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Saturday, October 17, 2020

Biden's bad vote by mail bet



Readers occasionally question my 37-state prediction, which is fine because this is America where you still have the right to be wrong. But their concerns are real and they sometimes puzzle me. 

Vote by mail was particularly vexxing. Mail ballots are easily discarded. They also seem easy to obtain.

But it turns out vote by mail has hampered Democrats. As the ballots come in in North Carolina and Florida, Democrats are not hitting their marks while Republicans are beating theirs.

Democrats built their campaign around it. They whipped up covid 19 fears to get people to vote by mail. They eschewed door-to-door canvassing to stoke those fears.

Politico reported on August 4, "Donald Trump’s campaign says it knocked on over 1 million doors in the past week alone.

"Joe Biden’s campaign says it knocked on zero.

"The Republican and Democratic parties — from the presidential candidates on down — are taking polar opposite approaches to door-to-door canvassing this fall. The competing bets on the value of face-to-face campaigning during a pandemic has no modern precedent, making it a potential wild card in November, especially in close races.

"Biden and the Democratic National Committee aren’t sending volunteers or staffers to talk with voters at home, and don’t anticipate doing anything more than dropping off literature unless the crisis abates. The campaign and the Democratic National Committee think they can compensate for the lack of in-person canvassing with phone calls, texts, new forms of digital organizing, and virtual meet-ups with voters."

How did that work out?

Two months later, NPR reported, "With just a month remaining in the presidential campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden's team is launching in-person canvassing in key states.

"The effort will start this weekend, the Democratic campaign said, with several hundred volunteers canvassing in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada."

Hundreds?

President Trump had 2 million volunteers working for 2 months.

While the early counts on mail-in and absentee ballots show Democrats ahead, the lead is smaller than Democrats believe they need.

The Joe Is Done site said to match 2016 numbers in North Carolina (which they lost) Democrats need 936,296 mailed-in ballots.

As of Thursday, the projection was 688,944 -- about a quarter-million votes below what is needed.

Republicans are at 297,737 -- or 9,107 above matching 2016.

So while Democrats have twice as many votes as Republicans in North Carolina, Democrats need to have thrice as many.

But wait.

There's more.

Larry Schweikart reported on Florida VBM (vote by mail).

He wrote, "In Florida, for example, just a week ago the Democrats were up 55% to 29% in VBM. Today? 49.4% to 29.9%. While the Republicans seem to only be creeping up, the Democrats are rapidly falling down. Their lead now, as in-person early voting is set to start on Monday, October 19, is 443,328. Their goal is 653,000. The Republicans have their own target: after in-person early voting, they think the Democrats must not lead by more than 359,000.

"The combined mail-in (VBM) vote and in-person early vote number for the Republicans is to be down by only 294,000. However, Freeper SpeedyinTexas thinks the Democrats may still hit their VBM target. I’m skeptical."

Democrats put all their eggs on one basket, and it does not look like they have enough eggs.

Oh well. Biden 2020 is just a dry run for 2024, ain't it?

28 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  2. Oregon is vote-by-mail only. We got our ballots in yesterday's mail, and the word was they'd be mailed Oct.16, so that was exactly correct.
    We will NOT be mailing them back. Ours will be dropped in the county clerks ballot box at the county courthouse on Nov. 3 and NOT before. It's the best we can do under our looney state rules.

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    1. Same here. the drop box is the best way to stop corruption.
      or at least reduce it..

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    2. We asked for absentee ballots because my wife is disabled and I care for her. After we got them in the mail and filled them out, I drove them down to the county offices and deposited them into the ballot box.

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    3. AGREED! I'll walk my ballot past USPS to the auditor's dropbox about a mile away on election day. Did the same in 2016. I think it's good luck ;>)

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  3. It seems the Democrats' core constituencies are not responsible enough to (a) retain the ballots they received, (b) fill them out correctly, or (c) mail them correctly.

    Maybe (d) even bother at all.

