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Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Democrats fear they lost Pennsylvania



Lititz, Pennsylvania, a town of 9,458 people, easily tripled its population on Monday when Air Force One landed at its airport for a rally by barn-storming President Donald John Trump.

The experts all say Pennsylvania is lost to The Donald. Nate Silver says Biden will win easily by 5 points.

Overall, N8 Ag gives President Trump a 12% chance of re-election.

But President Trump keeps holding rallies, people keep showing up, and a good time is had by all.

This makes reporters nervous because he is a wild and entertaining man. Jokes are reported as straight news. Victor Fiorillo of Philadelphia attended a Trump rally in January and he was horrified to meet people who support the president. They are outside his ken.

Fiorillo ended his story, "He’ll turn 18 in time to vote in his first election, and he’ll be voting for Trump. I asked him what he hopes to hear from Trump at the rally. He seemed to think about it for a moment, and then he shook his head.

"'Honestly, I just really want to be in the room with the man,' he told me. 'He’s like a rock star … I just hope that I get in.'

"Hours later, he texted me this photo from his well-earned seat:

"'Congrats!' I replied.

"And then I signed off for the night and went to bed, but I didn’t sleep well at all."

Many of his fellow elitists in the media are not sleeping well. They realize that their past 4 years of lies, manipulations, and exaggerations about the 45th president were fruitless.

Shawn McCreesh, an editorial assistant at the New York Times, wrote on Tuesday, "Can We Trust Pennsylvania’s Polls?"

I do not link pay sites.

He visited Bensalem, Pennsylvania, and wrote, "Polls show Mr. Biden leading by five to 13 points, but I grew up around here and am dubious. This place — the land of hoagies and Bradley Cooper and Rocky Balboa worship and Tina Fey’s 'Cousin Karen' accent — has transmogrified into Trumplandia."

I have no idea what the Cousin Karen accent is. But judging by Fey's work on Sarah Palin, I imagine it is less than sophisticated.

There is a Trumplandia, but there is no Bidenistan is there? That seems like a problem to me.

McCreesh wrote, "On Sunday, I went back to visit the neighborhood I grew up in, in Hatboro, where the most febrile of Fox News talking points are in bloom on many of the front lawns. One house, belonging to Richard Gottshall, is in a league of its own. Hand-painted posters sprout like weeds from every corner of his yard. 'We the people are tired of the dirty Demo-rats,' says one. 'Liars idiots troublemakers news media as well the best is yet to come.'

"Mr. Gottshall, a retired carpenter and volunteer firefighter, said that some 20 like-minded people had congregated on his lawn that morning to show support for their candidate. His neighbor was not pleased about the gathering."

Yes, it was one of those cringe-worthy burn-my-bridges columns.

He asked, "Is the Trumpmania here restricted to a fortissimo minority circling the drain, or is it a blinking red warning sign that the polls are, once again, badly discombobulated?

"One thing is for sure: It is a florid expression of how many Americans feel alienated from the system. They were here last time and they will remain here no matter what happens on Tuesday."

He visited Lochel Bakery where they sell cookies in a pastry poll. The score was Trump 18,241, Biden 3,367.

In 2016, the Lochel Bakery cookie poll was more accurate than any pollster other than Trafalgar Group, which also predicted Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania.

Trafalgar has President Trump up by 0.9 points. Real Clear Politics lists it as a tie.

Polls in general fell in disrepute because they failed not only in the presidential race in 2016 but five Senate races in 2016 and 2018. All the errors favored Democrats. If the polls were fair and balanced, there would be a 3% chance of that happening.

Jonathan Jakubowski and Christos A. Makridis wrote in The Hill, "Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning."

Using non-polling data, which is to say real data as polls are junk science, Jakubowski and Makridis determined, "President Trump is going to win the 2020 presidential election — and win big."

The pair wrote, in Pennsylvania, "there were 803,427 more registered Democrats than Republicans as of May, but that gap has narrowed to 700,853 as of October. In fact, Republicans have netted seven times as many registered Republican voters than Democrats since 2016. Similar trends are taking place in North Carolina and Florida."

Now then, people did not register this year as Republican only to turn around and vote for Biden.

Will the polls suddenly drop the charade and tell the truth? I doubt it for two reasons. First, the pollsters really believe they are right. Those who know their data are wrong believe their lies serve the greater purpose by trying to oust President Trump. By any means possible is the amoral rationalization of political evil.

Second, there is no penalty for getting it wrong.

