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Friday, October 30, 2020

Pollsters learned nothing



Derek Thompson of The Atlantic assured readers that this year's polls can be trusted, unlike 2016's. The pollsters have seen the light. They have reformed.

He wrote, "For the past few weeks, I’ve been stockpiling all of the quantitative reasons why the 2020 election is really, truly different from 2016, from new polling methodologies to fewer undecided voters. As always, do not allow any level of optimism (or pessimism) to guide your decision to vote. Just vote."

Well, of course, just vote.

And pray.

He said, "National polls weren’t more off in 2016 than in previous years. The problem happened at the state level. Whereas state polls underestimated Barack Obama’s support by about three points in 2012, they underestimated Trump’s support by more than five points in 2016, the largest error so far this century. The most important reason, according to a postmortem from the American Association for Public Opinion Research, was that state polls undercounted non-college-educated voters, who turned out in droves for Trump."


It was CYA.

Its conclusions were:

"The national polls were generally correct and accurate by historical standards." (Close enough for government work.)

"The state polls had a historically bad year in terms of forecasting the state outcomes." (We just had a bad day.)

"In key states, the polls’ under-estimation of Trump’s support was pivotal."

"Reasons for under-estimating Trump’s support: Late changes in voter choices." (The voters were wrong.)

"Reasons for under-estimating Trump’s support: Pollsters’ failure to weight by education."

"Reasons for under-estimating Trump’s support: Little backing for Shy Trump hypothesis."

"Reasons for under-estimating Trump’s support: Nonresponse bias." (Trump supporters didn't answer the phone -- which indeed backs the Shy Trump hypothesis.)

The pollsters' association report was excuses, excuses, excuses. 

And they did not get the national number right. Hillary had nearly 3 million more votes, but she carried California by 4 million votes. 

The reason the California margin was so high was the Senate race was between two Democrats, which meant many Republicans had no motivation to vote.

In 2016, the pollsters said there were more undecided voters than are usual. Now the pollsters say there are fewer.

Thompson wrote, "The relative lack of undecided voters suggests another positive difference for Biden. In 2016, voters disliked both candidates, which is why so many were persuadable in late October. In 2020, voters dislike Trump, and actually like Biden — certainly more than the last Democratic nominee. Biden’s national polling has consistently been about four to six points higher than Clinton’s. His net favorability rating is 17 percentage points higher than Clinton’s was on Election Day. In short, many of 2016's undecideds have decided in 2020 to vote for Biden."

Have they?

Early voting shows Republicans are waiting in line to vote. The pollsters say a far higher percentage of Republicans support President Trump than in 2016. If this is true then how can he be behind by 17 points in Wisconsin as ABC claimed its poll said?

Republican registrations are up.

People didn't register in 2020 to vote against President Trump.

Thomson was right when he wrote, "In 2020, we have the most stable race in decades."

Everyone decided months ago whether they will vote for President Trump. This election is a referendum on him, plain and simple.

The election is about enthusiasm. The election is about getting your people to vote. President Trump has held huge rallies night after night for weeks.

Biden draws flies to his rare rallies. But they are socially distanced flies. His rallies are short made-for-TV events designed to let TV outlets pretend to be fair. They show the best of his short presentation, then show the worst moment in an hourlong speech by President Trump.

The Republican Party has an army of 2 million volunteers to get out the vote.

Democrats have a phone bank.

The pollsters should have adjusted to the new reality.

Whether a person wants President Trump or Biden is nice to know.

But what counts are the actual votes. A 10-point gap in enthusiasm trumps a 7-point lead in the polls. When the enthusiasm gap became obvious this summer, pollsters should have adjusted. They didn't.

And really they learned nothing from 2016. They view it as an anomaly, and cling to the false notion that they got the national vote right.

Vote and pray.

42 comments:

  1. And they did not get the national number right. Hillary had nearly 3 million more votes, but she carried California by 4 million votes.

    As I tell the trolls, fraudulent votes don't count.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh, but they do, because the final score is all that matters--and our side refuses to play by the same rules as the left. So we are in real jeopardy here.

      Five states will tell the tale. We need two of them.

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    2. We’ll get all five, bro. Chillax.

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    3. Saying that she won the popular vote is as silly as saying "but our team got more rebounds".