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  4. My Wife, Son, and I voted early in Western NC yesterday. It was a smoothly run operation, took 10 minutes. So Great to have my vote count for something after living in SoCal for the last 16 years!!

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    Replies
    1. OF course we all voted for @realdonaldtrump

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    2. Yay! Maybe someday I'll know that feeling!

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    3. Happy for you! My job is in NJ so my vote has counted for nothing for years. My sister-in-law is in Conn. and she has kids who go to William & Mary U. in Virginia so she registered there to make her vote count in a state that's in play.
      JerseyJim

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    4. As a former "JimMtnViewCa", Jim, I sympathize. But having been gone 25 years now, the bitter memories are finally fading.

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  5. The Florida ballot needs two stamps to return via USPS. That may be an insurmountable hurdle for the dims traditional core constituency.

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    1. That is a serious problem - for both parties. I worked for a few years as a Relief Postmaster in a small rural post office in Texas. Young people especially do not know where or how to buy stamps. Many have never seen a post office, much less been to one. And when they do finally come in, they use a debit card to pay for one or two stamps.

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    2. Broward county, the most Democrat leaning county in Florida, includes a postage paid envelope with the ballot package. Not sure about any other county.

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    3. South Carolina sends a postage paid envelope, also. You sign the back and have a witness sign it too. And your spouse counts as a witness.

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  6. No Biden ground game means that voters heard that much less malarky.

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  7. Democrats put all their eggs on one basket

    More like (here it comes ) all of their begs on one ask it.

    (had to)

    Biden 2020 is just a dry run for 2024, ain't it?

    More like 2060.

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  8. Given son sniffy's problems now (with Rudy on his tail like a bluetick hound this is not done yet.
    My guess wither Joe's out before the third, or very very debilitated. He has to be worried..
    ditto Sniffy.

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  9. Maybe (d) even bother at all.

    Biden is certainly serving as a massive discouragement to any normal person who happens to be a Democrat.

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  10. Someone please try to convince those of us who follow this stuff, who in the world actually thinks black americans are going to RUSH out to vote for biden? Hillary couldn't even get close to obama's numbers, and in that yr, liberal democrats were not even trying to dismantle law enforcement across dem states. Without massive black turnout, joe is toast.

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  11. I'm still concerned about the ballot harvesting and collection of mail-in ballet fraud in the swing states. Thankfully some of these states have stopped the practice of counting ballets after election day. I still have concern the criminal element won't somehow "fix" this election. They still have the deep state on their side.

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  12. And way too many Democrat Secretary of State, who are in charge of vote counting.

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  13. The Demo-Communists (U.S.) are a Third World Country. We are SHOCKED, SHOCKED I TELL YOU that they are getting 3rd World Results.

    Not to worry. In 2024, the Biafrans will come over to straighten things out.

    Don Reed

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  14. Being a Met fan, I'm almost always pessimistic. The Dem numbers that you've shown are encouraging but they're still higher than GOPs no matter what 2016 comparisons showed. Still biting my nails over this when Trump SHOULD be way ahead.
    JerseyJim

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  15. Hi Don. Thanks for sharing your hard work with us -- we love it!

    "Biden's bad vote by mail bet" seems to indicate that Republican VBM is unexpectedly up. Previously, we had heard that Republicans were likely to hold their water for election night, given the risk for fraud with VBM. But then I though, "Wait a minute!" This is probably a silly question, but given all the dirty tricks lately, I wonder...

    How can we be sure that no-one has already mailed in a ballot in our names? Worse yet, voting Democrat?

    We want to show up on election night and cast our vote for Donald Trump and for a strong Republican Senate and House. What if, instead, we show up and are told we have already voted and are not allowed to vote "twice" ?

    There would seem to be no remedy to such an event.

    I wonder if there is any way to verify our status or to protect ourselves?

    Just a little food for thought. Thanks again!

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  16. How are ballot counts attributed to President Trump and Biden? Are the ballots associated with voter registration records using signatures? I am very curious.

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