All errors should be reported to DonSurber@gmail.com

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

New home sales soar 8 times higher than expected



Move over Fake News. Make way for the Fake Recession. While the National Bureau of Economic Research hastily declared a recession on June 8, signs show the nation had already climbed out of a two-month downturn. Under NBER's own rules, a recession must last more than a few months.

Today's good news is that HUD announced that new house sales were up in May by 16.6% over April. Economists predicted a 2% gain.

Big deal. April sucked.

Ah, but sales in May were 12.7% above May 2019.

CNBC reported, "A telling point in the data: The biggest sales jump came in homes not yet started. That caused the supply of homes for sale that were under construction to drop 15% compared with a year ago."

Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, told the network, "Due to labor and land constraints, homebuilders were already producing too few single-family homes given potential demand. As housing demand has picked up in recent weeks, builders have shifted sales to homes not yet under construction – a 20% year-over-year gain for such sales."

In short, new homes are on back order because builders cannot construct them fast enough.

CNBC also reported, "Homebuilders are ramping up hiring to meet the improved demand, Dietz noted, adding 226,000 workers in May, but they were already struggling to find skilled workers before the pandemic hit. Land and material prices are also rising. Lumber prices, in particular, recently spiked, after falling dramatically at the start of this year."

The Chumbawamba Economy ("I get knocked down, but I get up again, you are never gonna keep me down") caught everyone off-guard.

President Donald John Trump's ability to push the unemployment rate down to a 50-year low of 3.6% -- as well as an infusion of $2.4 trillion in aid into the economy -- avoided another decade-long disaster like the Great Depression.

Electing the author of "The Art of the Comeback" as president was a wise move by 62 million of us.

As for the stock market, it recovered from March 23 lows. NASDAQ set a record high today. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also are rising. The DJIA is up 40+% since Election Day 2016. The stock market is the roller coaster in the amusement park we call the economy.

8 comments:

  1. After being up almost 10% in January and down almost 28% in March, I am now back in positive territory by 1%.
    I expect great things here on out for the rest of the year and the next 4 years!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Noting else matters when it is Noose Hunting Season.
    Seems Bubba Smollett wasn't given credit for bagging one according to the FBI.He was though still searching for the prize by looking to the skies when he viewed a plane flying overhead with the Confederate Flag.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And just like The Black Jesus, when Sundance at Conservative Tree House outed the thing as a fraud and a sham, what did Semi-Black Bubba do? DOUBLED DOWN on it. Goddam, Barack, you really did fundamentally transform the country.

      Delete
  3. an infusion of $2.4 trillion in aid into the economy -- avoided another decade-long disaster like the Great Depression.

    Pure BS. He's doing just what FDR did. Funnel vast sums of money into the private sector and all it will do is prolong the downturn. That is what intervention does when you violate the natural laws of free markets.

    Surber's neo con ideology is on full display now he can't mask it anymore.

    The real reason home sales skyrocketed is because smart people are fleeing their city apartments/condos now that they can work from home. This is going to decimate the tax base of major cities in a few years especially NYC. That's good news.

    So they are moving to the suburbs and buying homes from where they will be working from now on. No more commute time no more sky high rents to pay. And now that the crooked FED has jacked interest rates down, as usual, their house payment will be far less than their rent.

    And the only reason stocks are up are because the counterfeiters at the FED created $3 trillion in fiat money in 2 months. That's called desperation that dwarfs the New Dealers revolution. There is no going back now.

    Surber is SO butt hurt because they called this a recession so fast. Well no wonder! Never before has an economic collapse occurred here. Ever.

    40 million plus out of work in 6 weeks and its no recession? Surber is not to be taken seriously his agenda is clear.

    It doesn't matter who is President anymore both parties are spending into oblivion and the middle class will be decimated by 2030 when their purchasing power disappears. The deficit this year alone will be $5 trillion or more.

    But all political hacks wanna do is talk about this year. They're just like corrupt politicians. Nothing matters but the next election fiscal sanity be damned.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And you learned all this in a Government Public School. I'll bet you also got a Trophy in kindergarten. Good for you.

      Delete
  4. This news is good, but there's a very important question which won't really be answered until June's housing data comes out.

    EXISTING home sales have been falling. May's EXISTING sales were 26.6 percent below May 2019, and down 9.9 percent (seasonally adjusted) from April.

    The increase in NEW home sales, combined with the "telling point" about many of the new purchases being homes not started *could* mean that we are beginning to see an accelerating exodus from the cities and inner-ring suburbs. If so, May's increase could be influenced by COVID (people wishing not to be in densely populated areas), and only a little by the widespread riots and protests (even the peaceful ones were often designed to intimidate).

    In June we'll see whether COVID combined with a desire to be as far away from potential mayhem as possible leads to a further spike in NEW home sales, the vast majority of which occur in the far-out suburbs and exurbs. My semi-educated guess is that it will, for at least the next several months.

    ReplyDelete
  5. How much of the NEW home sales are folks moving out of NYC, Seattle, Portland, CA etc?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Get Packers and Movers Jaipur List of Top Reliable, 100% Affordable, Verified and Secured Service Provider. Get Free ###Packers and Movers Jaipur Price Quotation instantly and Save Cost and Time. Packers and Movers Jaipur ✔ ✔ ✔ Reviews and Compare Charges for household Shifting, Home/Office Relocation, ***Car Transportation, Pet Relocation, Bike SHifting @ Packers And Movers Jaipur

    ReplyDelete