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Saturday, October 10, 2020

An Erie feeling about this election

Real Clear Politics says Biden averages a 7.1% lead in the polls in Pennsylvania. The last poll to show President Donald John Trump ahead in Pennsylvania was in May. So why did Yahoo just post a story, "In campaign's final stretch, Democrats claw their way back in Pennsylvania"? 

If Democrats are that far ahead in Pennsylvania, why is the media saying he is clawing back?

The story said, "last month, Democrats took a step to correct one of their mistakes of 2016 and opened an office in Union City, near the southern border of Erie County. After President Trump won the state by running up numbers in smaller counties and flipping larger ones, Democrats have expanded their attention beyond their urban strongholds in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia."

Kelly Chelton, the office manager of the Biden office, told Yahoo, "We’ve got more Trump supporters than Democrats here, but a lot of people were just really excited to see us here. We have given out literally thousands of signs from this office and we have people coming in here daily."

That is odd.

President Trump took Erie County 57,168 to 54,820, a 2-point win, which was a point better than his statewide 1-point win. 

If Biden were ahead by 7, then he would be ahead by 6 in Erie, which is a bellwether of sorts for the state.

I mean, Obama got 57% of Erie County's vote in 2012, which was 5 points better than his statewide total of 52%.

Perhaps it is possible to be down in Erie but up statewide. But the last time Erie got it wrong was in 1988 when it went for Dukakis and the rest of the state went for Bush. The last time before that was 1944, when it went for Dewey instead of FDR. I will take a county that was right about how its state voted in 95% of the last 20 elections.

Democrats sweating Erie is an indication that gee, maybe, that 7-point lead is as believable as an email from a Nigerian prince.

538 gives Biden less than a 53% chance of winning Pennsylvania. That also says a lot about that 7-point lead.

And there is this story from CNBC on October 11, 2016, "With just 28 days left to the presidential election, this race will soon be decided. Based on the polling patterns in recent presidential campaigns, it may already be over.

"Rocked by the release of taped remarks degrading women and battered by mass defections from his own party, Donald Trump is now suffering a drop in national public opinion polls as Hillary Clinton pulls ahead.

"As of Tuesday, Clinton leads Trump by 6.5 percentage points, based on an average of national polls tracked by Real Clear Politics. That gap may be all but impossible to close by Nov. 8, when voters go to the polls."

A gap all but impossible to close?

Never bet against Donald John Trump.

In the 4 years since the pollsters blew the 2016 election, have they demonstrated any ability to correct their errors? In 2018, they missed Republicans ousting Democrat incumbent senators in Florida, Indiana, and Missouri. 

On July 11, I ignored the polls and predicted President Donald John Trump will carry 37 states because Democrats did not reach out to Trump voters. Democrats foolishly believe that they do not need them.

They still spurn us.

Democrats are hung up on 46%, which was Donald Trump's share of the popular vote last time.

The number that matters is 270. That is the number of votes in the Electoral College needed to win the election. That 46% gave him 304 Electoral College votes in 2016, even after a couple of them defected. He carried 30 states that year. He will carry 37 this year. He won't get a landslide, which will burn them even more because once again they will come so close but win no cigar.

Ace of Ace of Spades wrote, "If there were a lot of Trump defectors, the media would be profiling them and lionizing them and promoting them 24-7. But I haven't seen a single story about Trump 2016-Biden 2020 defectors."

That is a very valid point. It is what the reporters do not report that tells the tale.

The only people reporters parade around are Cindy McCain, Carly Fiorina, and others who did not vote for President Trump in 2016. They bother me about as much as farts in some field in Montana that I will never smell.

Meanwhile, Johnny Rotten has gone from "don't you dare vote for Donald Trump" to "Of course I'm voting for Trump."

Ace also wrote, "Of all the people they know -- including RINOs and squishes and Never Trumpers who voted against Trump in 2016 -- many of the Never Trumpers are now reluctant Trump voters, and many of 2016's reluctant Trump voters are now enthusiastic Trump voters.

