentionally falsify reality. There should be no doubt, EVER, in the mind of any political observer as to what took place within the expressed and broadcasted polling which fueled over two years of broadcast news. The media intentionally lied.”
    Go read it all here 👇 it’s short. Enjoy.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/11/09/an-important-post-election-message-about-media-polling/

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    Replies
    1. That was a GREAT piece by SD.

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    2. They lied then and as Don wrote, they are lying now.

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    3. The media has been lying to us about DJT 24/7 for 5 years now. Why oh why would anyone believe these media sponsored polls?

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    4. 10/28/20:ABCCBSNBCNYTimesPravda Poll: "Biden ahead by 899%. Sweeps Electoral College, Trump wins Guam. 159% of all voters polled want Biden to step down in favor of Hillary Clinton."

      There. No more half-*ssed lies. Go all the way, boys!

      Don Reed

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    5. Polling is the Media's tool for public manipulation to steer and coerce the public to think the way they you to think, vote they way they want you to vote, thus when you see a poll, don't even bother reading it, hasn't 1 iota bit of truth.


      MSMedia - Democrats-Leftists:
      The Truth must not be allowed to be heard, read, seen, must be suppressed, silenced, banned by however and whatever means. Why? because the Truth exposes their corruption, sedition, their guilt, consequently lose public support, thus lose elections, hence lose power and control.


      Democrats-Leftists, especially in the Media are indoctrinated ideologues, police state control freaks, neo-fascists propaganda censor nazis, let alone socialist marxist communists.. if they had they way would abolish the US Constitution, 1st Amendment - Freedom of Speech, Freedom of Religion, 2nd Amendment-Right to Bear Arms, abolish our Unalienable Bill of Rights, along with abolish voting, abolish the Electoral College, unilaterally impose their leftist globalist socialist ideology will and agenda on the nation and people, are literally evil in intent and tenet, which is why their control of the media and entertainment culture is a direct threat and danger to our Constitutional Republic.

      The Democrat MSMedia Complex, Social Big Tech Media are defacto American Pravda, aka Enemy of We the People, who wilfully deliberately maliciously killed Freedom of the Press, must be dismantled and destroyed

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  2. Let the pollsters continue to lie. We know they are liars, we are not fooled. If they change tactics we might get caught flat footed.

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    Replies
    1. Biden will be caught with dawk in hand while sniffing.

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  3. There is another, more dastardly reason pollsters lie for Democrats. Insurrection. The Dems want the narrative put there now that Biden is way ahead in order to claim, after he loses, that Trump obviously stole the election by various means and, so, any action to ensure that Biden takes his rightful place is justified, including violence, insurrection, secession, terrorism even. Do NOT be caught flat footed by post election violence.

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  4. Look at your family and friends for the real polls. The American people are going to rise up on Nov 3rd and reelect the greatest president this country has had since our founding fathers.

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  5. Don, methinks that you've just answered your question about why no outreach to try to persuade 2016 Trump voters to switch. Rather than do that (which would require good ideas and cogent arguments - when was the last time they had either, let alone both?), they'd rather "invest" in psy-ops using "polls" (sic) - since getting two of our people to give up and not turn out is the equivalent of getting one to switch.

    (And the above comment about using fake "polls" to incite post-election violence and non-coooperation is another reason indeed.)

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  6. The final Economist/You Gov poll had Hillarty winning by 4. Now it has Biden winning by 11.

    I think we have a new word - Hillarity, when the hype for a given candidate, known by all (and I do mean all) to be a lousy candidate, is so monumental, it is actually risible.

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  7. //She lost by 74. (After faithless electors voted, the margin was 77.)//

    The faithless electors voted for Hillary, so her margin of loss would have narrowed, not increased.

    As long as I'm commenting and not lurking, do you have any opinion on reports that the youth turnout is exceptionally high this year? This sounds like bad news for POTUS - if it's true.

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    Replies
    1. The faithless electors did not vote for Hillary Clinton. Of the faithless electors' votes that were not invalidated, there was a net gain of 3 for Trump.

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    2. Thanks for this clarification. You're right. I just assumed they voted for Hillary because of the public pressure that was placed on the electors. But as I now know, Hillary lost five EC votes and Trump lost two, for a net loss of three Hillary votes.

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  8. I don't defend the pollsters' dishonesty--however, you have to consider who their clients are: the mainstream media. They are lying because they are paid to lie. If they told the truth, the media would not hire them.

    Yes, there are honest polls being done, but those are polls being conducted for candidates and, as a result, we don't hear about them.

    Want to know what those internal campaign polls are saying? Just look at Trump's behavior and that of the Biden campaign. Which one is acting like a sure winner and which one is acting like a nervous loser?

    I don't know what the future holds for media-commissioned polls, but I can't see how they survive after two complete misses in two successive presidential elections.

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    Replies
    1. Excellent!

      About a month ago I was a bit worried about the election.

