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Monday, October 19, 2020

Trump is at 278 and climbing



I have said President Donald John Trump will carry 37 states. That does not mean he has 37 states in the bag right now. That does not mean it will not be close. My prediction is for what will happen on November 3rd.

With two weeks left in the campaign, President Trump is holding two or three rallies a day. Dan Bongino said the president is at 278 Electoral College votes.

That is a relief because Democrats cannot regain territory lost this time because their candidate is unable to campaign.

Biden is in the basement until their debate on Thursday. Moderator Kristen Welker is not feeding him the questions. The DNC is feeding her the questions. They think they are leaving nothing to chance. After that, he will hobble through a few Fake Rallies that he is unable to advertise in advance because Trump supporters will show up and shout him down.

Democrats pin their hopes on the debate and tons of TV ads. They cannot get volunteers. They cannot hold rallies. They know there is no enthusiasm for Biden or his invisible running mate.

Meanwhile, Republicans say they have amassed 2 million-plus volunteers who are knocking on doors and working the phones. Their Get Out The Vote operation was better than the DNC's 4 years ago when there actually were people who were enthusiastic about Hillary. They cried pretty darned hard on election night. As a father, I felt sorry for those kids.

Who is left to mourn Joe Biden? Not one.

Not only is President Trump hitting the hustings, but a bunch of people named Trump are and they are drawing crowds that are larger than any rally held by Biden or whats-her-name. You know, that running mate he has who sorta looks like Michelle.

Squint.

But the rallies that really matter are the biker parades, the boat parades, and the truck-and-car rallies that Trump supporters are holding on their own.

If any Biden supporters exist, they must be too afraid to go outdoors for fear of being mistaken for a Trump supporter by the Democrats' Antifa thugs.

Josh Wingrove, White House reporter for Bloomberg, tweeted, "President Trump, from his hotel in Las Vegas, has called into a press call being held by his campaign manager, Bill Stepien.

"'We're going to win,' Trump says on the call. 'I wouldn't have told you that maybe two or three weeks ago.'"

The pros know this.

Rich Lowry interviewed Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group, whose polls got every battleground state right in 2016. His key is using short (no more than 9 questions) robot calls. He also only does state polls of 1,000 people -- twice what others do. He eschews national polls because this is not a national election.

Pennsylvania is the Keystone State, a reference to its importance in the ratification of the Constitution. It is the keystone in this election.

Cahaly said. “Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania. I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.”

But President Trump will be in Erie tomorrow. He is taking nothing for granted. The reason he rallies in territory he won in 2016 is that those 30 states elected him. He does not need more states, although that would be nice. He was in Nevada on Sunday as well as California, but the latter was to raise money.

Cahaly said, “If it all happened right now, my best guess would be an Electoral College victory in the high to 270s, low 280s.”

Which is where Bongino is.

Using the flawed polls, he wrote, "If the polls are off by the same margin of error as they were in 2016, Trump has an easy road to victory in the electoral college.

"The New York Times gave Hillary Clinton a nearly 90% chance of becoming president heading into the last election, but gave estimates this cycle about what we can expect if the polling was just as wrong now as it was back then. If the average poll is 100% accurate, they project Biden winning 353 electoral votes to Trump’s 185. For reference, the Times predicted that Hillary would win 347 electoral votes to Trump’s 191 in 2016 just going off the polls.

"But what if we take the average poll at face value, and then subtract the difference of how much they were off by in 2016? In that case, Trump could be reasonably expected to win 278 electoral votes to Biden’s 260. (And given the Times’ track record with these kind of projections, Trump would probably lead by more)."

That 278 is now President Trump's minimum because Biden is stuck in the basement and he cannot campaign.

43 comments:

  1. I don't get it. (Discounting the Dems committing massive fraud) how can President Trump not win with the mega enthusiasm of his base? No one shows up to see Biden except reporters.