"On the other hand, they don't know anyone who has moved from voting for Trump in 2016 to voting for Biden.

"One friend tells me that the suburban well-to-do Wine Moms and Squish Sisters he knows are now fully on the MAGA train.

"Everyone they know who's moved on The Trump Question (and Trump seems to be the only issue in 2020) has moved in favor of Trump."

Follow how the pols act. Biden's campaign eschewed door-to-door campaigning. Suddenly, they are reaching out.

But there are useful polls out there, just not the ones that ask people how they will vote.



Others are reviewing the situation and coming up to the same conclusion. Something's up. Biden cannot have a 7-point lead and panic like a last-minute shopper on Christmas Eve.

Paul Bedard reported, "Add John Zogby to the growing number of Democratic pollsters questioning major media surveys showing a double-digit lead by Joe Biden over President Trump.

"'It’s closer than you think,' according to Zogby, who’s own John Zogby Strategies survey puts Biden’s lead at two points, 49%-47%.

"In his latest podcast with son and pollster Jeremy Zogby, John Zogby said that polls showing a bigger Biden lead are using a bad model, one that includes far too many Democrats.

"His model follows the partisan turnout in 2016 that was about 34% Republicans and about 38% Democrats."

We did it before, we will do it again.

UPDATE: A reader pointed out Erie County gained 15 Democrat voters -- and 1,746 Republican voters. That's 1.5% increase over 2016. The source is Patch.

71 comments:

  1. U.S. dregs of society would never vote for China Joe.

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  2. Have you included the possible effect of the National Popular Vote Compact in your estimates? As I understand it, 15 states plus DC have officially signed the compact. Only one, NM, is showing Red on either map. IF DJT takes the popular vote, and I hope he does, and IF those blue states followed their own legislation to put all their electoral votes to the winner, that would swing 196 additional electoral votes from Biden (blue states voting blue) to Trump. I hope all those California Republicans who didn't vote in 2016 because they knew it made no difference in CA will vote for DJT this year because that could be the difference that gives him a plurality. What do you bet that if DJT did win the popular vote, those states would suddenly say that the compact was not binding?

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    1. That isn't in effect yet. Only until enough states to garner at least 270 Electoral College votes commit will this compact be enacted and then that will trigger legal challenges. So it isn't in effect yet

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    2. There is a constitutional question on the compact and I do not think it is in effect yet.

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    3. The Supremes gave a hint as to what they might rule on if it ever reaches them in the case about faithless electors. In that case they basically said that the electors MUST vote the way that the popular vote went in *that state*.
      You can't tell them to do something that goes against the popular will. So that probably means that the basic idea of the compact is out.

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    4. The I stand the popular vote went to trump by even five votes states like California would renege on the compact.

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    5. It's not in effect yet. I'm no lawyer but I did attend a junket where they tried to convince me and other conservatives about the merits of the compact. I think the compact would be upheld as the constitution gives the state legislatures sole discretion on how to allocate electoral college votes. They could decide to have monkeys throw feces at pictures of the candidates. Perfectly legal. But here's the thing, even if the compact is joined by enough states, I think it will only last until the first time a state's electors go to someone who didn't win that state. The voters in that state would revolt and the state would withdraw from the compact.

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  3. I grew up in NYC and, while I know who Trump was, became much more aware of his abilities when he successfully took over the Central Park Wollman Rink project in 1986. He's always been the consummate brash, egotistical NY businessman. Never watched The Apprentice, though I enjoyed some of the commentary I read. But he was never a conservative and I had real doubts in 2016 (my wife was a fan right from the start; I preferred Ted Cruz). Of course I voted for him (I would have voted for J. Fred Muggs over PIAPS), but believed the polls. That election night was the most joyous I've ever had. Ronaldus Magnus' 1984 romp was wonderful but expected. Having seen him govern more conservatively than even Reagan I would swim thru molten lava to vote for him again.

