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Saturday, May 23, 2020

A 2008 plan for a 2020 election

Donald John Trump schooled Democrats in 2016. Fortunately, they believe they are too smart to have anything to learn from an, ugh, Orange Man. And so they keep playing to their base. It worked in 2008. It worked in 2012. Joe Biden will do just fine.

They believe anyone could have won in 2016 except Hillary.

She just suffered from sexism, right? Passing out at the 9/11 commemoration was from pneumonia, and not John Barleycorn.

So they ignore President Trump torching their firewall of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Midwest. So they ignore President Trump swiping about one-tenth of Obama's supporters. So they ignore President Trump reaching out to black and Hispanic voters.

All they need to do is gin up their base.

Politico reported, "Joe Biden’s advisers and allies have become torn over whether it is more important to choose an African American or a progressive running mate.

"While the two aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive, there is an ongoing debate about whether Biden has the black vote locked up or whether the bigger need we have is to put someone left-leaning on the ticket, a strategist familiar with discussions said.

"The strategist was one of multiple Democrats who described a debate in and around the periphery of Biden’s campaign about the significance of race and ideology in the vice presidential selection. They are also debating how wary Biden should be of selecting someone who has not been tested by the rigors of a presidential campaign.

"The need to generate enthusiasm within the Democratic base is a driving force in every scenario — and potential running mates and their supporters are well aware of it. In an effort to frame Biden’s thinking, a number of them are now mounting early and, in some cases aggressive, lobbying and counter-lobbying campaigns.

"Stacey Abrams, a former Georgia lawmaker and unsuccessful candidate for governor, has been privately calling Democratic power brokers, asking them to tell Biden campaign officials that she should be vice president, according to multiple labor leaders familiar with the discussions.

"Elizabeth Warren is cranking up her small-donor machine. The Biden campaign has noticed that in media appearances, Warren, the progressive senator from Massachusetts, consistently plugged JoeBiden.com and urged people to donate — an appeal that a Biden adviser said did not come from the campaign."

***

In the past, Democrat candidates ran left in the primaries and headed for the center in the general election. Biden is doing the opposite.

The idea of having a woman candidate who appeals to your party's ideological core is straight from the 2008 playbook.

John McCain's 2008 playbook.

It almost worked. But McCain wanted to take one for the team. His Democrat team. So the campaign sabotaged Sarah Palin.

What we are not hearing from Biden (and I doubt we will) is how he will woo any supporter of President Trump. Biden and his campaign staff believe they can just put together the 2008 coalition that elected Obama. To hell with the deplorables.

Well, why not put together the LBJ coalition? That was bigger and better for Democrats. Biden can promise to keep us out of Vietnam. He can run ads saying President Trump will saw off the Eastern Seaboard.

Democrats believe they won in 2016 and that 2018 was a referendum on President Trump.

But America elected Donald Trump in 2016, and the midterm election was an embarrassment for Democrats. They won the House -- but saw 4 incumbent senators lose. That was the most incumbent senators of an out-of-power party to lose a midterm in 84 years. The out-of-power party usually gains in both houses of Congress.

Biden needs to come up with a plan that does not involve America longing for the days of Obama when their LaSalle ran great.

13 comments:

  1. I double many will leave the Trump camp and move to Biden, but the opposite may happen. The Dems hope that the virus will destroy Trumps chances, but the Dems constant flip flopping on that issue I'm sure will be a major part of Trump's campaign videos. Impeachment over a "perfect" telephone call to the president of Ukraine won't help either.

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    1. The Democrats are making two demonstrably incorrect assumptions: (1)everyone who voted for Hillary in 2016 will turn out and vote for the 2020 nominee and (2) a percentage of people who voted for Trump in 2016 will turn out and vote for the Dem instead.

      There is no evidence supporting either assumption and in fact there is considerable evidence that the opposite is happening. Trump has lost few if any supporters and lots of people have deserted the Dems.

      The Dem deserters may or may not vote for Trump, but if they don't vote at all, it's curtains for Biden.

      Yay!!

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  2. DemonRATS won back the House in 2018 in no small measure because of Obama’s spying on opposition candidates. Let’s see how that works this time.

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    1. Not only spying, there is significant evidence of voter fraud in many districts.

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    2. I believe Obama dirt dug up by illegally accessing NSA data (phone, texts, emails, etc) when confronted with blackmail forced 55 Republicans to decide to retire and not run for re-election in 2018.