      Somewhere I read someone point out that I should look at the how Trump/McConnell were comporting themselves, and compare that to the actions and words or Pelosi/Schumer.

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  9. They'll survive until the Democrat and Democrat leaning voters abandon left wing media sources.

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  10. There's nothing to be gained by talking to a pollster.

    There is, however, some risk. I don't recall any other election where there was a real (albeit small) danger that a mob will descend on you, threaten your kids, kill your dog, and set your house on fire if "activists" become aware that you are considering voting for PDJT.

    So why run the risk? The only poll which counts for anything is the one on Nov. 3.

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  11. I don't know for a fact that the new media (with the cooperation of the pollsters, who, after all, make a living by serving the news media) cheated this election year's polls.

    But now, beyond a shadow of a doubt, I know that the news media is cheating their coverage of stories.

    Evidence? The much-unreported story about Hunter's laptop.

    So we know the news media is willing to suppress the truth.

    If they'll do it for Hunter, they'll do it for the polls.

    You can't trust liars.

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  12. My focus is on the "there are no consequences" problem.

    Cruz speaks with the Twitter dork and the Twitter dork lies to Congress.

    No consequences.

    The Brennen et al. crowd seeks a coup. No consequences.

    Could we please have a suit?

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    Replies
    1. Total agreement with you and Big D.

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    2. I also agree. Who is in charge to make a charge? I'm not very clear who is the one to make a charge for lying under oath, but why the HELL is no one doing it. It seems so simple but not a damn thing gets done. Meanwhile, how can so many conservative people get arrested for Bullshit? Talk about frustrating shit!

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    3. If we behaved like they did, there would be consequences.

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  13. The Dow has given up nearly 2,000 points in three days of operation this week. Do the traders believe the polls? Are they pricing in a Biden win? I think so. All easily recovered - they know this too - once Trump tramples Beijing Joe next week.

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    Replies
    1. This will be the easiest $100k I’ve ever made. I’m DEAD serious. Just like the FBI knew about Hunter and Joe Mama’s shenanigans and did nothing, FINRA, the SEC, and the CFTC know WHOSE money is moving the markets and also do nothing. The ChiComms just don’t understand the mind of an American Patriot very well, although they DO understand the minds of greedy pieces of human garbage.

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    2. Y E S !

      I thought this might happen and have some powder dry. The story of a Biden win and/or Covid cases is the fear used to separate weak shareholders from their stock. This is the big boys forcing a selloff (selling begets selling) so they can buy back at lower prices. Earlier in the year when this happened I bought Apple and Tesla.

      LOOOKING GOOODDDD!

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  14. You are right there are no consequences - there should be.

    However, they are pushing it hard this year mainly to create a post-election narrative that the R's won because they cheated. Therefore they will refuse to concede, lawfare past the Dec Electoral College deadline, are now planning to steal enough House seats in the right places so the January House vote will elect one of their own - and it won't be Joe at that point. Nancy?

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  15. I'm not sure they can be totally wrong again, soooooo, the race will magically tighten in last few days so they can be right or close. That way they can have their cake and eat it too. they can try and push public opinion by lying all this time but switch back just in time to be justified in getting more polls paid for next year.

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  16. "The reasons they are willing to lie for Biden is that if Democrats take back the White House, they will punish those who opposed them"
    -
    Same point Rush made today regarding the silence on the Bo Belinsky (Angels pitcher) / Tucker interview.

    He said word was put out by the Biden/Harris people that anyone that covered that story would be "punished" if they win. People would be blackballed and their careers over.

    That would not have worked on Edward R. and the Murrow Boys. It would not have worked on the Cronkite's, Huntley's, Binkley's, Mike Wallace's of yesteryear. But today's lightweights such as the Chuck Todd's and Leslie Stahl's are built up by their producers and PR people, as the Millie Vanillie's were in popular music.

    The integrity of today's media is found on Internet sites such as this one. The American public is slowly disconnecting from legacy media as they have been with cable TV. Next stop is the ridiculous government positions and entities that have lost all credibility. Were the CDC a private company it would have had hundreds of Class Action Lawsuits filed against it 4 months ago.

    Bill Clinton started the "We come to Washington to SERVE THE PEOPLE" mantra. I knew that would flame out in time. No - people come to DC, the Media, and other entertainment venues to GET RICH. Cat's out of the bag.

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  17. There has only been one time in my living memory where the polls got a Presidential race right. The usual error rate has been around 5% in favor of the Democrat. The one they got right was Obama/Romney. And I chalk that up to Romney's liberal leanings, his incompetence at getting out the vote (an untested app with no backup plans, seriously?) and Obama's skill at running a voter fraud network.

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  18. "In his second term, The Donald must stop being Mister Nice Guy. There must be consequences."

    ABSOLUTELY!

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  19. IMHO pollsters collude with democrat politicians to raises artificially high expectations among the democrat base. then when republicans win, democrats can push fake narratives like "stealing the election," "voter suppression," "russian collusion" etc. this keeps their base engaged---and enraged.

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