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Monday, October 26, 2020

Trump 48, Biden 47

4 years ago, Rasmussen's final survey showed Hillary up by 2 nationally. That was how the popular vote went down. Rasmussen's latest poll has President Donald John Trump up by 1 over Biden.

This poll consistently shows a horse race that is too close to call, just as Rasmussen called the 2016 race.

But President Trump is making his move and there is nothing Biden can do to stop him because Biden is physically and mentally incapable of campaigning for more than one day in three.

Before the debate, Rasmussen had Biden up 3.

Four days later, Trump is up by 1.

And remember, he won 30 states down by 2.

The enthusiasm gap is real.

Rasmussen said, "Trump earns 84% support among Republicans. Biden has 77% of the Democrat vote and leads by seven among voters not affiliated with either major party."

The poll show the president's approval at 52%, a peak.

Of course there is no national election. There are elections in 50 states and DC. State polls were a disaster in 2016.

For example, in Wisconsin, the final average of the polls showed Hillary winning by 6.5 points. She did not bother campaigning there. The Donald made a half-dozen visits and won the state.

Now Biden is up by 5.4 points. He has quit campaigning altogether.

The sewage of polls continue to flow. Citizen Free Press reported, "Drudge is pushing this ultra-lib UW Madison poll." It shows Biden up 8 in Pennsylvania, up 9 in Wisconsin, and up 10 in Michigan.

Up, up, and away!

In 2012, Obama carried Pennsylvania by 5, Wisconsin by 7, and Michigan by 9.5 points.

But Biden is going to do better than Obama in every one of them. 

The president meanwhile held 3 rallies in Pennsylvania today, and scheduled rallies in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska for Tuesday. On Wednesday, he'll be in Arizona and Nevada. 

Which brings me back to Rasmussen.

Paul Bedard delved into the poll and found the nugget that is going to be Donald Trump's political legacy.

Bedard wrote, "The poll data showed Trump building an unusual coalition. For example, 27% of black people said they would choose the president if the election were held today. In 2016, he won 8% of the black vote."

1 in 4 Democrat votes are from black people.

Maybe white people are lying about being black. But if Republicans carry a quarter of the black vote, then Democrats are dead. 

One more thing about Rasmussen's polls. Its final poll in 2008 had it Obama 52%, McCain 46%.

Obama won 53% to 46%.

Not convinced of its accuracy? 538 gives it only a C+ grade.


  1. Well, as DJT said in 2016 to the black community, what have you got to lose. Well, a vote for Plugs is a vote for blacks to lose all the economic and criminal justice progress made under DJT.

    1. Well said.
      And thanks to Don for keeping us informed. The mediocre certainly won't.

  2. Attorney Robert Barnes says Republicans are registering more new voters than Democrats are. And this is a far better predictor of election outcomes than frothy polls, which are unreliable snapshots in time.

    Barnes tweeted: “Voter registration statewide data has forecast a different election outcome than polls in dozens of presidential election polls since 2004. How often have the polls been right, and voter registration trends wrong? Never. What do voter registration trends forecast for 2020? Trump.”

    In 2016, Barnes won $500,000 betting on a Trump win despite all the polls projecting a Hillary landslide. And he’s predicting another Trump victory this year.

    1. So how is it that the donks,year after year, win the new registration battle yet have never sealed the deal?
      My guess is that the liberal college professors get the kids to sign up and maybe they pull the lever for communism that first time. Then when they get the reality check four years later, they switch away from the party that screams everything free!! because they realize that someone has to pay for the free stuff.

    2. Yeah, and often that reality check is seeing all of the auto-deductions on their paycheck!

  3. He has quit campaigning altogether.

    Doesn't this seem like a big deal? He had the excuse of the debate last week, but how to justify it now?

    Doesn't that crush any incentive to vote D, except for the most diehard Trump hater?

    1. Logic would say yes, but we are talking about democrat voters here.

    2. Come on, man, I have half a mind to.....where an I???

      Joe from Scranton

    3. As has been said, very few are voting for Biden, they're voting against Trump.

    4. To cease campaigning is also to avoid answering awkward questions about, oh you know ... things and stuff ... all those 'lies' and 'smears' about the Big Guy and his familia. 'I'll just pull the covers up over my head for a few days and maybe this will all blow over,' dreams Old Joe.

  4. Don thanks for the insight, as always. You are a constant reference for about 8 of us veterans round coffee most days!

  5. Don what are your thoughts on the democrats going all in on fraudulent voting and focusing on stealing the election? Will they be able to not allow a winner to be declared on election night? We know who were dealing with..

    1. I am sure President Trump and his campaign and legal teams are well aware of the plans by the Democrats to cheat and are monitoring the situation closely without discussing it in public.

    2. I sure hope you are right. We have watched the democrats lie about Russia the Steele dossier constantly for years and not one person got a slap on the wrist. They are ruthless and are one and the same w FBI, NSA, DOJ and all of them. The democrats know how to steal votes and will never be fined or anything if they try to steal this election. They are much better at this than the republicans are at stopping them. They are going all out to steal it. Am saying a few extra prayers....


    4. Joe Valachi told the story of the guy who fixed a horse race...He paid off some trainers to scratch their horses; and paid the other jockeys to pull their horses near the finish, and laid off his bets everywhere to hide the fix and keep his odds high...The horse he bet everything on, broke its leg in the stretch. Lesson: The Dem. fix is never guaranteed, no matter how hard they cheat. ZB

  6. I say the fix is in. Change my mind. Please.

  7. Great VP choice by Sloe Joe as well.

    Horizontal Harris had to drop out before the first primary because she was such a horrible candidate.

    She had carried her no-mentum into the presidential race.

  8. Got 2 skillets of Jiffy-pop ready to go after dinner!!!!
    Can't wait to ring in Amy Coney Barrett on Hillary Bday!!!!
    This is going to be GREAT!!!
    Then looking forward to next Tuesday - gonna vote 2nd time for President Donald John Trump!!!! (first time was in 2016 after watching Nigel Farage win the Brexit vote!)......
    For such a sucky year - 2020 does have some Great things going on! To know Trump might even get another 1-2 SCOTUS judges will just be a blessing on our children....

  9. Joe cannot be paraphrased.

  10. "This Rasmussen poll is an outlier, but ..."

    One wonders if poll takers will follow the Ras lead and start putting out data that is in a more accurate territory?

  11. In 2016 The Michigan State University poll had Clinton up by 20 points in Mi a couple days ahead of the election. She lost! State university polls are worthless due to methodology BIAS!

  12. About 45% of expected votes in WI have already been cast and counted: R's 42%, D's 36%, Independents with the rest. And, of course, D's expected to have to be up big in early voting to have any chance, as R's will win big on election day itself.

  13. When Biden does "campaign" he speaks for 15-20 minutes to an audience of 5-20 people, not counting reporters and his own staff (which outnumber the "crowd" in every case.

    So, what's the point? Even if he convinces 100% of attendees to vote for him, it wouldn't make any difference.

  14. It's a damned shame Trump must spend any time at all in AZ. The state used to be like UT, WV, ID, WY, AL, etc. Solid as a rock for the GOP; not even up for discussion.