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    3. Independents to an extent, bought the Russia collusion hoax in 2018, with 36 or so "moderates" running in purple districts and lying about their political beliefs. Now that the truth is coming out and those 36 so-called moderates have voted however Nancy told them to vote we'll just see if 2020 is the same. The special election to replace Katie Hill in CA-25 might just be the bellweather.

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  3. Known, proven facts, people. Katie “Swill” Hill won CA-25 by 9 in 2018. She then skid marks a hotel couch and her seat goes R +12 two weeks ago. That’s a TWENTY ONE POINT SWING, people. “Turn out the lights, the party’s over...” (Dandy Don Meredith)

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    1. The party's never over in politics. Nothing is written in stone. Everything in politics is written in jello (the same substance that forms the spine of most professional politicians).
      -TK

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    2. You're right, the party is never over, but CA-25 wasn't the only bellwether.

      In Virginia, a solidly Democratic city tossed out its three democrat councilmen and re-elected its lone Republican. The turnout was huge, 17k vs. 7k in the previous council election.

      The blue state governors think they're harming Trump's chances, but they're destroying their own margin of victory, the middle class who are now against the draconian measures.

      Democratic leaders may think the left wing is their base, but it's barely 30% of the electorate at voting time. They're driving away their voting margin of victory, that alienation may not last more than a few cycles, but it'll really kill them come November.

      Larry Farria

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  4. I still think it will be Big Mike for VP, if Slow Joe even makes it to the convention. If he doesn’t, it will be Big Mike for POTUS. The immense but not immensely talented Stacy Abrams will take her ball and go home.

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    1. She won't take the job, she's got millions now and a nice comfy life. No chance.

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  5. I don't always comment but when I do I admire LBJ


    I love people who don't know politics pontificating about LBJ "coalitions" or LBJ this or LBJ that

    To understand LBJ is to understand central Texas. Anyone even mentioning LBJ should visit his Birthplace. If you go there and take the long long way to get to the Johnson manor house you can almost understand him. Almost.

    Johnson was a Patrician in the original Roman sense. A Patrician born of Patricians. LBJ could have easily been a 3rd world dictator in another life and another country. But no he was a rich man's son born to wealth who saw the "plight of the poor man" and thought he could do better.

    Or course a few terms in the DC House of Representatives disabused him of any thought of "helping the poor" without "helping the rich".

    LBJ was a great man. Who would have been happy being the Kingmaker never the King. Unfortunately a trip to Dallas TEXAS changed all that.

    So LBJ found himself in power (unexpectedly) and wondered what to do with this new power that would not - 1 - make people think he killed JFK to get power - 2 - actually use his place in history for "something".

    And that's how we get to the "Great Society" era.

    But, as history often does it's the unintended consequences that really tarnish the LBJ legacy.

    No one thought the Supreme Court (of all places) would codify in a ruling that Gov Programs are "entitlements" and in effect "new property" (Thanks Warren, unhollowed be thy name).

    No one thought that sidelining Vietnam "brush fire" would tear apart the republic. LBJ (silly man) thought he could do guns and butter at the same time.

    But if you look at Medicaid and Medicare you see the bureaucratic genius of LBJ.


    but again unintended consequences

    Medicaid brought big time computerization of these "money to the poor" aka "dole" benefits. Which a certain H Ross Perot used to found his company providing to States given HUGE block grants to "do Medicaid and 'figure it out'"

    then Ross Perot used that Democrat largess to build a company and become a billionaire who then in turn ran against George Bush the elder (another Patrician's son) and give the Presidency to an unknown Arkansas Governor named William Jefferson Clinton

    Bill Clinton later was distracted by a Blue Beret and promised his wife that if she stayed he would give her the Presidency on a Silver Platter. And the rest is history.

    The moral of the story... invoke LBJ's name at your peril ... you may get Perot-ed

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  6. I was down at the corner store on Thursday and anti-Trump sentiments were being expressed freely.
    I said, 'Yeah, and the best the Democrats can come up with is Joe Biden.'
    Anti-Trump sentiments terminated.
    If the Democrats genuinely believed they could win in November they would be running a very different contest. They've had four years to get ready. If they thought there was a chance for success they would have been climbing over each other to be at the front of the line.
    They'd have a candidate that energised the citizenry. They'd have a candidate who could draw in voters who aren't as happy with President Trump as they thought they would be.
    But that demographic is very small indeed. They know DJT will be P for another four years.

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