But there is hope. 

On Sunday, Insider did something that had not been done since May 31. It posted a poll that showed President Trump with a lead in Pennsylvania of 2.9 points. You have to go back through 47 polls in Pennsylvania to find the last one Real Clear Politics listed as showing President Trump leading in Pennsylvania.

It is 2016 all over again when poll after poll after poll showed Hillary winning Pennsylvania.

Two weeks earlier, Insider Advantage posted a poll that showed Biden up by 3.2 points.

That's more than a 6-point swing in two weeks. Bad polling? Maybe. 

But Democrats are filled with fear, so much so that N8 Ag sought to calm them down with a column that said Biden is not toast if he loses Pennsylvania.


Hmm.

While plenty of Republicans have won the presidency without Pennsylvania, the last Democrat to do so was Harry Truman, who campaigned relentlessly to keep his job.

Who is more like Truman this time?

Democrats can count. They see that rise in Republican registration in Pennsylvania and it has them questioning their own polls.

Instead of investigations and impeachments, Democrats should have spent the last 4 years concentrating on voter registration and making appeals to Trump supporters.

41 comments:

  1. "Democrats should have spent the last 4 years . . . making appeals to Trump supporters."

    Appealing to voters? That's madness!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looking through the bent-back tulips
      To see how the other half lives
      Looking through a glass onion

      ‘Twould be beneath them, you see...

      Delete
    2. Here's another clue for you all-

      The walrus was Joe!

      Delete
    3. They also should have spent the last four years coming up with a better candidate than Hillary 2.0 if they really wanted to win this election

      Delete
    4. Er, er, ahem!

      I am Joe
      as you are Joe
      as we are Joe together.
      Watch as we lose
      like hooves into glue,
      watch how we lie.
      I am the bagman (hooo)
      Hunter's the bagman (hooo)
      We work for The People!
      (And our riches, too!)

      Delete
    5. @ Cynyr, that was hilarious! Thanks for the levity. :^)

      Delete
    6. The left can’t appeal to Americans because they first have to acknowledge our existence.

      Delete
    7. The Dems are going to cheat in Philly. Whatever votes they need. And then fight in the courts.

      Delete
  2. I still say Joe will not be around for Nov.3rd.His "Lid" tells me he's not up to it. but will screw it up by not making it on the 3rd.they just can't insert "Heels up." that quickly.
    There is no there there, to quote a phrase.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BIDEN DON’T WANT IT
      HE DON’T WANT IT
      NEVER DID WANT IT
      AIN’T GONNA HAVE IT

      Delete
    2. Jill and his brother have made him run to try to keep them all out of jail. It's a huge pardon play. He'll be out of the picture win or lose within a few months max - if he lasts that long.

      Delete
  3. There is a price to be paid for being wrong and that is nobody trusts them anymore. I think a lot of people avoid the pollsters and the ones who don't may be having a little fun not being truthful.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I firmly believe that most effective move we conservatives have made this election cycle is to misdirect the pollsters. Coupled with their willingness to lie it has made them look ridiculous.

      Delete
  4. The polls are nuts. They were wrong last time (2016) and likely are again so I don't believe we should be very concerned about them. I am concerned though about election corruption in Pennsylvania. The courts there have allowed several last minute changes in procedures and rules that makes fraud and ballot manipulation all too easy. I'd say the fix is in in PA.

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  5. I’m a magnanimous kinda guy, so I will coin a new term that LibCommie journals may use - gratis! - to explain away their team’s ass licking next week.

    You’ve got your Shy Trump and Sly Trump folks, and now you’ll have a new group: Waffle Fry Trump voters. People who told the pollsters, truthfully at the time, they were voting for Joe Mama, and then realized RIGHT BEFORE VOTING that they too would get fried by the ChiComms for crimes against the state...like smokin a doob. Honestly, what Trump voter is clamoring to change his/her early vote? NOT ONE. So why is it news that people are clamoring for a do-over?

    50-0.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Bidenistan? Is that the name China is giving to that island they built in Philippine waters?

    ReplyDelete
  7. 803,427 more registered Democrats than Republicans as of May, but that gap has narrowed to 700,853

    How many of the 803,427 registered Democrats will vote for President Trump? Years ago, Ronald Reagan attracted large numbers of "Reagan Democrat" votes. We may have large numbers of Trump Democrats now.

    ReplyDelete
  8. "... fortissimo minority circling the drain" sounds more like the MSM/Bidet/Hairyass campaign than Trumpmania.

