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Tuesday, December 03, 2019

2019 is a banner year for America



2019 is the most remarkable year I can remember for the U.S. economy.

CNBC reported, "In 2019, almost every investment worked."

With a month to go, all this optimism may be jinxing the year. But what a sharp contrast to the gloom and doom the media relished a year ago when the stock market was in a correction after a 2-year explosion following our election of Donald John Trump as our president.

Mini Mike Bloomberg's news service reported on December 10, 2018, "Donald Trump Owns This Stock Market. It wasn’t smart to dump a dovish Fed chief, run up the deficit, and start a trade war. Trump did all three."

One year later, the S and P 500 is up 25% and rising.

You would think a business news service would understand how the stock market works.

But nevertheless, the column ended, "we are nearing the halfway mark of Trump’s presidency. Those waiting for that pivot toward his being presidential have been disappointed. Instead, they are now extrapolating his policy errors forward, and finding a significant and negative affect on the U.S. economy and stock markets.

"I’m not in the business of making forecasts, so I will pose a question: Does anyone think it gets better from here?"

Hahaha.

And the kicker is, on December 26, 2018, the president said buy and that is when the correction ended. Just like that. This guy is so smart, he should be a billionaire.

And he is.

But this is not about the president. This is about making money, and most investors will this year.

CNBC reported, "From stocks to government debt to corporate bonds to commodities, no matter where you went, you reaped a profit this year. The S and P 500 is up more than 25% and counting. Treasurys, which tend to fall when risk assets rally, also gained in 2019. Oil, gold and corporate bonds all scored double-digit returns.

"For stock investors specifically, it was hard to guess wrong. A look at the S&P 500 companies’ internal performance shows only 64 names, or 12%, are down this year."

That is 436 winners, 64 losers.

The story went on to say, "Wall Street’s equity strategists are generally more cautious about 2020, with the average S&P 500 target of 3,272 implying a little more than 5% gain."

Gee, only a 5% gain.

I will take it. Let us not act spoiled. Good years financially are rare. Savor this one.

10 comments:

  1. Last sentence: No truer words! Carpe diem, indeed.
    Bloomberg's news company interviews I find to be full of people lying about one thing or another for personal gain. He should have stuck to satisfying his apparently boundless personal greed by selling more real data instead of mostly faulty opinions, including his own.

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  2. 5% works for me. All the time. But I have loved this year. The nay-sayers (sonny are you there) will pounce on today's market. Sorry nanny, but the arrow is still pointing UP. MAGA.

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  3. My retirement investment account is up over 18% since 12/31/18. That's good in anybody's book.

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  4. Thanks Obama! All of the trends started under your administration. Too bad Trumpy the clown ran up the deficit for a sugar high. The hangover will be brutal. And the Trump deficit only blossoms.

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    1. Haters gotta hate, brother...

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    2. What under Obama worked? Cash for clunkers or the stimulus to nowhere? And ACA wasted untold trillions of dollars.

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    3. Obama only DOUBLED the county's debt.

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  5. I’m an engineer, so I have a pretty good head on my shoulders. But I know almost nothing about how the stock market works and I only have a rudimentary understanding of basic economics. I didn’t have any economics courses in school, although I wish I would have looking back on it. But even I knew that the economy would explode when the Republicans cut the corporate tax rates back in 2017. There is a popular talk show host who is fond of saying, “Tax cuts work every time they are tried.” And he’s right. The economy blew up after Reagan cut taxes, just as it did for Kennedy, and just as it did for Eisenhower. What I don’t get is how is it that these educated betters of ours can get things so wrong, but someone like me knew exactly what would happen. I remember watching MSNBC back in 2017 just after Trump signed the tax cuts into law. I think I was watching Dana Bash (but not positive) and her guest, who was playing devil’s advocate, and who listed all the positive benefits the tax cuts would have on the economy. I can remember the utter disdain that she showed on her face as her guest checked off all the benefits that would happen. I remember thinking to myself, “You stupid b**ch, just step aside and watch what happens now.” I think these people let their political biases get in the way of common sense.

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    1. Thank you for your candor and insight. To expand your economic understanding and to understand what truly free markets are, I recommend this short and simple story - I, Pencil. All of my kids have read it and thanked me for it.

      https://fee.org/resources/i-pencil/

      I, Pencil is not to be confused with Pencil Neck Schiff.

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  6. They are paid shills to put forth what thier masters wish to be put forth. Also don't discount them being educated idiots with no real world experience either. B.S.G.

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