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Tuesday, September 08, 2020

Polls say a lot when they say nothing at all



The latest poll on Ohio is the CBS/You Gov poll taken July 21-24. It showed President Donald John Trump was up by 1 point. There have been no polling reports on Ohio reported by Real Clear Politics since then.

Ohio is a battleground state by virtue of its reliability. In 36 of the 40 presidential races since Lincoln's election, the winner of Ohio also won the presidency. That's exactly a 90% accuracy rate that beats all other states. Ohio is on a 14-election winning streak.

In selecting its 8 top battleground states, Politico did not consider Ohio. Instead it chose, "Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."

President Trump took 7 of those states last time and barely lost Minnesota.

538 had predicted in 2016 that he would lose 6 of them.

Missouri also did not make Politico's cut in battleground states. The state was long considered a bellwether state, having nailed 25 of 26 races from 1904 to 2008 and by margins that usually fit the national popular vote average.

Then Obama came along and it messed up. Still, getting 26 of 29 elections right is pretty impressive.

Real Clear Politics has Donald Trump up by 7+ points.

Florida is on the list of close states. As it has gotten 21 of the last 23 presidential elections right, it is second only to Ohio in predicting winners. President Trump is down by 1. That's where he was on Election Day 2016.

I only mention the polls in passing because the polls lost their credibility in 2016 and have failed to get 2018 right.

Actions speak louder than words, and pollsters say a lot when they say nothing at all. They are conceding Ohio and Missouri. That does not mean the election is over, but it shows President Trump is in command.

In 2016, not only did pollsters get only 24 of the 30 states Donald Trump right, they missed two Senate races.

In 2018, they missed three Senate races -- two were outside their self-proclaimed margins of error.

And all the misses were on Republican wins. When you miss six states in the polls, you lose the public's trust especially when all the misses are in the same direction.

The polling bias may be part of some great conspiracy, or it may be because pollsters are lazy and stupid.

4 years ago, Matt Drudge told Steve Bannon and a Trump son on Election Day to calm down. Drudge said, "You guys are a couple of jamokes. Wait until the second exit polls come out, or later."

In its story on battleground states, Politico said, "From July 2016 until Election Day in the three Rust Belt states that Trump unexpectedly picked off — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — 94 public polls were released. Trump led in just three of them."

Those polls were 97% inaccurate about the 3 most important states in that election. Forget it, Jake. It's Jamoke Town.

Now, Miss Alison Krauss.

13 comments:

  1. That's a great song by Allison Kraus.

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    1. AND Union Station, my friend. I consider Alli the torchbearer of modern day bluegrass. This tune’s a little too country for my taste, but stuff like I’ll Fly Away sings to my Great Plains soul. I was meant to live in DubVee.

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    2. LOTS of good modern day bluegrass. Rhonda Vincent & the Rage is freaking HOT. Michael Cleveland & Flamekeeper is another smokin' bluegrass act. Any Chris Thile & Michael Daves collaberation is untouchable. All three do versions of "Muleskinner Blues" that will have you stomping your feet, and each is as individual as a fingerprint.

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  2. The pollsters missed Brexit too.

    The high-pressure tactics of the Left don't change hearts and minds, they just encourage people to lie to pollsters.

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  3. President Hillary gives all the polls showing Biden/Harris leading 5 boxes of Chardonnay.

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  4. Love Allison Kraus, thanks for sharing this one.

    I also enjoy your commentary. :)

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  5. Whenever a poll comes out saying how Biden is ahead of Trump, I look at the massive crowds Trump generates, on land & sea, and then compare them to the handful who come out for Biden.

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  6. The pollsters are building in a 5% democrat bump for large city corruption in their battleground states.

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    1. Yeah, makes me worry that China has printed ballots like the 20,000 + in drivers licenses they found in Chicago a few weeks ago....

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  7. Will 5% be enough to overcome mail-in ballots?

    Seems that all talk of voting is mute if don't include the mail-in fudge factor.

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  8. Keith Whitley did this originally and it's better.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNU7iIdw7Ss

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  9. The Dems’ Marxist buddies’ revolutionary song “The East is Red” must be the stuff of nightmares for the Democrats’ pollsters.

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  10. These bands and singers are very good, Allison is beyond my vocabulary to compliment, but I will take the Earls of Lester.

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