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Thursday, February 27, 2020

Why Trump targeted Minnesota and New Mexico



While Bernie Sanders is tied down in a primary battle, the money-flush re-election campaign of President Donald John Trump not only can concentrate on holding the 30 states that elected him president, but it can add a few more.

The wish list begins with Minnesota and New Mexico. The former makes sense, as it was the second-closest loss for him, after New Hampshire.

But New Mexico seems to be a stretch. He lost by 8 points. Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and of course, New Hampshire were closer.

Campaign manager Brad Parscale has a plan and he unveiled it to Republican senators.

The Washington Examiner reported, "Parsacle argued that blue states such as Minnesota or New Mexico could be competitive for Republicans, a lawmaker in attendance told Politico."

Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy told the newspaper, "They’ve been working hard. Whereas last time was kind of spontaneous, this time has been fully prepared. They’ve got states, the pathway to victory that we all know they have, and they may be expanding the field some."

That is an interesting take. Donald Trump had great coattails -- Republicans won all 22 Senate races in the states he carried -- but helping the ticket was an after thought.

He did better in the midterms, which are notorious for punishing a president's party. Nevertheless, he helped spike 4 incumbent Democrats. That's better than any president has done to an opposition party's senators since FDR knocked off 8 incumbent Republican senators in 1934.

Politico reported, "Parscale discussed the map during a Senate GOP retreat at the National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters. Among the states Parscale mentioned as potential targets are Minnesota and New Mexico. Both states have a Senate race this year, though Republicans are not expected to flip either. Hillary Clinton won Minnesota by 1.5 points and New Mexico by 8 points.

"A senior Trump campaign official confirmed that both states are being targeted, among others that Trump lost in 2016, including New Hampshire and Nevada."

Ah, now we are getting somewhere. Minnesota and New Mexico have Senate races. But so do Colorado, Maine, and New Hampshire. The first two have Republican senators who will need President Trump's help.

And New Mexico is 49% Hispanic -- Mexican Hispanic at that. Surely this should doom him if we were to believe the media reports of Hispanic opposition to the wall.

But with Democrat Tom Udall retiring from the Senate, Republicans see a rare opening in New Mexico.

President Trump has worked on keeping a Republican Senate. He stumbled in Alabama in 2017, but rebounded in 2018.

In 2020, Senate seats could be picked in Alabama and Michigan, states he won in 2016. But he could also lose Cory Gardner in Colorado and Susan Collins in Maine if he does not take those states.

Minnesota's Democrat Senator By Accident Tina Smith seems doable just as picking up the state in the presidential race does. Surely Ilhan Omar has worn out her party's welcome in Minnesota.

The news reports do not mention Virginia, where Democrat Mark Warner barely survived the 2014 midterm. Given the backlash over his party's plan to confiscate rifles, Virginia looks as if it can be in play.

A repeat of 2016 would keep the Senate the same. But if President Trump plays his cards right, he could keep Collins and Gardner in the Senate and pick up 4 more seats, for a 59-41 Senate.

That would be the best showing by Republicans in a century. In 1920, the Harding-Coolidge ticket helped Republicans win 25 of 32 races, giving them a 59-37 majority.

But we shall see how this goes. Twinning the presidential and Senate races worked in 2016, particularly in Florida and Wisconsin.

35 comments:

  1. Minnesota GOP better get moving if attendance at the caucus is any indication...very few people showed up with my precinct looking for 15 delegates to volunteer had total of only six people.

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    1. Thanks. This is their opportunity. Sounds like the WVGOP for most of my time here

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  2. Doesn't matter. Even if we get 60 Senators, they have demonstrated their inability to enact legislation in the past and will do so in the future.

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    1. 60 Rs and a lot of things change.

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    2. Actually, it matters a lot. Maybe you have a better plan and if so, please enlighten us. Or are you just looking for an excuse to whine and donate neither time nor money to helping making and keeping America great.
      There is a lot of work yet to be done, but step one is to defeat the Democrats - look at their presidential field and make a case that the GOP is no better. Can't be done. The next step is to improve the GOP.
      Dear Lord, I hope most conservatives have a better attitude than you appear to have. I hope you can set me straight and show that you, too, are serious about making and keeping America great.