    Bob in MA

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    1. Cruzer here too- until he BeBecked himself. Trump is who he is and to know how he works gaave me more confidence as he went into the 2016 election. He won my vote in the Debate when Jeb! said basically:"Mommie! are you going to let that nasty Twump say that about you!"What what Trump wanted was for Jeb! to say:"You can't say that about my mom!" Step outside. -Marco hold my coat!"He was shopping for a VP. None made it.

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    2. so what stroke do you favor for molten lava? I'm kinda inclined towards the backstroke because sticking my face in molten lava messes up my beard, but that's just me. The breaststroke is OK, but the butterfly is hard to execute no matter the liquid IMHO

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  4. I said three months ago, no WAY Joe Mama makes it to 11/3.

    I still believe that to be true.

    Why didn’t he just LIE about the court-packing when he was questioned? So easy and so natural for a functioning LibCommie. Reason? The question was not scripted! Just pure Uncle Joe pulling someone more shite out of his Hershey Hole. Disaster.

    The Groper from Dover is one more pick away from getting the hook. This last-minute QB change will be exploited by Team Beijing for everything it’s got, but when the dust settles, only the 30% (hardcore Satanists) of the country will pull the lever for Dopey/Heels Up.

    50-0.

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  5. My brother is quite wealthy and runs in circles which include a lot of Hillary voters. Many of them have moved to Trump because they can't possibly vote for socialism, riots (which they are afraid will come to the suburbs, as Wauwatosa proved already). One particular woman he mentioned absolutely despised Trump but is voting for him anyway because he's the only sane choice.

    Finally, there are 24 more days until the election, more than enough time for China Joe to further damage himself by talking like he did this morning in Vegas. "The voters don't deserve to know if I'm going to pack the court if I'm elected."

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  6. I repeat this ad nauseum:

    Trump is up with Black voters. If he takes his previous 8% to only 12%, Biden is in trouble. Some polls have him up even more.

    Trump is up with Latinos. Maybe as high as 45%. Even 35% would be a problem for Biden. Especially when the gains would be from Latinos outside of California which has a large majority of them.

    Bernie Bros. have to be fuming after they were dissed in the debates. No Green New Deal means no Bernie voters. Joe even nixed the Socialist Manifesto.

    Young voters will stay home. They are disenfranchised by being forced to choose between two bad candidates that they hate. Also, Covid scares on campuses is making it nearly impossible for the Dems to register students there.

    I think Dems are totally off on white educated suburban women. They in particular are forced to keep quiet about their support of Trump by radical Leftists

    Dem ground game of bussing in voters and harvesting and preparing people's absentee ballots will be hampered by Covid fears. People won't be opening doors and climbing on busses.

    As many as three quarters of rejected ballots will be check the box Dems due to their demonstrated inability to following even the simplest required procedures. This is where the battle will be - the racist Republicans made the requirements intentionally hard for minorities.

    I think Trump voters are hiding from pollsters or lying on purpose to mess with the polls.

    There is not a pollster in the world that wants to admit any of these points, but it doesn't make them untrue.

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    1. Exactly. I was in town by ou tCity hall and there was a Trump Rally on the lawn good 75-80 People young old all with flags and Trump signs. Raining, windy but they were undeterred.right across the street was the last gasp of the Farmer's market they had a BLM rally. all three all white. Soy poisoned college students and one old Hippie-whom I went to School with. Folks there is NO depth to the dems enthusiasm.

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    2. I get my Berkeley County WV poll worker training next Saturday. “...the courage to change the things I can...”

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    3. Great. Just what we need: Zregime pole dancing.

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    4. I’ve spoken to some rural, hard working blacks. I think the Candace Owens of the world are making a yuuuuuge difference.