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    4. Z, you have more faith in the integrity of this process than I do. I'll hope you're right and I'm wrong.

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    5. It will never happen but I would LOVE to see CA comb over its voter roll.
      When an illegal gets an ID card from DMV, it used to be the case (might still be) that by default you got registered to vote.
      If you are registered, they only have your address not your citizenship status.
      If you get called for jury duty and you tell them you can't do it ("not a citizen" the Court does NOT notify the Registrar of Voters. And this year, of course, everyone was mailed a ballot. It's illegal for non-citizens to vote that ballot but ....
      The system has no checks.
      It has no balances.
      Perhaps it is that way on purpose.

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    6. "Quantitative!'

      Well, that settles that.

      Game over.

      HAR.

      Don Reed

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    7. @J, not only do republicans not cheat, they do nothing to stop the opposition from doing it. They still allow democrats to say brown skinned people are not smart enough to get an ID.

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    8. You're wrong about one thing: people are registering to vote AGAINST Trump. Yes, they're not really for Biden, but they are turned off by Trump's personality and can't firm a cogent thought as to policies. So, if you support Trump, VOTE, and bring someone with you.

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  2. The media is acutely aware that there is a segment of the population (that includes the media) who loathe Trump.

    The media seems weirdly unaware, however, that there is a segment of the population that doesn't merely support Trump, but actually loves him. It's not a tiny segment.

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  3. I'm getting a lot of unidentified calls on my phone. I just hit "block number" for each one. I used to do a reverse ID lookup on the computer, but it's no longer worth the effort. I won't answer a poll even to lie to them.

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    1. I just completed a poll that was texted to me. When it asked my opinion on how President Trump has run his campaign I checked enthusiastically agree. When it asked about creepy Joe, I again checked enthusiastically agree.
      I also noted my concern about Joe saying mine was a vote against him and that I decided during the democrat primary.

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    2. I grew up a Cleveland Indians fan.

      Baseball is a game of scoring runs. In the 2016 World Series the Indians scored more runs then the Cubs, but the Cubs were declared champions.

      I wanted to get on 'The View', ESPN, and CNN to point this atrocity out so that the trophy could be placed at Progressive Field where it rightly belonged, but they wouldn't let me on their programs.

      Ever since I've been wondering in the woods drinking wine and cheap liquor all day and night cursing at the moon, while sabotaging the Chicago Cubs at every opportunity. Unfortunately, no one listens to me (some even laugh at me), and it makes me CRAZY! GRrrrrrr......

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    3. Should have been under edutchers' comment.

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    4. My wife and I, if we decide to answer the call, either give completely deceptive answers, or waste so much time being harassed by us that they hang up.

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  4. So a ten point gap with enthusiasm equates to five points, roughly speaking, in the vote. Is that enough to overcome the big steal?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The only enthusiasm gap that matters is those in the battleground states. It's frankly irrelevant whether Rs are jazzed in Hawaii or California or NY (although that might factor into some Congressional races). I get the feeling that the Rs in the battlegrounds are making blood oaths with each other under the full moon to vote.

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    2. I hope you're right. Otherwise we descend into that thousand years of darkness Reagan warned about.

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    3. Is that enough to overcome the big steal?

      Nope. Trump sealed the deal when he allowed mail in balloting. There is no way any blue state will permit him to barely win like he did in 3 Rust Belt states before. Not a chance.

      Once they pack the court it will be time for the South to secede again.

      Delete
    4. President Trump would clearly know that ballot harvesting is legal in several states including California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Oregon, and Virginia — along with the District of Columbia .... Would he actually tell us that he's got a comprehensive initiative in place to win these states? ... Or, as any successful businessman would, would he just make a plan and implement it?

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  5. hillary won california and new york by slightly over 6 million votes. She won the national popular vote by less than 3 million votes. If you take california and new york out of the national popular vote totals, President Trump won the other 55 states by over 3 million votes.
    I believe President Trump will win the popular vote nationally this year and the new york and california totals for biden will be a lot lower.
    If President Trump take 20% of the black vote and 40% of the brown vote biden will be exiled to his basement until he is locked up. Then they will claim he's unfit to be tried due to advance dementia.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sixty states. Obama said we had sixty.

      Come on man!

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    2. 57. Like the Heinz sauces.