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    3. A lot of self-proclaimed "conservatives" (really Libertarians) love to whine.

      Then there are the ROLCONs (role play as Conservative) trolls.

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    4. edutcher:
      How right you are, especially about ROLCONs. Rather than make the case for their own views, they try to discourage and demoralize the opposition (us).
      But then there are those who are simply looking for an excuse to not make any sacrifice, financial or otherwise, expecting others to do all the heavy lifting.
      But whatever their motivation, I've decided to not let their bad attitude go unchallenged.

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    5. Both parties believe their politicians have a career in politics. We need to start challenging them intra-party once they have 12 years in office since we can't seem to get a term limit amendment moving.

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    6. I have always disliked whiners, my children learned that at an early age to stop their whining and do some constructive about the problem, so you whiners stop whining and do something constructive.

      Kate

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  3. The list is MN, NH, NM, NV, ME, CO, VA.

    They also intend to work on OR and NJ from what I've seen.

    Regardless of who gets the nod, the Demos look to lose big, so a repeat of '72 isn't out of possibility.

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  4. Sometimes, I believe there is conservative voter reluctance to even try and vote in largely liberal states. By campaigning in those states you create an interest in conservatives to get out and vote and like the polls in 2016, there may be more hidden conservative votes than we know, certainly for some marginal down ticket slots. I used to live in Illinois and we down staters felt that was not much we could do to influence the vote given all the votes, both real and imaginary in Chicago.

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    1. And the media I’m sure helps deflate the spirits of conservative voters in these states

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    2. #LazyTrumpists have a hundred excuses for doing nothing. Don't be one of them.

      Instead, be like the conservatives who laugh at the Establishment Media and carry on.

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  5. Big ole factual error in post. "Republicans won all 22 Senate races in states that Trump carried."

    Wrong!! Your state of West Virginia - which had the highest percent win total for Trump - elected a Dem senator - Joe Manchin. He defeated mini-Morrisey.

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    1. The Manchin-Morrisey race was in 2018, not 2016.

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  6. If you will excuse an OT post, here's another Pro-Trump link to add to the ones you've posted:
    https://www.thedonald.win/

    This is where the Reddit community "The Donald" had begun to move since Reddit has started a purge and replace campaign against their moderators. ='[.]'=

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  7. With the apparent growth in black and Latino support, maybe PDJT has a better than we think chance in those states. He must also have a plan to attack voter fraud, just not telegraphing it.

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  8. Trump lost New Mexico by 8%, but Gary Johnson took more than 9%. If the libertarians break GOP in the face of an extremist Dem candidate, it's well within range for him.

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    1. Generally in a three-way race between two candidates of the incumbent parties and a third party candidate, the latter is used by voters as a proxy for NOTA (none of the above). Most voters who vote third party wouldn't have voted at all in that race had the third party candidate not been there. The rest of them are committed to their third party and wouldn't vote for any candidate of an incumbent party anyway.

      So don't kid yourself. That 9% doesn't 'belong' to the GOP. You'll have to get out in public, campaign for your candidate, and earn those votes yourself.

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    2. Gary Johnson was Governor in New Mexico and so had huge name recognition. A fair amount of his support was from people who supported *him*, not a vote for NOTA.

      Yeah, he was Governor a while back, but he was very well known to the electorate in NM

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  9. It shouldn't matter, but it would be good "optics" if Trump got a plurality of total votes cast (I won't call it the "popular vote" because there's no such thing in the Constitution). That means motivating blue state Republicans to go out and vote anyway. And if they do, there might be some nice surprises for Republicans and upsets for the Dems.

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    1. Don't call it "blue state" because there's no such thing in the Constitution.

      And don't be bamboozled by a former Cuomo aide turned TV reporter who had a mis-colored map as a prop when discussing the 2000 race results and the Florida recount.