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  7. From Rush: "Leading up to elections, we always hear about these Rock the Vote, get-out-the-vote, all these youth vote programs, which are designed to use in conjunction with MTV or other outfits, designed to turn out the vote from 18-to-24. And we’re told every election that that demographic is going to change the outcome. And you know what happens? Hardly any of them ever show up to vote. They brag about it, they talk about it, but on Election Day, they don’t show up."

    https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2020/10/09/operation-turn-a-democrat/

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  8. Where he's hurting is with senior citizens. He won them by 5% in 2016, but is losing them now. That's why he did that video directed at them the other day. If he loses, that could be the reason.

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    1. Don't trust ANY poll.

      Bob in MA.

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    2. Sorry this senior knows we'll be declared "Useless eaters' and marched into the recycle
      grinder if the Dems win.

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    3. What Douglas DC said. If they can kill full-term babies, Democrats will kill grannie and gramps.

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    4. I’m 74 and I have been asking for the last 3-4 days why have the old Farts been changing their minds. Is it a new fear of Covid? It has never occurred to me not to vote for Trump; so if indeed seniors are truly Changing their votes I haven’t fathomed the reason/s

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    5. The DemCong already demonstrated that they'll put Covid19 wards in amongst fragile senior citizens. The DemCong Granny Killers have perfected their methods.

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    6. Maybe some seniors identify more with Biden.

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    7. We have already seen what the Dems can do to the elderly stick them in death traps let them die to make room for more viable voters. I know first had they killed my Mother.

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    8. Well, I've seen the Trump golf cart parade videos from southern Florida and the senior chubby Democrat harridans screaming and flipping them off. Biden can have them. LOL.

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  9. I have a feeling Washington and Oregon will be purple due to the “peaceful” protesters.

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    1. No kidding DeFazio's ComDem. Eugene, and the
      Governor's race in Washington is up for grabs in polls -meaning the Republican is ahead.
      And i read about those..

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    2. It's time to give Alek more moolah.

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  10. I prefer to follow one of the Proverbs from that Book. "Boast not of tomorrow, for thou knowest not what that day will bring." If the election were conducted honestly, President Trump would sleepwalk to his second term. However, signs point to wholesale cheating by the Democrats, and I don't trust the Justice Department to police it properly.

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    1. I'm in agreement NB. I know how the outcome should be, I'm scared to death how it will be.

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    2. Enter Electoral College...

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    3. You are correct, but the one thing evil discounts is God. God decided in 2016 (although not many understood the magnitude God added) and God will decide it again in 2020 because President Trump fits his plan.

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  11. Then amy barret had better be sitting on the SCOTUS, because if the case does get there, who in their right mind can trust john roberts to follow the constitution with all his dem pals threatening him??

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    1. I don't believe he has been threatened. Remember, he was picked by Bush, a deep state uniparty hack if ever there was one. He is John Paul Stevens redux. Remember him?

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  12. Trump is an elected incumbent running for reelection.
    7 of 9 examples post WW2 won and 2 lost. The 2 losers, Carter and Bush Sr, did not have full support of their party as shown by their poor performance in the New Hampshire primaries.

    7 elected incumbents with the full support of their parties ran for reelection and won. 7 for 7.

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    1. Big picture you are indeed correct. Add to that the black uptick, the brown uptick, the 2A gun grab, (remember how it was Al Gore's "light on 2A" that cost him Tennessee in 2000-his home state) plus the walkaway movement. Plus the rallies and boat parades etc. showing the disparate enthusiasm for TRUMP. The only way Dems can possible win is by cheating, period.

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  13. Nice, massive shout out to Don in an American Thinker post by Deputy Editor Andrea Widburg. Almost the entire post is about Don’s abilities and this post.

    Widburg says “ I highly recommend that you read Surber’s entire post, which you’ll find here, and then bookmark his blog. Trust me, you’ll be glad you did.”

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/looking_beyond_the_polls_there_continue_to_be_signs_that_trump_will_win.html#ixzz6aZ9HI1Ev

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    1. It is the reason I found this blog. Added it to my list...

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    2. I found this blog months ago at whatfinger.com but it's no longer there. No clue why. Maybe Don forgot to pay the rent?