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    1. There are no Biden voters on the Left/Swamp, just anti-Trump voters. I think Biden has a solid base of voters who have Stage 4 TDS, although it is smaller than Trump's base.

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    2. I know many people (primarily women) who HATE Trump. No reasoning or logic dissuades them. They will vote for Biden if it's proven he's a Chinese Communist. They'd vote for a syphilitic camel if it was running aginst Trump.

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    3. I think Biden has a solid base of voters who have Stage 4 TDS

      I think Biden has a solid base of voters who have Stage 4 STDs.

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    4. Pennsylvania has just received the Supreme Court's blessing to commit voter fraud thanks to John "The Rat" Robert's, no bullschiff!

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    5. I've been watching elections pretty closely (real political junkie) since 1952. I've been surprised a couple of times but that when I was young and foolish. Now that I'm old and foolish and have 16 or 17 elections in the old noodle I'm going to predict that Trump is going to pull off a 1972 or 1984 and go over 400 electoral votes.

      It's going to be delicious. I've watched the 2016 videos of Democrats crying their hearts out so many times that I'm getting bored. The next batch should hold me for a while.

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  2. More people identify as R than D and that is something brand spanking new and just wow ...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1318229633767141376

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    1. After the 2022 mid terms, normal people will not admit publicly to ever having supported the Democrats.

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  3. Meanwhile, it appears early vote counts are not going the D way ...

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/oomf-democrats-panic-early-numbers-china-joe-whimper-fizzle/

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    1. In our rural county went to early vote in person today to avoid crowds that we expect on Nov 3. Silly us. Had to wait in line about 30 minutes on a Monday at 2 pm! I guarantee everyone there was voting for Trump and down ballot for Republicans. Overheard some talk to confirm this fact. Early voting ends on October 30 here. And the loony leftists think they can turn Georgia blue. Bah! No one will ever give up our freedoms, religion, or guns. Proud bitter clingers all.

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    2. In our rural county went to early vote in person today to avoid crowds that we expect on Nov 3. Silly us. Had to wait in line about 30 minutes on a Monday at 2 pm! I guarantee everyone there was voting for Trump and down ballot for Republicans. Overheard some talk to confirm this fact. Early voting ends on October 30 here. And the loony leftists think they can turn Georgia blue. Bah! No one will ever give up our freedoms, religion, or guns. Proud bitter clingers all.

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  4. DJT is leaving nothing in the locker room. If he doesn't make it, it won't be because he slacked off.

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  5. Biden is slidin’. And, what will be the impact of drip-drip-drip from Hunter’s hard drive. The “much more to come” promise of Giuliani and Bannon is intriguing.

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    1. The "much more to come" better be true!

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    2. Unlike the damn Krooked Keystone Cops of the FBI with their '1 indictment'. AG Barr sitting on his thumb... - protecting all his good buddies all up & down the DC swamp - like Mueller that let good people rot in prison as opposed to get to the truth. When PDJT wins, time to find some Prosecutors that want to make a career for themselves and load up prisons with Felons from the FBI, DOJ, State Dept, IRS, CIA, NSA, Military, Clintons, Bidens, Burrs, and a whole damn lot of others that are selling out the US people.

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  6. I am assuming a large number of Dems cannot stomach either man, though when called by a pollster, easily answer for Biden. But on election day, will they actually show up to vote? Don't count on it. That 'enthusiasm gap' is real. I am also assuming a ?? number of Dems will vote for Trump, notwithstanding who they've said they will vote for to the pollsters who have called them. Polls for public consumption vs. the candidates' own private polling might tell two entirely different stories.

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  7. Bidet's basement gets him closer to his supporters. Anything six feet deep.....

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  8. "I want to see the cinders dance."

    Basically, PDJT winning will be great... but I want coattails too everywhere down-ballot as well.

    Try to imagine PDJT 2.0, along with an even-larger majority in the Senate, and the House retaken with an ACTUAL Trumpian majority there...