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  6. “And really they learned nothing from 2016. They view it as an anomaly, and cling to the false notion that they got the national vote right.”

    Talleyrand smiled.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You will enjoy "Talleyrand" [a biography of Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand-PĆ©rigord [1754-1838], Duff Cooper [1890-1954]; Jonathan Cape (1932; 1933)

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  7. It’s not that the pollsters learned nothing. It’s just that the HAVE nothing else.

    They’ve never figured out President Trump. They are stuck with attempts to derail him like he’s any other Republican. Which would’ve worked on EVERY other Republican.

    Does anyone here actually believe that any other Republican wouldn’t have caved under this 5 year withering attack? (I’m including the year of his campaign)

    He not only fights, he thrives on it! Donald Trump is the first President in my lifetime that hasn’t aged badly while in office.

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    1. Trump is John Wayne in a business suit. He understands John Boyd's Maneuver Warfare better than any person in politics.

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    2. The aged badly comment is the realist thing I've read in politics for years. Good spot

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    3. J That was a great reference to Col John Boyd who wrote the handbook for fighter pilots. He grew up in Erie PA he swam on the same high school swimming team, lifeguard at the same beach and had the same mentor the chief lifeguard as I did but 25 years later. The chief lifeguard would tell us stories about him in the late 1960's. anyhow that was a great reference thanks for using it.

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    4. Jackie Mason used to joke that Reagan was the only president that didn't age while in office. That's because LBJ, Nixon and Carter couldn't find any solutions. Reagan, on the other hand, didn't even know there was a problem.

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    5. I noted that fact yesterday. You watch for a while and there are flashbacks to 2016 and Trump does not appear to have aged. He and I are the same age and in that same time period I have watched myself begin to disintegrate while Trump and Melania seem to be in a stasis bubble. He must be having a great time

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  8. The lack of personal integrity, personal responsibility, and accountability has disappeared in most areas of American disciplines. The trick most use is to ban together with a group of co-workers or even friendly competitors to change reality after the fact. If everyone's doing it then it must be right. Been going on for decades now (try working in an office).
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    As for polling, it's interesting that the pollster I found most interesting in 2016 - Pat Cadell - disappeared this year. He was the first that verified that the issues candidate Trump was bringing up in 2016 - the border and illegal immigration, terrorism, the economy, crime, etc. - were the issues that mattered most to the electorate. Yet as per usual the politicians didn't want to discuss those things. Candidate Trump was on the right side of them. We see the same thing today as the mainstream media constantly tries to set narratives that the majority of people in this country don't care about.
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    For those that are not familiar - Pat Cadell was the boy wonder pollster that came seemingly out of nowhere in 1976 to work for Jimmy Carter and lead his campaign to victory.

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    Replies
    1. Pat died in December 2019. I miss his honesty and I also miss Herman Cain. Two honest cheerful warriors no longer on the field.

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    2. Patrick Caddell, pollster who helped Carter channel voter disaffection, dies at 68

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    3. Pay Caudell didn’t “disappear;” he passed away in February 2019.

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    4. *Pat*

      I hate auto incorrect šŸ˜”

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    5. Thank you all.

      Throughout the 2016 campaign Mr. Cadell kept bringing up how voters needed to concern themselves with the country they were leaving their children and grandchildren.

      Delete
  9. MNN BREAKING NEWS…Hunter Biden Retroactively Registers as a Russian Agent Under FARA, the Foreign Agents Registration Act.

    The Biden Campaign immediately released this statement:

    “It’s official; the man pictured in photographs of sex and drug abuse was an admitted Russian Agent. The bribery emails were written by a Russian Agent and the computer was dropped off at the repair shop by a confirmed Russian Agent. This should put an end to this matter forever.”

    In other news, all of Official Washington is bracing for the mandatory amphibious SWAT assault on Jack Dorsey’s house for Lying to Congress.

    MANUFACTURED NEWS NETWORK: “Democracy Dies In Harry Reid’s Crawlspace Like All the Others”

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  10. Biden
    May draw flies to his “rallies”, but not as many flies than are drawn to a pile of horse droppings.

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  11. Voters may like Biden, but they love President Trump.

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  12. As Lincoln said of Grant, “I can’t spare this man! He fights!”

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  13. I'm not worried. President Trump is on God's side.

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