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Monday, June 22, 2020

Economists declare riots slow the spread of covid-19



On June 8, the National Bureau of Economic Research abandoned objectivity to declare a recession before there was evidence of one.

Today, the same bureaucracy declared the BLM protests, riots, and looting actually stop the spread of covid-19.

Researchers strayed from the economy to give medical advice. They released a paper that said, "Event-study analyses provide strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased following protest onset, consistent with the hypothesis that non-protesters’ behavior was substantially affected by urban protests."

The hypothesis holds that scaring people out of their wits by burning police cars and the local Wendy's are good for society because it slows the spread of covid-19.

The economists had a Marge Schott moment in which they asked, but what about all the good things rioting and looting have done?

A ransacked city smoking in the morning sun is a covid-19 free city, eh?

NBER Working Paper No. 27408 said, "Sparked by the killing of George Floyd in police custody, the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests have brought a new wave of attention to the issue of inequality within criminal justice. However, many public health officials have warned that mass protests could lead to a reduction in social distancing behavior, spurring a resurgence of covid-19.

"This study uses newly collected data on protests in 315 of the largest U.S. cities to estimate the impacts of mass protests on social distancing and covid-19 case growth. Event-study analyses provide strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased following protest onset, consistent with the hypothesis that non-protesters’ behavior was substantially affected by urban protests. This effect was not fully explained by the imposition of city curfews. Estimated effects were generally larger for persistent protests and those accompanied by media reports of violence.

"Furthermore, we find no evidence that urban protests reignited covid-19 case growth during the more than two and a half weeks following protest onset. We conclude that predictions of broad negative public health consequences of Black Lives Matter protests were far too narrowly conceived."

To say NBER had no business or expertise in putting together this propaganda is an understatement.

The bureau was hasty in declaring a recession. It violated its own definition of a recession being more than a few bad months. I addressed that last week.

This foray into making medical declarations should be the last straw. President Donald John Trump should fire the entire board and lay off the entire staff because it is obvious the NBER has devolved into a taxpayer-provided haven for partisan hacks and their civil service-protected minions.

Let George Soros pick up the tab for these would-be saboteurs of the duly elected administration.

UPDATE: Well, this is embarrassing. An economist wrote me, "As it happens, NBER is a private, non-profit organization. Their employees are private-sector employees. They are not in the Civil Service and they have no civil service protection. Furthermore, the research they publish is not even done by their employees -- the employees just collect and disseminate research written by outside economists, mostly academics. The employees organize conferences and books and a research paper series."

I apologize for failing to do my own research.

But the paper should not be published. It is speculation, not science. We do not know how many Antifa and other rioters and looters got covid-19 or spread it.

16 comments:

  1. Riots, looting, pillaging, & murdering cops had the effect of keeping most people in hiding.
    .
    Thus, less covid spread.
    .

    ReplyDelete
  2. Oh dear. Clearly an area too complex to get at a decided scientific conclusion. Even if you compared, as a natural experiment, two cities of equal population, with one sustaining riots and one unblemished by riots...you would still have all sorts of differences in culture and structure and viral epidemiology. Yeah. This is simply silly propaganda.

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  3. You presume that Soros hasn't already directed money into this garbage conclusion.

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  4. Do they think any of the rioters and looters have bothered to see a doctor or have been to an emergency room? Most young people who are infected are symptom-free so there is no way to know how the disease is spreading among them.

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  5. Trump should scrap the NBER in its entirety. The good counsel of Larry Kudlow and his researchers is all he has needed to supercharge the economy.
    NB

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  6. Obviously, adrenaline fueled rage, smoke from fires, and fresh air are whu flu preventives .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And chanting “Hey hey ho ho, ........ got to go” clears the lungs.

      Singing in a church choir doesn’t.

      Delete
  7. “But if you go carrying pictures of CHAIRMAN MAO
    You ain’t gonna make it with anyone anyhow...”

    ReplyDelete
  8. most rioters are young people who's immune system blocks the virus so the lack of social distancing isn't an issue. We old people stay at home 'clinging to our religion and guns" so I guess we should be thanking the rioters....except all that burning causes global warming/sarc

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  9. Will easing our pain of doing away with the NBER, take out the trash of the EPA as well.

    ReplyDelete

  10. Newsweek reports that “Oklahoma Reports Highest Ever Daily COVID-19 Cases After Trump Tulsa Rally”

    Here, I thought it took 3 to 14 days for SARS-COv2 to incubate, but with Trump rally goers, it seems 1-2 days is enough.

    119,615 total US COVID deaths.

    Normally, 119,615 die every 15 days without COVID-19
    119,615 is 10.96% of all deaths since 6-Feb-2020 (1st reported COVID death)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who still reads Newsweek anyway?
      NB

      Delete
    2. Have you seen a recent issue? They're a smidgen thicker than the edge of a razor blade.

      Delete
  11. Well, every murder lessens the chance of more murders, by one.
    If there are fewer people there are fewer people who can murder and who will be murdered.
    So murder is good for the murder rate.

    Or something like that.....

    ReplyDelete