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  9. Ten Percent Joe gets half of Hunter’s 20%. That a total of twenty percent. And Jim unknown gets 10%. If that is Jim Biden, then Joe would presumably get half of his crooked brother’s salary, too. That would make him Twenty-Five Percent Joe.

    And that’s if the Big Guy doesn’t get a cut from the other partners, too.

    If he got half of each partner, that would be 45%, with his own 10% makes 55% total. Now you’re talkin’.

    “Old 55”.

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    1. Gipper, that talk has me going for some "Old No 7". Good Lawd!

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    2. There's a Jim on that list? Is it the brother? Wow.

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  10. Gallup shows registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats for the first time in a very long time.

    Aren't the percentages of voter registration a big deal when pollsters design their polls?

    Assuming the pollsters' good faith -- which I think is sticking one's neck out -- I think their calibrations are off, not the raw results of the polling.

    This is starting to look like a landslide. And not a Biden landslide.

    I'm sure the DNC knows this. Look for them to make a move to knock Biden off the ticket and run Kamala.

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  11. Its become a chant....37 states. If he really really meant it, he'd place a sizable bet on the election at one of many online sites.

    Its not hard to do. But he never will cause he's just a cheerleader not a serious analyst. His job is rah rah rah and blah blah blah.

    Pass the popcorn!

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  12. "They cannot get get volunteers. "

    Get out! :)

    Cheers

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  13. Nothing to get Black voters excited enough to go out and vote for Biden. Nothing to get the under-30 voter out to vote for anyone. Both of these work against Biden in a big, big way.

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    1. And absolutely nothing in the world could get the Bernie Bros to do anything at all!

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    2. John James should get black voters excited enough to go out and vote - Republican.......

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    3. I have seen a bunch of Biden commercials. Most are targeted for the black vote. They must be losing black voters big time.

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    4. 50 cent endorsed Trump. That is losing the black vote big time.

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  14. Don, I am hanging my hat on your 37 state prediction. I am also curious how a victory of this magnitude will affect Senate and House races.

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  15. I'm amazed by the fact that we've got a Dem candidate curling up in his basement for 4 days to avoid responding to clear evidence of his felonies...just revealed. This is like some easy Hollywood movie.

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  16. The polls have been grossly inflated in Biden's favor because the CONSULTANTS know that people donate more to winning candidates.

    The polls were all part of the Swamp's scam to separate wealthy TDS sufferers from their money.

    If you ignore the polls and look at enthusiasm, message, energy, volunteers -- all the non-poll indicators of success... it looks like a red wave election.

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  17. One additional point -- Biden's polls will inevitably slide over the next 2 weeks... not because facts on the ground have changed, but because the pollsters don't want to be wrong by 10 points.

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  18. Democrat pastors in Alabama paying church members to register to vote and getting cash in return for each registration

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  19. The longer Biden stays in, the better. The FBI's sitting on the laptop did Trump a big favor.

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  20. Stephen Breyer is 82 and frail.

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    1. Not frail enough. He’s been the court’s biggest disgrace nominated by a republican

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    2. Dread Chief Justice Roberts a fairly close also-ran ...

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    3. Stephen Breyer was nominated by Bill Clinton in 1994, and is the most moderate of the remaining left-leaning Supreme Court justices.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Breyer

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  21. "Not only is President Trump hitting the hustings, but a bunch of people named Trump are and they are drawing crowds that are larger than any rally held by Biden or whats-her-name. You know, that running mate he has who sorta looks like Michelle.

    "Squint."

    I EXPLODED IN LAUGHTER.

    Squint!

    Don Reed

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  22. I spent last week on Watauga Lake in NE Tennessee. Beautiful. We visited 3 of the 4 marinas because we like to see the million dollar houseboats berthed in them. Hundreds of boats flew Trump flags. Didn't see one for Biden.

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