    ReplyDelete
  9. "Second, there is no penalty for getting it wrong."

    ????????????
    Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Do NOT believe any pollsters. Ever.

    This is from Sundance at The Conservative Treehouse, written on November 9, 2016.
    “ THE MEDIA DIDN’T GET IT WRONG – The pollsters did not work from the wrong data set; the media pollsters, consultants and professional political class did not work from the wrong assumptions, or use the incorrect baselines….. THEY LIED.

    The professional media polling agents knew exactly what the truth was.

    They lied and manipulated their data in a concerted effort to intentionally falsify reality. There should be no doubt, EVER, in the mind of any political observer as to what took place within the expressed and broadcasted polling which fueled over two years of broadcast news. The media intentionally lied.”
    Go read it all here 👇 it’s short. Enjoy.
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/11/09/an-important-post-election-message-about-media-polling/

    ReplyDelete
  11. Tina Fey? Well, she beat K. Harris in the Democrat primaries. Other than that, who knows?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Trying to discourage Trump voter enthusiasm with Left-biased polls is like trying to put out a forest-fire with gasoline.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is maybe the best metaphor I have heard all election cycle.

      Delete
  13. If democrats actually had worked on policies that were friendly to american and americans, maybe they would appeal to more people, most millenals have not heard what Trump tells them, have not been exposed to how Great america can be.. that in a good economy you can ge a job and pay your bills, and save for the future.. Things that actually matter to most people.. Dems just went after Trump who hasn't done anything illegal..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Democrats had no believable policy proposals. No plans. Just Trump hatred. Biden did not campaign partially because he is a tired old man with evident mental lapses and partially because he had no affirmative agenda. Pipe dreams (pipe nightmares??) like the Green New Deal, Medicare for All and eliminating SSI and having a guarranteed annual income for all are not a plan, not a policy, not affordable, not defensible. Raising taxes by $4T when you are trying to recover from the COVID recession is nuts. So all they had was vilifying Trump with one hoax after another - all of which fell apart when investigated. The fact that Trump has been so totally investigated and they found absolutely NOTHING makes me think he has either lived with the caution of a Saint or had really great lawyers and accountants advising him to keep within the bounds.

      Delete
  14. Liberal writers are so pretentious. Jeesh McCreesh. Using such fancy words to hide his fears - febrile, fortissimo, florid.

    C’mon man.

    Take your fancy words home to your basement and on election night, have your chardonnay and Brie with a side order of tears as PDJT crushes it.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Biden is burnt toast in PA. Hell, he may even be burnt toast in my blue state, CT.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wish they would throw Blumenthal out with the toast.

      Delete
  16. You are a retired newspaperman.
    How is that possible?
    You actually sound pro-America and pro-Trump.
    You must be something else.
    NO.ONE. in the media is not a far left Democrat.

    ReplyDelete
  17. You are a retired newspaperman.
    How is that possible?
    You actually sound pro-America and pro-Trump.
    You must be something else.
    NO.ONE. in the media is not a far left Democrat.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Instead of investigations and impeachments, Democrats should have concentrated on DOING THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL JOBS - securing borders, getting us out of wars, cutting expenditures, cutting taxes, shoring up our military because China and Russia are a menace, creating a low-regulatory environment that encourages businesses, competition, and job growth, removing our dependence on foreign oil, foreign medicine, and foreign workers so Americans can thrive, protecting the lives of the innocent, punishing the guilty, calling for discourse in disagreement instead of destruction - and ALL the other things that go along with "securing the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity".

    In short, all the things that the President has been accomplishing DESPITE all the "resistance", all the investigations and impeachment.

    They COULD have worked together FOR America, instead of dividing America and hoping their division was greater than "the other side".

    ReplyDelete
  19. Democrats should have concentrated on actually doing something positive for their constituents.

    If you can't point to a single thing you've actually done, why would anyone vote for you?

    Biden, 47 years in DC, Trump 4 - which one is running on his record?

    ReplyDelete
  20. If the Democrats want to be successful, they have to start offering people something they actually want, other than disruption, patronizing behavior, bad mouthing, and general an extreme stupidity

    ReplyDelete
  21. None of you have any idea what will happen. It's up to the women and they change their minds every hour.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Binge watching movies in quarantine.
    Most interesting was Remember The Goal.

    https://youtu.be/9k6aTwgecdk

    Almost an explanation of Trump strategy and his Goal for the country.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete