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Thursday, October 08, 2020

56% say we are better off than 4 years ago



In 1980, Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter by asking in their presidential debate, "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" 

I suggest President Donald John Trump ask the same question of the American people in the next debate because the answer will be a resounding yes.

I know this because Gallup asked this question of the American people. 56% said yes, only 32% said worse.

That's 12 points better than Reagan did in 1984 -- and he took 49 states. However, Gallup asked the question in July. By November, the economy was in full swing.

In 2012, only 46% said they were better off -- and we foolishly re-elected Obama.

In 2004, only 47% said yes -- and we wisely re-elected President George Walker Bush. He may not have been Rushmore-worthy, but the alternative was a ne'er-do-well gigolo who twice married into money, and later sold us out to Iran as secretary of state.

In 1992, 38% said yes -- and Bill Clinton ousted President George H.W. Bush.

The answer to this question this time is particularly relevant because Biden is Obama's surrogate. The choice is between Obamanism and capitalism.

And an overwhelming majority know they are better off under capitalism.

Gallup is not bothering with political preference polls as it has learned that polling voters no longer works for one reason or other. I suspect people no longer trust pollsters with a private decision like this.

Being wrong on presidential races hurts Gallup's credibility on other polls for business, which are its main source of revenue. 

But Gallup is asking questions that are less intrusive, and tantalizing. Ask who is more presidential, and President Trump is down by 5 points.

Ask who you agree with on the issues that matter most, and President Trump is up by 3.

The better off question, though, is through the roof: 56%.

My 37 state prediction does not mean a landslide. Far from that. But my forecast shows Democrats will be unable to cheat their way back into the White House.

40 comments:

  1. "Democrats will be unable to cheat their way back into the White House."

    From your keyboard to G_D's "To Do" list

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    1. Agreed, as that's what it will take to prevent them cheating their way in. They did it with ballot harvesting in my Congressional district in 2018.

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  2. In 2016, I was despondent over the prospect of having that crooked, cackling gorgon in the White House. The major polls and the MSM all pointed that this was a done deal. Even my wife, a lifelong Dem who will vote for Trump AGAIN, is preparing herself for a Biden victory. I am certain that Trump will prevail and console myself that midnight election night 2020 will have an outcome similar to 2016.
    TRUMP 2020
    JerseyJim

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  3. I wish I was as confident as Mr Surber, Our Benevolent Host. I KNOW that PDJT will prevail, but I have gnawed my fingernails up to the wrist.

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  4. I was a first-time voter for the Ford v Carter presidential election. A college student, I thought I knew everything. My parents never spoke to me about politics or issues although both were staunch Republicans as I learned later that year.

    At a church banquet that fateful fall of 1976, my pastor had a small ramekin of peanuts placed at every place setting. To my everlasting shame, I voted for the peanut farmer. My parents were enraged when they learned of my vote.

    My parents were the first to shame me. But I was confused. They hadn’t given me—an inexperienced, impressionable voter—one whit of guidance. The lesson stuck.

    I did not make this mistake with my children.
    Cautionary tale not to be unheeded this election season.

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    1. Biggest mistake of my life-well second biggest was voting for Carter. The first one was marrying my ex.I was working for a Hanford contractor,and everyone "Hey Jimmah's all right Submariner Nuke engineer.Schmart,(GIECO Caveman) and a good
      Christian (Wrong on all counts after he hit the Oval office.)Then when Ronnaldus Magnus rode in the world changed . We are seeing this with President Donald J. Trump. Don't foregt thet Reagan was supposed to lose. My lefty mom freaked out when I said I was voting for Reagan. Utterly melted down. Like a Hershey bar on a sidewalk in August..

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    2. Great story. My first vote went to Ford, but then I was a zombie Democrat for 28 years. It's nice to be free.

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    3. That was my first vote, too. I could not bring myself to vote for either so I did something far worse -- I wrote in Eliot Richardson whom, I have come to recognize, was not merely a RINO, but was a member of the Bipartisan Permanent Fusion Party. Worse, I did not recognize as the great Bob Bork did, that the AG had an obligation to defend the Constitution by obeying the President's order to fire Archibald Cox.

      I was proud to vote for Ronaldus Magnus both times. It is only this year that I again will feel something akin to pride in the candidate for whom I cast my vote (and it ain't the guy with plugs).

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    4. See the problem isn't teaching your kids politics, it's teaching them how to spot charlatans. Democrats are liars, and the empirical evidence is really easy to find. It's why the left insists their cultists never even speak to the opposition, because it only takes 30 seconds to destroy the progressive globalist world view.

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    5. MKBAR, his plugs must have gotten fouled. He sure ain't hitting on eight. Maybe hitting on eight year olds...

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    6. Pepper, I didn’t “teach” my kids politics. I taught them to think for themselves and rightly discern truth and falsehood from childhood—to think ideas through to their logical conclusions. We exercised our G-d ordained responsibility to raise up our children in the way they should go rather than abandoning them as my parents had abandoned me to government schools and sloppily-thinking pastors.

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    7. I apologize if it was on this site that I read the pithy observation I will now share, (meaning you may have already heard it) but we as parents should endeavor to not raise children.
      We should endeavor to raise adults.