      Red has historically been the color of the socialists of all parties. That's the reason the Reds are red. Just look at their banners! Don't let the soft-core socialist party in the USA try to disguise itself as true-blue American. It isn't. It's pink and going toward full on Red.

      Finally, don't talk about "motivating... Republicans to go out and vote" just do it!

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    2. Finally!...Someone to point out the reason the lib print and broadcast media were so quick to adopt those colors. They clearly avoided coloring the Dems by the shade most associated with their beliefs and leanings>>> red. ZB

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  10. Another possible reason for targeting NM. The Dims stole the 2nd Congressional District (southern NM) by fake absentee ballots in Doña Ana county (Las Cruces, 2nd largest city in an admittedly small state) which had been represented by Republicans Joe Sheen and Steve Pearce for 36 of 38 years since 1980.

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  11. Wouldn't an actual Republican be preferable to Collins? Every time I read about her she seems opposed to Trump and his agenda.

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    1. Nobody stopped you from moving to Maine and running against Susan Collins yourself.

      By the way, who is more "an actual Republican", Sen. Collins or a reality TV game show host with a shady past in real estate who has repeatedly donated to Clinton campaigns and flip flopped from Democrat to Republican to Democrat depending on pique and who can hand him government subsidies? Uh huh, Trump is a RINO. Not just any kind of RINO, Trump is the Maximum RINO. Ugh!

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  12. In 2016 Hillary Clinton won Minnesota by 45,000 votes, but only carried 9 counties in the state. This does make the state competitive for Trump in 2020.

    Trump is not going to win the major urban counties that Hillary took but he should target the Metro suburban counties he lost more narrowly to Hillary by 13,000 (Dakota and Washington). Targeting these counties has the added bonus that the Minneapolis/St Paul television market also covers a portion of Western Wisconsin, a battle ground state.

    But where Trump can make a huge breakthrough is in St Louis county in NE Minnesota. He lost this county by 13,000 votes (57k-44k). But if he can make up ground here by campaigning on the topic of MINING he might be able to completely swing this county.

    I think the non-Metro area turnout will be solidly Trump without any type of resources required. If he runs better in the suburban counties (and there is some evidence he will), tackles the gap in St Louis county, and gets a Trump turnout in the rural counties, MInnesota is bigly in play.

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  13. Most Republican Senate votes have been solid over the decades, and a few have been rock-solid. We have a strong tendency to remember the losses and defectors because of the pain in the moment.

    Think of it this way. If we need 51 votes and get 48, we lose and we curse the GOPe and all those RINO bastards. But it means 48 out of 51 held firm. We need to win those battles at the margins, and that is done with volunteering, not complaining. This is the great weakness of the strong Trump supporters, that they think they are the only reliable people out there, ignoring those Republicans who have labored in the vineyard thanklessly for years. Take your turn at the plow before you criticise.

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  14. Minnesota is in play, but there's no way the GOP flips Ilhan Omar's 5th Congressional District. If not Omar, it will go to whomever the Democrats run.

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  15. What you leave out are the quislings in the GOPe. They gave the dems three Senate seats in 2016, one in 2017, and three more in 2018. They gave the dems the House in 2018 by retiring in unprecedented numbers. They wanted the dems to impeach Trump.
    Back in 2016, they supported Hillary and prevented Trump from winning NH and MN. They cost Trump the popular vote and made the unCivil war we find ourselves in possible. Trump has nothing to fear from the 2020 can'tidates, it's the deep state and IC he has to keep his eyes on.

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  16. Wow! Does Lysol kill Coronavirus? It says so on the label - VIDEO

    https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2020/02/wow-does-lysol-kill-coronavirus-it-says.html

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  17. I'm waiting to see a detailed analysis of House races. If Nancy Pelosi is still Speaker next January it will be more RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA IMPEACH IMPEACH IMPEACH

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  18. As a Minnesota voter, Trump can easily win Minnesota in an honest vote. However the Democrat corruption is so out of control there it may be hopeless. I just wished someone would have, just once, spoke up or held those responsible to account. However, they get away with it every year so it keeps on happening.

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