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Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Reading the polls



Gallup reported that 28% of Americans call themselves Republican, while 27% call themselves Democrats. The mass registration effort by Republicans in Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and elsewhere reflect this because it shows the nation is trending Republican.

How the nation is trending matters more than actual registrations. In 2000, when Bush 43 flipped West Virginia, Democrats not only had twice as many registered voters in the state, they had the majority of registrations.

Democrats vote Republican and then register Republican. I went a few decades like that.

In the jargon of politicos, Gallup has the nation at R+1.

Last week, the Hill reported, "Biden leads Trump by 7 points nationwide."

Its poll was D+5. That would shade it 6 points in favor of Democrats. 7 minus 6 is a 1 point lead for Biden.

Hmm.

That also was a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. In 2016, only 56% of registered voters voted.

Likewise the New York Times poll showed Biden up by 9 among likely voters. It was D+6. meaning his actual lead is 2 points.

President Hillary won by 2 points, didn't she.

And Biden's lead is melting. The IBD/TIPP poll had him dropping 3.7 points in a week's time, while President Trump rose by 3.9 points. Biden's lead is now 2.8 points in that poll.

Stephen Green at PJ Media had a terrific column, "Chins Up, Buckaroos: Donald Trump Is Going to Win."

He noted that at this point in 2012, the nation was D+4. At this point in 2016, it was D+6.

Now it is R+1.

Despite the pandemic and the roller coaster we call the economy in 2020.

Green noted, "When Biden can be bothered to campaign, he’s just not that into it."

That means once President Trump wins a state, Biden cannot hit the hustings and rally his troops. He has none.

Biden is the Led Candidate Walking.

Hillary showed more enthusiasm. I said this before but will anyone cry on Election Night when Biden loses? There are no Biden supporters. Not even in his family. With the exception of his wife, who in his family is hitting the campaign trail for him?

I get that Hunter has to lay low because of the law, but you know if daddy had not spent the last 30 years keeping John Law from arresting his son, maybe Hunter could show his face in public.

Meanwhile, The Donald's 4 adult children are out and about and campaigning for the old man. I think that makes a difference.

My point is that Republicans outnumber Democrats everywhere but in the public opinion polls. We can talk all day about shy voters and sly voters (the ones who lie) but the truth is the pollsters are polling the wrong people. They made no adjustment from 2016 other than to say that their mistakes all fell within the margin of error.

They now are doing the same thing over again and are expecting better results.

35 comments:

  1. I had a hard time following your math above, but my gut tells me this is going to be decisive for DJT and the Republicans.

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    1. I live in Yorktown NY one the NYC northern suburban towns and I'm shocked at how many Trump flags and yard signs are around.

      Long Island is will be red this year and the city is empty.
      If this is happening in NY I think Trump is winning the only question is will it be enough to overcome the democrat cheating?

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    2. A lot of (likely Democrat) New Yorkers fled the city early this year and moved to eastern PA, where we live. They polluted our neighborhoods and if they change where they vote, they will pollute our local election, as well. Let's hope they vote absentee in NY.

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    3. It'll be interesting to see if the RINOs ever get on board.

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  2. And to build on your point, Big D...what I initially thought was a startling increase in the number of Independents (like 15-18% more) can be easily and quite logically explained. They’re ALL on the Train because they’re pissed off the Limp Toobin R’s are in with the Deep State too. So in actuality Mr. T is up about 20. How this will translate down ballot, I don’t know, but will I shed a tear if Suzy Creamcheese Collins or Thom T-T-Tillis or Cory Choke Gardner loses? Oh hellz no.

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    1. that should be a discussion during the PRIMARY. Meanwhile, you should be pulling for those three because Mitch needs their votes...instead of giving those seats to Chuck You Shumer.

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    2. Coach, you are 100% right. One may not like one's RINO Senator but Mitch needs them all.

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    3. Str8 ticket. If not now, when?

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  3. Perhaps the true blue Demmunist voters are afraid to show up at a Biden event, because they don't want to be exposed to the repercussions of a fraudulent vote count, and become the targets of patriotic rage.
    Or it's an absolute landslide for the Super Patriot; President Donald J. Trump.
    I believe he will win BIGLY !
    MAGA !

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  4. Any one who has slept, er sat thru a statistics class, the Poll are clearly biased to the dems they didn't learn from 2916 and are using 2016 numbers.
    This is going to bite them.
    Of course there is the problem of more and more information coming out about Joe and Sniffy..

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  5. There was a poll recently that used 9% more Democrats than Republicans. They are garbage.

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  6. The pollsters problem is they're afraid of angering the Democrat snowflakes with actual truth. They know they will be blamed for any polls showing Trump ahead and this could cause them damage. (I assume that pollsters get paid somehow that jibes with their popularity/accuracy and their appearance of fairness) This is what happens when the truth is met with anger and fists; people shut up or lie to avoid the confrontation. It's what destroys every tyranny. Eventually the truth catches up and the edifice created on lies collapses. I hope this will soon happen to both the Democrat left and it's mouthpiece the corporate media.