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    8. My first memory as a little kid was Carter losing in '80, and the Dems crying out that the TV networks called the race so early, that West Coast voters quit going to the still open polls...The Big three (ABC/NBC/CBS) always seemed to dislike Carter, as he defeated their Kennedy icon back in the Spring. ZB

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  5. The Dems are really pushing early voting and I see a lot of my Dem FB friends have already voted. I have a bad feeling that they are loading up early votes and something will happen on election day that will limit voting in person.

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    1. Couple of comments. First, the reporting I have seen has suggested that Ds are not getting that big bounce from early voting. Second, there is no way in person voting can be limited consistent with the US Constitution. If anything, the hours would have to be extended.

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    2. Xi flu uptick, can't risk people congregating at the polls. They will try it. Watch out!

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  6. Well Trump's walked on the Debate- Biden won't meet in person afraid of the virus that mysteriously only affects Trump's inner circle and the Joint Chiefs of Staff , (This is something that needs to be looked into further-IMHO..)Trump rightly says he won't do a virtual debate... Too much chance for cheating by Joe..

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    1. The Trump campaign's statement was excellent.

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    2. Everyone in this house thought Biden would catch covid to avoid the debates, not try to use Trump's covid to avoid them.

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    3. A deal was just struck. Two debates. 22 and 29th

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    4. A deal was just struck. Two debates. 22 and 29th

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  7. I pity the poor fools who live in blue urban areas, after Mr. T wins 50-0. LibCommie Antifa BLM’s grasp on reality is extremely tenuous right now, and a blowout loss will send them over the edge, guaranteed. Violence and Wuhan Fear - has ANYBODY ever won an election running on that? - will keep us celebrating at home instead of a watering hole, but ALL of the joy should begin with a prayer of thanks to God.

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    1. Yeah and Portlantifa is about to elect a Antifa woman as mayor and she'll appoint a BLM activist a Police commissioner.They are going to crater what's left of Portland.The Mayorial candidate is going to bar any cop, deputy,or state police that has been federalized.
      Glad I'm 250 miles away with a defensible mountain pass.
      Nov.4th could be interesting...

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  8. I am better off now than I was on July 31 by 10.3%. That would be an excellent year in The Market and it is only 9 weeks! That's my signal The Market expects a Trump victory.

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    1. I believe The Market will make certain Trump is re-elected. I have no other assurance.

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    2. Which market, the BOT/HFT sham ? I am not aware of any actual markets these days, just the illusions created

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  9. I predict that Trump will win 45 states but lose the popular vote.

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  10. Better off because I refinanced at a low 2.75% in the middle of Covid-19 and cleared all my other debt in part from our CC loans to get the business going and to pay for major truck repairs for our trash pickup company vehicles. I met with my Dem senator about what could be done to refinance our company's debt since we were a new company 2 years ago and he was next to worthless. Without the best economy in decades it would not have been possible to have such a low interest rate.

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    1. So you are openly saying you will roll with DEMs for the money ? HA HA HA You will not be around 2 years from now and BK most likely with your business accumen or alck of ?

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  11. Frankly, the only people against Trump are those that are lazy, non-contributing, non-producing, low information, want something for nothing, don't believe in a higher Power, and who are fat, ugly, bitter, vindictive social misfits. If every single Person answering that description were to be euthanized, there would be ZERO Democrats left!

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    1. That's not fair, Clement. Some of them are SKINNY, ugly, bitter, vindictive social misfits.

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  12. I voted for DJT In 2016. This time I ha no intention of voting for him. He has turned out to be the biggest socialist president in all of history. We've already given the airlines 28 bln, now he wants to give them another 25. That's 53 bln to save 35,000 jobs which is about 1 1/2 million per job.
    And he has the nerve to tell us "America will never be a socialist country."

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    1. Well, if Harris/Biden gets in then you'll see what a real Socialist president will be like.

      I sincerely hope, and pray, that such a disaster doesn't happen; but if it does, then you're going to get a real education, and you'll get it fast, and hard, and there'll be no escaping it.

      You won't like it much, I can assure you!

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  13. Are you saying that career politician Joe Biden is a better choice?

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  14. I vote based in "policy" NOT personality.

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  15. Don, you have your Gallup numbers backwards. Trump is up +3 (not +5) on policy and down -5(not -3) on presidential qualities. That latter measurement didn't seem to hurt him in 2016.

    Also I dont recall Carter asking the better off question in '76. I believe Reagan in '80 was the first to ask it. I remember that keenly, because I personally came up with that question and gave it to one of Reagan's debate prep guys, Rich Dolan.

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    1. Thanks. I shall fix both.

      And thanks for electing the Gipper. Dynamite question.

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  16. "Gallup is not bothering with political preference polls as it has learned that polling voters no longer work... Being wrong on presidential races hurts Gallup's credibility on other polls for business..."

    I'm surprised. Someone --- anyone --- finally learned their lesson.

    Don, good to see you featured at CFP, the cure for the CCP. Between you and the intrepid Salena Zito, there's a place to go for news where common sense prevails.

    Remember when we tended to take that for granted?

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  17. I always remember watching that debate and how boring it seemed to my 21-year-old ears until Reagan asked that question; I sat up and said aloud OMG he's got him! He's got him!! It was like a punch to the solar plexus! My parents looked at me like I'd sprouted devil's horns.

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