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  14. The dearth of nightly showcasing of ex-Trump supporters by the Stupid Networks reminds me of Sherlock’s “the dog that didn’t bark”. That fact solved the mystery of why they aren’t on TV. Can’t find them!

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  15. Union construction worker in Pittsburgh, my jobsite crew is 7-1 for TRUMP (and I am working on the 1) I asked 1 guy to reach out to any friends he could flip and He replied " Dude, EVERYONE I have talked to is on the Trump Train!" IT IS ALL ABOUT TURNOUT NOW!!

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  16. It's the economy, stupid. And by stupid, I do mean Joe Biden.

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  17. About OR and WA. Just did 10-day road trip down east side and then up coast of each state. Rural farm, forest, ranch country. Avoided I5 and big cities. Nothing but Trump signs and flags. Many big, home made too. Some quite elaborate, costly to install. In Bend saw Biden car parade...all of 3 cars on beautiful fall day. Portland and Seattle lefties will likely win their states but Trump is very popular outside these broken, deplorable cities.

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    1. I haven't seen any Biden signs in southern Oregon. I've seen Trump bumper stickers.

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  18. Democrats who don't want socialism and legal immigrants who fled socialist and communist countries will make up for any loss from the senior vote.

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  19. Rasmussen Reports
    @Rasmussen_Poll
    "Since primaries were born in 1912, no incumbent has ever lost the general election after receiving 75% or more of the votes from their party in the primaries. Trump received 94% of all cast in the 2020 Republican primaries."

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  20. https://www.mymoviesplus.com/the-plot-against-the-president/videos/patp-trailer-down-res

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    1. ^The Plot Against the President" trailer. You see a cameo of DOlbermann.

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    2. Better link:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqTu_Btkr08

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  21. Re: the Black community vote--- Those Blacks who identify as religious do so overwhelmingly as Protestants. Indeed, it's no accident that Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr., was named after the most famous of all Protestants: Martin Luther. As Biden himself reminded everyone in his debate with Trump, he (Biden) is Irish Catholic. Further, Kamala Harris reminded everyone in her VP debate with Pence that Biden would be the first Catholic President since JFK. Will the Protestant Black vote naturally support a Catholic? I remember the Rev. Jesse Jackson in the 1980's having trouble supporting ambassadorial status to Vatican City because he thought that would violate the separation between Church and State. Will Protestant pastors support a Catholic Biden? Merely asking. Just asking.

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  22. Love to believe Virginia turns red, live in the valley myself, but there are so many gov’t parasites in Northern Virginia.

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  23. I live in northeast Ohio...work in the People's Republic of Oberlin. In Oberlin all I see are Biden signs....EVERYWHERE ELSE is Trump country. Not even close. Ohio is going red in a big way.

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  24. Hi Don,
    Hindu Americans in USA are fastest group of voters shifting their support from democratic to republican candidates because of the ultra leftist and pro-islamic radicals stance taken by Dems. Hindus are going to vote for Trump in 2020 more than in 2016. In PA alone, there are more than 65000 Hindu American voters and Hindu groups are spreading massive campaign on WhatsApp in favor of Trump. Ever since President Trump visited India in February 2020, there has been a massive shift in his favor.

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  25. I think the polls are wrong this year because there is a Bradley Effect. Trump voters are afraid of retaliation on their jobs or elsewhere, so they are not honest with pollsters. Polls also do not take into account enthusiasm. Look at the rally turnouts, the boat parades, the truck parades...

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  26. Didn't Obama once tell voters to teach Republicans a lesson? Well, now it's our turn to teach the radical left Democrats one big lesson.

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    1. Lets hope there are enough sane voters that don't want to live in an uncivil society

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  27. I am going to use my newly developed prediction formula -
    Formula = % increase/decrease in gun sales x electro collage vote = winner

    Gun sales are up this year by +58%.

    +58% x 538 = 312 Trump

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  28. Here's my worst case scenario - essentially if Trump wins FL he only needs to win one of: PA - MI - WI - MN or a combo of NV/NM or NV/NH.

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