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Monday, July 06, 2020

538 must want to blow it again



Nate Silver is at it again as he tries to blow his second consecutive presidential election. He does this two ways: he relies on bad polls and he relies on bad national polls.

Right now, N8 Ag gives the Zombie Biden a 10-point lead in national polls over President Donald John Trump.

This is based on 22 recent polls.

16 are polls of registered voters. Such polls are meaningless because about one-third of registered voters won't vote.

Worse, two polls are of all adults. Nearly half of all adults won't vote.

But not only are these not polls of likely voters, they are national polls. As we learned in 2000 and again in 2016, the national vote does not always predict how the Electoral College will vote. That is because we elect presidents by states and the District of Columbia.

We elect by states because this was the only way to get the 13 colonies to agree to the Constitution. This also lured the Republic of Vermont to become the 14th state.

The state polls are tricky because they require a knowledge of the voting patterns of the states to collect the data from likely voters. This makes the polls more expensive. 1,000 calls to get a good sampling of Utah for a state poll is 100 times as expensive as making 10 calls to Utahns for a national poll. (Utah has roughly 1% of the U.S. population.)

So they go with cheap registered voter polls. This weekend, Fox reported, "Democrat Joe Biden is narrowly preferred over President Donald Trump in a new Fox News survey of Georgia registered voters."

Registered voters.

Getting the likely voters right in a state is not easy.

Flashback to 2016, when the Atlanta newspaper reported, "Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in Georgia with less than three weeks until Election Day, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll."

President Trump blew Hillary away on Election Day, 51% to 46% in Jimmy Carter's home state.

N8 Ag also grades the polls.

He gives the Marist Poll an A+.

Flash back again to 2016, when the Wall Street Journal reported on the Marist Poll, and said, "Hillary Clinton Leads by 4 Points in North Carolina; Donald Trump Has 1-Point Edge in Ohio, Poll Finds."

President Trump took North Carolina by 3 points, Ohio by 8.

I have many other examples of the Marist Poll being well off the mark.

Meanwhile, N8 Ag gives the Trafalgar Group a C.

Flashback again to 2016, when Politico reported, "The Trafalgar Group, a Republican consulting firm that conducted surveys using automated phone calls to landline numbers in battleground states. They got Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolina right — an achievement few others can claim."

By few, I think it meant none.

If I know all this, Nate Silver knows it. I am no political savant.

But I am no sucker either. Big money is riding on this election. It bought out Matt Drudge, which means anyone is for sale.

23 comments:

  1. Look at this all the money going into the paid for riots, etc.

    They are losing territory they have held for years and were emboldened by White snowflake people voting for Obama as a form of reparations. That Donald Trump was able to overcome all of that and continuing to have a Powerful following has them pulling out all the stops as Trump winning in 2020 is the Death Knell that they know will be coming. Trump and his Private Security Forces need to be vetted so none of them sell out.

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    1. Remember, Trumps long time Security Chief quit soon after he was elected. I believe he did not want to be blamed if any of Trumps Security Team were turned and something really bad happened.

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    2. That worries me, too. They own the money supply, the press, the universities and top echelons of the military, etc., all boiling over with hate for Trump. He beats the odds every single day. - Gary B

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    3. There's a shadow government working to disrupt everything Trump is doing to make way for socialism
      in America. You better do this today ,.,.,.,,, ,Look at this video ASAP!!!

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    4. Nice try to plant Keyloggers and Ad Scripts onto home computers. To unsuspecting recent internet users. You are What is wrong with everything that is right.

      Delete
  2. You can't blame Nate. He's in it for fame and fortune. It's worked out pretty good for him.

    You speak of biased poll respondents. That problem is minor compared to the real problem - more than 90% of those contacted won't participate.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/

    And nobody knows why cause they ain't talking.

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    Replies
    1. sarcasm? all the conservatives are laying low

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    2. Laying Low? You have no Proof of your allegation. This is also a Psyop .

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  3. The media and pollsters are setting it up for the Dems to claim voter fraud by PDJT. That is why the polls are so skewed and show Biden way ahead. It will be a PDJT win aided by Russia and massive republican voter fraud. Riots to follow.

    If PDJT crushes Biden and it is such a decisive win that even democrat fraud can’t make it close, that may help break the media’s back. Riots will still follow.

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    1. That just means, start buying ammunition now. Remember to aim low after the 1st magazine. If you shoot the first row of rioters, the rest will run away.

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  4. > If PDJT crushes Biden and it is such a decisive win that even democrat fraud can’t make it close, that may help break the media’s back.

    I Kanye West does run as an independent then I think we can guarantee that will pull enough black votes from Biden to ensure a Trump landslide.

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  5. Polls don’t matter but money does. And that’s what has me worried.

