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Thursday, April 09, 2020

Not listening to experts saved lives

The New York Times had an intriguing report that if true totally vindicates President Donald John Trump while implicating Dr. Anthony Fauci as the man who shrugged COVID-19 off as just the flu.

Maggie Haberman reported, "A top White House adviser starkly warned Trump administration officials in late January that the corona virus crisis could cost the United States trillions of dollars and put millions of Americans at risk of illness or death.

"The warning, written in a memo by Peter Navarro, President Trump’s trade adviser, is the highest-level alert known to have circulated inside the West Wing as the administration was taking its first substantive steps to confront a crisis that had already consumed China’s leaders and would go on to upend life in Europe and the United States."

The story also said, "Mr. Navarro was at odds with medical experts like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, who had argued that such travel bans only delay the eventual spread.

"Mr. Navarro alluded to that debate on Saturday during a separate argument with Dr. Fauci in the Situation Room about whether the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine was effective in treating or preventing the virus, according to two people familiar with the events."

Had President Trump listened only to experts, we would all be dead by now.

It was a political supporter and appointee -- not a health expert -- who got President Trump to restrict travel to Red China. Fauci opposed the restriction. Now Doctor Doom wants us to stay in quarantine for a year or more. And he casts shade on the cure.

I keep hearing from readers who believe he is the enemy within. Never discount the probability of incompetence.

Navarro, 70, has no medical training. He has a PhD and was a professor of economics and public policy at the University of California, Irvine as a professor of economics and public policy, and is now a professor emeritus. He also wrote, "The Coming China Wars," which likely drew Donald Trump's attention. Navarro's title is Director of Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, but obviously he is there because of his expertise on Red China.

In his January 29 memo on COVID-19, Navarro wrote, "If the probability of a pandemic is greater than roughly 1%, a game-theoretic analysis of the corona virus indicates the clear dominant strategy is an immediate travel ban on China."

Two days later, the president restricted travel from Red China.

And Navarro wrote in that memo, "Regardless of whether the corona virus proves to be a pandemic-level outbreak, there are certain costs associated with engaging in policies to contain and mitigate the spread of the disease. The most readily available option to contain the spread of the outbreak is to issue a travel ban to and from the source of the outbreak, namely, mainland China."

Politico offered the Democrat spin on this, "Navarro left a trail of political wreckage in California. As a candidate, the Trump trade adviser feuding with Fauci was known for his combative ways."

He was a liberal Democrat. Politico wrote, "In his 1996 congressional race, Navarro’s most high profile political foray, he was endorsed by then-First Lady Hillary Clinton, who campaigned for him in San Diego, and he backed the re-election of her husband Bill Clinton for president."

A common enemy can bring all sides in politics together.

15 comments:

  1. Navarro was just using common sense. You have an outbreak, corral it. He just didn't count on idiots like Andy Cuomo throwing open the doors to their states because open borders.

    Had President Trump listened only to experts, we would all be dead by now.

    Hardly. It's a fact the Deep State medicos have been inflating the tally.

    Divide the toll by half and you're probably closer.

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    1. Since deaths from pneumonia, flu, copd,emphysema, chronic bronchitis, and otherwise general infections have fallen to near zero levels I would say divide the toll by three quarters, or more.

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  2. Thomas Sowell’s book And writings on the problems of intellectuals and experts are must reading.

    “Intellectuals and Society” is the book.

    Look up “experts” and Thomas Sowell for lots of articles and videos.

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    1. Agreed Mr. Schlongster! I have a few of Dr. Sowell's books. The Economics and Politics of Race is a must-read. He is as effective in debate as Milton Friedman, and that says a lot. Check him out on YouTube.

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    2. I like Nassim Nicholas Taleb's write up about Intellectual but idiot.

      J in StL

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  3. Normally, Don, you are spot on but you've allowed yourself to get tied up in knots on this. What we see now, based on the actual data being reported (and not the hysterical models of what might happen) is that Fauci's initial take was correct: the CCP flu is just the flu. Banning flights from China may have reduced the rate of spread but the virus was already here and spreading just like other strains of flu spread each year. Yes, CCP flu may be a bit more severe to vulnerable populations than other strains but it's now clear that shutting down was the exact wrong policy. It is preventing us from developing the all important herd immunity we will need before we go into the new flu season in November.

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  4. That idiot Boris Johnson listened to the "experts" and it nearly cost him his life. It's ridiculous that a person in his position listens to "experts". If global warming taught us anything it's that "experts" find the results they're paid to find.

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  5. For what it's worth, there's a pretty significant body of case law that basically states that expert opinion that is not co-provided with facts and suitable analysis should be given little weight.

    Use that standard when evaluating "expert" "opinion." "Expert opinion" that is just an unsupported "opinion" expressed by an "expert" should be given little weight.

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  6. I hesitate to make this point, but here goes. Fauci and the folks making decisions at that time were completely wrong about AIDS for the same reason they are wrong about Wuhan Flu. In the early 80's health officials refused to take steps that would have stopped the the spread of AIDS. I.E. quarantine homosexual, shut down certain business, and enforce the then existing statues against sodomy. As Rush said the other day, AIDS/HIV was the first disease with civil rights and Fauci et al would not take public health steps that targeted one group. Male homosexuals. SImply put he and others did not want to discriminate against one group. Instead he and his team tried to change behavior by everyone.
    Same thing with Wuhan Flu. Fauci didn't want to ban travel to the PRC because he didn't want to discriminate He doesn't want to protect take sensible actions that protect the most at risk...the old, obese, diabetic instead he is inflicting the pain on everyone in order to change everyone's behavior.
    For goodness sakes the man said handshakes should be eliminated. That brain isn't functioning correctly and the spine to make tough targeted decisions may never have existed.

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    1. Dr. Fauci has been practicing bureaucratic medicine for 40 years. When it comes to AIDS, Dr. Montaigner, discoverer of that virus, told an interviewer 11 years ago that a healthy immune system could dispose of it unaided by any medication within three weeks and that it takes co-factors, such as unsanitary living conditions or sex practices or heavy substance abuse, to trigger the virus to do its worst. He lamented that all it takes is a healthy environment and lifestyle to eliminate AIDS, but that the medical establishment (Dr. Fauci for example, although his name was not mentioned) places all its trust in drugs and vaccines, which is where the money is.
      NB

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  7. My favorite Fenyman quote.
    My old Physics Prof. had that on his door.

    "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

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  8. So what do you figure virus expert Dr. Doom was doing in this picture with Bill Gates dad(tall guy on left), Ted Turner, Soros, a Rockefeller and who knows who those other people are. They all think the world has too many people, they all love vaccines that they have complete control over. They hate HCQ. There seems to be a pattern https://twitter.com/mikebravodude/status/1247304982740774912/photo/1

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  9. I say we throw Fauci and Birx in a pond: If the float, they are guilty of consorting with Satan and should be hanged immediately!

    If they sink and stay sunken for at least 15 minutes they've proven they're innocent.

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  10. "An expert is someone who is afraid of anything new, because then he wouldn't be an expert anymore." - President Harry S Truman

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  11. I read somewhere that about 750,000 people traveled from China to the U.S. in the three months or so after this plague broke out. Xenophobia saves lives.

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