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    1. Most of these are PUSH polls. They are setting the narrative that Biden is ahead to discourage voting or voting for Trump. I think it has the opposite effect. There are shy Republican voters but the Dems don't have that luxury in their calculations.

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  7. Do you think Trump's internal polls show it accurately? I get concerned when I see R Senators and House members turning away from the POTUS. Because of their turning against him it almost seems like we'll either have Trump lose and the legislature win; or the legislature win, and Trump lose.

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    1. Garbage comment. You said the same thing on both sides of the “or.” Fix please.

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    2. (Sorry)..Because of their turning against him it almost seems like we'll either have Trump lose and the legislature win; or the legislature lose, and Trump win.

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  8. Let's elect Hunter president and get it over with.

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    1. The Instalanche brings out some more wingnuts!

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  9. Look, I just visited Gallup. Here's a link to their numbers: https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

    You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a year when Gallup DIDN'T occasionally show more Republicans than Democrats! So, where does this, "That is the first time in 16 years that Republicans outnumber Democrats." bit come from?

    I'll grant you the trend is favorable, over the last 20 years Republicans have gone from the underdog to rough parity. But it's been at rough parity for the better part of a decade.

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  10. Don't worry. Nate Silver of 538.com just informed us that Trump is losing ground among white voters. I suppose that means all the bitter clinging gun toting White Supremacists support Biden now.
    Anyway, respondents have been moving towards calling themselves Independent now for at least the last 30 years. Only hard core Democrats or Republicans are willing to self-identify by party.
    And basically those who identify as Independent but "leaning" to one party or the other are incredibly likely to vote for that party. I'll bet the overall split is more like 47-46 Dem vs GOP and 5% actual Independents. Since GOP voters tend to vote in higher %s than Dems I think Trump is in a pretty good place.

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  11. I love me some Don Surber, but I cannot believe how wrong he is on this. First of he says it is the first time in 16 years that R's outnumber D's. It is not even the first time this year. Go look at the data, there have been several other weeks where R's outnumbered D's. In February, R's were up by +7.

    Second big mistake - he conflates this with registration and says the R's registration drive must be the difference. This survey says nothing about registrations. It only asks a simple question: "In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?" IF you look at the data, it is wildly varying sample to sample, which speaks to it not being very reliable.

    IF you read any articles on actual registrations, R's have gained ground, but are still pretty far behind D's in registrations in most states. But guess what, it has always been that way even when Bush won twice and when Trump won in 2016. It has been a long term trend that R's are gaining ground, but they have not caught D's in actual registrations.

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    1. Thanks. I screwed up in the first paragraph and have now fixed it.

      But the second paragraph explained what you just said, "How the nation is trending matters more than actual registrations. In 2000, when Bush 43 flipped West Virginia, Democrats not only had twice as many registered voters in the state, they had the majority of registrations."

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  12. And Frank Luntz is wetting himself over PDJT calling out the Biden Crime Family.

    He doesn't get it.

    It is all about the corruption in government. It is all about how there are now two sets of rules in this country. PDJT gets it, we get it, Luntz doesn't.

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    1. The Biden Crime Family makes grifting look easy. #DemocratPrivilege

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    2. Email thread came out. Luntz was an email correspondent with crackhead at least once.

      Luntz is wetting himself because his gravy train just hit the end of the line.

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    3. I am SUPER PISSED that I never got invited to any of these LibCommie/Media orgies during the 29 years I lived in GBurg. Guess my wallet wasn’t thick enough.

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  13. The woman at the town hall who told POTUS he had such a nice smile reportedly is an independent leaning toward voting for Biden. I find that hard to believe. It is much more likely that now, having actually met the President (and seeing his smile in person!), she said that simply to keep the media off her back while she early-votes for Trump.
    (I wonder how Biden would have responded to such a personal observation. Somehow, I don't think he would have restrained himself to just a happily surprised smile, like Mr. Trump did.)

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    1. President Trump was humanized with one smile.

      Biden would have tried to sniff her hair.

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  14. What's China Joe's closing argument? I ain't Trump?

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  15. What price will the media pay if they get this election wrong too, like 2016? Nothing. That's what. We can see their abject desperation as they are willing to use FB & Twitter to suppress a story about the Biden family's influence peddling with the China and Ukraine. Why wouldn't they out and out fiddle with the polls to show a Biden win? They will not pay any penalty for doing so.

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  16. Arrayed against the Republican cause in this election, you got the Democrats, the Swamp, the MSM, the pollsters, the FBI, Antifa and the public service.

    And standing in the middle of this battleground, waiting for the American voters to come up, is Trump.

    He’s Bastogne.

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  17. To be fair, Jill Biden doesn't care about Joe either. She's in it to be the next Edith Wilson.

    If she cared about him, she wouldn't have let him run again when he's clearly not up to it physically or mentally.

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  18. Your map: I'm wondering how Oregon and Washington are going to vote this year, after non-stop rioting since May.

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