    The Bush Lincoln Project Never Trumpers are targeting specific Senate races with six-figure ad buys against the vulnerable Mitch McConnell, Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, and Martha McSally.

    Soros has his wallet opened wide.

    And don’t forget Mike Bloomberg. He’s shown he’s not afraid to flush big bucks with his blank check approach to politics.

    The ideas in Kurt Schlichter’s piece today on Townhall shows it doesn’t have to be this way. It's sad when the game can be won so easily but the leaders other than Trump tasked with winning are such nitwits.

    Trump keeps drawing to an inside straight. But sooner or later luck runs out.

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  6. I don't always comment but when I do I survey Overton Windows


    This is a great post and well done. The post covers a good surface representation of why polls are wrong. And a comment said another piece is that a high percentage of people don't talk to pollsters.

    If the polls were wrong by 2-4 percent these explanations would be correct. But the polls are ALWAYS 5-8 percent off. And further the polls are ALWAYS 5-8 percent off in the Dem direction.

    The mathematics should over a large enough sample size prevent this. Which means it's not the maths fault (nodding to my UK friends). It's a systemic flaw of modern polling.

    "There are Lies, damned lies, and statistics" - Mark Twain (not originally his but popularized by him)

    When a polling company or any researcher at all says 1000+ respondents say X. What he means is that 1000+ people he chose to be in the 1000 sample were tabulated.

    In many research based data I have examined 50% or so of actual form filled out poll participants are trashed before tabulation.

    Why?

    Ah there in lies a tale of the tail. Any pollster does not want a few "extreme kooks" to mess up their data. Now if it were as easy as Q1 - Are you crazy? Q2 - Are you going to Vote? Q3 - Who you voting for?

    Then we would not need N8 Natester would we?

    So there are questions to "filter out" extremes on either end of the political spectrum.

    But how do you know where it's too far left or right? Ah yes the mighty Overton Window. If you have read my previous comments you will know it's Angry's suspicion that the "media perceived Overton Window" is not the actual Overton Window of the American Voter.

    For example - A question to weed out Loony Left - "Do you think that Joseph Stalin was unfairly judged by history for his starvation of 3 million Ukrainians during the Holodomor?"

    A question to weed out crazy righties - "Do you believe that high capacity magazines for AR-15 should remain outlawed?"

    Given recent events a number of middle of the road right of center people could "answer themselves" out of a poll by response.

    Especially if the Activist (er pollster! independent pollster! I say) further thumbs the scale by adding this subtle tweak

    "Do you believe that high capacity magazines of 30 rounds for AR-15 should remain outlawed?"

    gun guys will know that 30 round is standard but most people reviewing the activist pollster would not.

    Which brings me to the REAL reason why the 5-8 error rate exists. The Democrat activists within polling organizations ALL WANT that error rate.

    And media companies continue to buy it and promote it because those numbers are "real to them".

    In times past 1-2 percent moves COULD be done by poll engineering. (Hi President Gore!) But now the variances are too far for these polls to influence anyone except the people who desperately want a Pres Joe.

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    1. In times past I would immediately hang up on any pollster. Now, with caller ID, instead of even answering the call, I hit "block number". I am quite sure I am not alone in doing this.

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  7. A president elected with 3 million less votes than the other candidate, only plays to his shrinking base and sows division? Yeah, he's getting clobbered.

    Your tears will be sweet.

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    Replies
    1. Ho ho, hey hey
      How many Wendy’s didja burn today?

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    2. You are revealing the scourge of the Marxists. We have no Sweat like you are showing.

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    3. Maybe that hood you've been wearing to participate in those riots is tied too tight, Anon-neo. Sowing division is your job and that of your comrades, and you've all been working very hard at it. Go ahead, knock yourselves out--eventually, you will turn on each other.
      Please provide evidence that the President's base is "shrinking."

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    4. Forget it rbbr. The stupid hypocritical dishonest chinese troll never backs any of the diarrhea it dumps here. It at least admits Trump was elected, so that's something; small, be it, but something.

      The funny thing is Don has kept this vile troll out for a long time. But somehow, it occasionally finds it's way in, meaning that it gets denied so many other times. Which shows how desperate this idiot is to visit this site. Too bad Don can't charge the idiot admission.

      FLOlson

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  8. Polling and weather reporting are the two jobs you can keep even when your are often wrong...and maybe tenured professors

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  9. In my state candidates purchase registered voter lists with those who voted 2 or 3 times in national elections and generally concentrate on them during primaries. If you are looking at all states, if they are like mine, you have to buy the voter rolls and with 3500 counties and two major parties, that is 7000 lists at some price just to get started.

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  10. Very well thought out. I would have said that the variances are simply from over sampling Democrats AND under sampling Conservatives. Most major polls do this consistently. Its relatively easy to find, but you do have to take a look at how many Demz were sampled versus independents and Conservatives.

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