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Tuesday, May 26, 2020

The great American comeback



Before he was president, Donald John Trump was a failure. Twice divorced, nearly bankrupted, and mocked by his enemies in the press. Who better to lead the nation out of this stupid recession we brought upon ourselves? It is not that he fell -- spectacularly -- a billion dollars in debt. It is that he rose again.

In 1997, he published a memoir detailing his return to greatness, The Art of the Comeback.

He wrote, "I got a little cocky and, probably, a little bit lazy. I wasn't working as hard, and I wasn't focusing on the basics. I traveled around the world to the spring fashion shows in France. What the hell did I have to travel to Paris for when we have better fashion shows in New York? The models were the same. Believe me, the clothes were beautiful, but I wasn't looking at the clothes.

"I began to socialize more, probably too much. Frankly, I was bored. I really felt I could do no wrong. Sort of like a baseball player who keeps hitting home runs or a golfer who keeps winning tournaments -- you just get a feeling of invincibility. Ultimately, this invincible feeling, while positive at times, can be destructive. You let down your guard. You don't work as hard. Then things start to go in the wrong direction. And that's what happened to me -- and I never thought it could. Sadly, Jerry was right that day on Fifth Avenue. Eleven years later, in 1990, the market was so horrendous that prices, for even the best buildings in town, were plummeting. Apartments were being bought at prices you never thought possible. It was a complete disaster."

And he was overextended. He could not pay the vigorish on his debt. He took charge. He negotiated his way out.  He came back.

America's pandemic panic is ending with a vengeance.

CNBC reported, "President Donald Trump’s top economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, told CNBC on Tuesday that GDP growth in the U.S. should hit at least 3% in 2020."

Critics will say that is just the administration blowing smoke. Fine. Dandy. But if the economy is dead, why are Democrats so worried?

Politico reported, "The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading."

The story began, "In early April, Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration and now a professor at Harvard, was speaking via Zoom to a large bipartisan group of top officials from both parties. The economy had just been shut down, unemployment was spiking and some policymakers were predicting an era worse than the Great Depression. The economic carnage seemed likely to doom President Donald Trump’s chances at reelection."

The Democrat Demolition Crew thought they were a success in econocide.

Furman told them, "We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country."

That was not what they wanted to hear.

Mind you, Furman said that before the good news that Kudlow touted a month later.

Politico reported, "Furman’s case begins with the premise that the 2020 pandemic-triggered economic collapse is categorically different than the Great Depression or the Great Recession, which both had slow, grinding recoveries.

"Instead, he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.

"The covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industrywide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill."

Kudlow told Politico the same thing he has been telling everyone who will book him on TV: "I totally agree. Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021."

Another Trump economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, told Politico that a Congressional Budget Office analysis predicted a 21.5% annualized growth rate in the third quarter. He said, "If CBO is correct we will see the strongest quarter in history after the weakest in Q2."

The economic devastation will take time to heal. Does anyone care to visit New York City? Easily half the small businesses -- the backbone of the middle class -- may not re-open.

But Donald Trump fixed the fundamentals of the American economy with new trade deals and tax reform that has reversed the move of American corporate headquarters overseas.

NBAPDT.

Never Bet Against Donald John Trump.

13 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. (same as deleted comment with an edit) (I also grew up in Queens and he is most certainly a child of the borough).
    My admiration for the President and my trust in him is unbounded but I feel I must share this.

    The President's sister is no slouch herself -- she rose to be a judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. Anyway, it was reported that after publication of one of his books that she said ,"He's written more books than he's read." I don't believe it but it makes good copy.

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  3. Dems are stuck on stupid right now. Everyone can see that what they're doing is crazy. Things are picking up in Texas and I believe they will take off again and lead the nation in the recovery. Lot's of pent up desire out here. I'm looking for a new car but I think there's going to be some good prices soon so I've held off. I'm not alone....

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    1. 0% 84 months on all 2019s from Ford. (Salivates)

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    2. Nice. Extra cash for the repairs.

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    3. With AVIS and Hertz (now in Chap 11) cutting back in purchases and reducing inventory, there could be some great deals in both new and used cars.

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  4. PDJT’s economic team is fantastic. They’ve been together from the start Ross, Mnuchin, Lighthizer. I hope they all stay on for the second term.

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  5. The holiday crowds across the nation thumbing their nose at the social distancing bs is another indicator of optimism and positive "get back to normal" thinking. Also proves no one is listening to the doomsday media....thank God!

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  6. Politicians who don't lead us into recovery will find themselves left behind t the polls, and that includes New York and California.
    NB

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  7. Half Whitmer said she will not apologize, however, she will be sorry. Mark my words.

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  8. Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts.

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  9. Roaring back. Like a fricken lion with Trump hair, baby! I wish I was 20 years younger. There are SO many opportunities right now, or soon, that my brain won't stop creating new fortunes. Unfortunately the spirit is willing, but the flesh, not so much.
    For what it's worth, I pass along the best thoughts to youngsters, hoping to spark something.

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