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Monday, July 27, 2020

Trump flipping Nevada and New Mexico

Nevada has gone Republican only twice in the last 7 presidential elections. New Mexico went Republican once in that time, for Bush by 6,000 votes in 2004. But President Donald John Trump's re-election campaign is confident about both states.

Speaking for the campaign, Erin Perrine told the Las Vegas Review-Journal, "In 2016, President Trump lost Nevada by 2.4%. Romney lost by 7.6% and McCain lost Nevada by 12.4%. President Trump closed the margin significantly in Nevada and had the best Republican result since (President George W.) Bush in 2004."

He lost Nevada by 2.4%.

But the pandemic panic hit Las Vegas hard and Democrats enjoy a voter registration edge of 624,673 to 530,000 Republicans, with 367,345 independents.

That's about the same, however, as in 2016 when Democrats enjoyed a 595,816 to 498,550 edge.

Overconfidence may give President Trump an advantage.

The newspaper reported, "A June memo written by Nevada Democrats’ coordinated campaign director Shelby Wiltz noted, 'Among registered voters in Clark County, Republicans are now comparable to a third party.' Wiltz described Nevada Democrats’ position as the strongest the party has seen heading into a general election."

The surprise is New Mexico being in play, after Hillary won by 8 points last time. That followed Obama's 10-point win in 2012, and his 15-point win in 2008.

New Mexico Republican Chairman Steve Pearce told Breitbart News, "100 days out I still say that President Trump is going to win New Mexico and New Mexico is going to carry him over the top. I think it’s going to be very close nationally, but we’ll carry him over the top."

The open Senate seat may boost President Trump in New Mexico.

And Democrat riots help the president in New Mexico.

Pearce said, "New Mexico is also in the news this week because Albuquerque is one of the cities that President Trump is sending federal agents to as part of Operation LeGend. The Democrats in the state, whether it be Democrat Senator Martin Heinrich or Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller, they’ve been out there attacking President Trump and the federal law enforcement officers, calling them ‘storm troopers’ or ‘secret police,’ all sorts of nasty terminology for those who seek to restore law and order to the crime ridden city there. Tell us what’s going on in Albuquerque, with the president sending in federal law enforcement officers to help restore order."

Nixon flipped Nevada and New Mexico in 1968. Each state went Republican in the six presidential elections from 1968 to 1988, inclusive.

Clinton flipped them Democrat.

President Trump is well on his way to flipping them back.

He was the first Republican to be elected without Nevada in 108 years in 2016.


Make Nevada Red Again.


  1. D: I love your term, the "Democrat Riots". Let's get that meme going.

    Every one of those people burning buildings and breaking windows will vote (if they vote) Democrat. Yes, those are the Democrat Riots.

  2. Same point I made to my brother, who lives in Eden Prairie MN (suburb of MPLS): This is a DEMOCRAT Problem. A DEMOCRAT chief of police reporting to a DEMOCRAT mayor with a COMPLETELY DEMOCRAT city council. This is NOT Mr. T’s problem! This is a DEMOCRAT problem!

    Or, as the old saying goes, You break it, you bought it.

  3. The problem here in Nevada are all the California refugees, who think they can make Nevada into an exact replica of California, only with lower taxes. You see the same problem on the East Coast with how the Boston refugees flipped New Hampshire blue.

    1. Electing Democrats is the surest way I know to raise tax rates.

    2. Exactly, TK - they flee here because their voting habits made California uninhabitable, but they figure they can vote the same way here and it'll turn out "better." You note what happened with Boston and New Hampshire - the same thing happened with New York City and Connecticut. And then the perpetrators who ruin the haven to which they fled end up fleeing elsewhere to repeat the pattern.

    3. You can take the democrat out of the hell hole, but you can’t take the hell hole out of the democrat.

    4. It's easy & convenient to blame people fleeing blue states, but you're missing the biggest cause of red states turning blue: schools!

      I'm one of those who left CA, where I was born & bred, and which used to be a Golden State in reality. It had Republican leadership, Ronald Reagan among them, and the state was free & very prosperous.

      It's no longer either free or prosperous, and it doesn't matter in the slightest who a conservative in that state votes for, because the Dems are the ones counting the votes, & they make sure that only Democrats get elected. Everybody knows about the voter fraud there, don't they? Redistricting, illegals voting, vote bundling, etc, etc. The courts are as crooked as the politicians, so no help there!

      But here in Texas I've noticed that there are a LOT of young people demonstrating, trying to start riots, just like in the blue states- and they didn't all come from California! They were born here, but were brainwashed in our school system! Our Texas schools teach the same misguided crap that they teach in California!

      So rather than bitch about the conservatives leaving a place where they weren't welcome, try looking at your very own school systems & the Marxist Teacher's Union that runs them!

    5. Exactly. Who cares who is representative, president, senator? Who did you vote for for school board? County government, city, etc. If PDJT manages to transfer school funding to parents... THAT would be huge

  4. And Democrat riots help the president in (insert blue state).

  5. Not to worry. Trump is flipping Arizona, Wisconsin, Ohio to blue.

  6. Nevadan here.

    The year 2020 has taught us that we don't know what unthinkable thing will happen between now and the election.

    Still, the idea that Trump can win Nevada can only come from people who don't understand just how screwed the GOP as an organization is in Nevada.

    1. Former NV GOP county chairman here. It was just as screwed back in the late 00s.

    2. Thanks. West Virginia had no Republican Party to speak of in 2000 when Bush flipped it.

  7. When I was a political reporter in DC during the 1984 election, I called Nevada 411 to get the number of the Mondale-Ferraro HQ there.

    "We have no listing for that," the operator replied.

    Times change......

  8. New Mexican here.

    Clinton beat Trump in NM by a margin of 48% to 40%. However, Gary Johnson, the former two term Governor got 9%. If he had not run, the margin of victory would have been more narrow.

    I do think Trump has a chance to flip NM red. NM voters tend not to support weak Dem candidates. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama won here easily. Michael Dukakis, John Kerry lost. Al Gore carried NM by only 365 votes in 2000. Biden is unlikely to perform well here but may still win it very narrowly.

  9. You aren't accounting for the Independent American Party, which are probably more reliable Trump voters than are Republicans. There were over 70 thousand of them registered in Nevada as of last month, which puts registrations close to parity for the presidential race.

  10. since at least 1984, excepting only 2012 when 4 million Romney votes “stayed home”, Rat pollsters have discounted Republican (sic) votes by an inveterate 15%.

    In Orwell’s year, Rats’ Schmondale - Ferraro/Zaccaro ticket registered a defeat comparable only to Alf Landon's 1936 loss to FDR. Tax-happy Walter da Squish won only his home State to Landon's two, tallying 13 Electoral Votes to Landon's 8. From that time forth, if not from 1972, pollsters’ adduced 45% "conservative" vote has demonstrably connoted a "silenced majority" 60%.

    As for asserting a marginal Rat popular vs. Electoral College majority in 2016, Pew Foundation studies from 2012 definitively show a minimum 9 million egregiously illegitimate urban-machine ballots (!), constituting a massive one-in-fourteen (7.14%) fraud striking at the very heart of America's consensual Government under Rule of Law.

    Where Treason rules, there Terror reigns. Mao’s gunpoint power answers only to Lenin’s psycho-paranoid “Who – whom?”

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