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Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Media got the economy wrong, too



This summer, Matt Drudge and the rest of the media tried to talk America into a recession, believing a recession will make the Orange Man a one-term president.

But after Labor Day, businessmen returned from the Hamptons and other trendy vacation spots, rolled up their sleeves 1 1/2 turns, and went back to work. They are too busy making money to be bothered with a politically convenient recession.

The trade war with Red China goes well.

President Donald John Trump tweeted today, "China suspends Tariffs on some U.S. products. Being hit very hard, supply chains breaking up as many companies move, or look to move, to other countries. Much more expensive to China than originally thought."

The communists will lift tariffs on 16 categories of U.S. goods including food for livestock, cancer drugs and lubricants. I sense panic.

And they should panic. The president is most correct about supply chains. Last month, the president ordered companies to seek new suppliers. They are.

The Financial Times reported, "U.S. retailers are ditching Chinese suppliers at an accelerating rate in response to President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, switching sourcing of thousands of goods from furniture to bicycles to countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand. Top executives at several household names have disclosed fresh details of their tariff response plans since the latest tranche — 15% levies on $112 billion worth of Chinese imports — took effect on September 1."

Tariffs and President Trump are doing permanent damage to Red China as factory orders move away from the communists.

Chairman Xi should have cut a deal last year. Betting on a Democrat win was foolish, not because a Democrat will not win -- never say never -- but because in the interim Red China is bleeding permanent customers.

A savvy dictator would have cut a deal knowing that once Americans elect a Democrat president, Red China can go back to robbing America.

Instead, the trade war continued. President Donald John Trump is causing a recession: in Red China, not here.

But don't take my word for it. Follow the money men. They are betting against a recession.

CNBC reported, "There’s a shift underway in the stock market that may be signalling that some investors believe there was way too much pessimism on Wall Street this summer, and the stocks that do better in an improving economy are the ones to buy for now.

"Big banks such as JP Morgan and Bank of America were higher Tuesday, as were cyclical names like Caterpillar and Deere, while growth names like Microsoft, Intuit, Adobe, Pay Pal and Visa were lower.

"The cheapest stocks, those with the lowest price-to-earnings ratios were snapped up, while many of the most expensive companies, or those with the highest price to earnings ratios, were being sold.

"Sentiment has shifted in part because of signs of improvement in the trade talks between the U.S. and China. Interest rates have been rising for the same reason, and some investors are betting that Treasury yields may have bottomed for now."

The story also said, "According to a study by CNBC’s Chris Hayes, the 50 stocks in the S&P 500 with the highest forward P/Es, meaning the most expensive, were down an average 0.8% Tuesday afternoon, with 64% trading lower. The 50 stocks in the index with the lowest P/Es, or the relatively cheapest, rose an average 2.3%, and 90% were trading higher Tuesday."

***

So the big money is eschewing low risk, low return stocks in favor of high risk, high return stocks. That shows confidence in the economy.

That does not mean there will not be a recession. Indeed, the media blitz this summer worked, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll, which showed 6 out of every 10 Americans believe unhappy days are just around the corner.

But as much as big money investors and CEOs like to hang out with Democrats at the beach and at the dock in the summer, the money men like making money more. They will do anything for Democrats except tank the economy.

President Trump is a rainmaker for America's money men.

His capital gains tax cut was brilliant. It got companies to stop moving their headquarters overseas (or overlakes to Canada). It also made investing in American companies more attractive as they now get to keep 79 cents from every buck they earn instead of 65.

And his trade war with Red China is really helping the stock market. Red China's rich are looking for a place to park their ill-gotten gains.

I continue to stay in the market. Someday, we will have a recession. But that day does not look to be today.

15 comments:

  1. It is telling that it took a shopkeeper's daughter to rescue the UK's economy from the landed aristocrats and permanent politocracy whose income was based on livings and investments and taxpayer's money rather than work. Trump is simply following Thatcher's lead. Money doesn't grow on trees, but you can make money from trees.

    TarsTarkas

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  2. The economy is nothing more than a continuation of trends that started under Obama.

    Thanks Obama!

    The Dunning Kruger kids love to talk about the economy from their perch on Mt. Stupid. They "know stuff", just ask them. Not sure if Mt. Stupid is shared by Trump with his marks or if he too is on Mt. Stupid with them.

    Thanks Obama for turning around the economy. Let's hope the Dunning Kruger Kids are all in when the trade war undoes the gains.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you say so, Susan. But history will blacken your eye. I do not even have to touch it. Barack was out for himself and the elites, period. And that's why Trump will be re-elected: the democrats think we're stupid. Just like you do, Susan.

      Delete
    2. Leave the troll alone. Susan has had it rough. Mueller Report vindicated the Orange Man. We have the best economy since I was 16. Republicans won both bellwether elections last night. Sad.

      Delete
    3. It always amazes me that some people go through life in abject ignorance.

      Delete
    4. The Dow was sitting around 8800 when obama took office. It reached 17888 when he/she/it left. (Just trying to be gender nonspecific for any y'all snowflakes out there)
      Stocks right now are over 27000.
      President Donald John Trump's economic policies have outperformed obama's in less than half the time, and oh yeah unemployment at an all time low.
      My 401k thanks Trump
      My IRA thanks Trump
      My weekly paycheck thanks Trump
      and I thank Trump.
      -LG

      Delete
    5. Also, my mom in law, dad, son, and daughter thank Mr. T for all the Kwon I’ve been able to gift and support them with, thanks to a retirement egg that grows faster than I can spend it!

      Delete
    6. Your sarcasm is noted. It needs a bit of work though..

      Delete
    7. President Trump's election was a big thank you and FU to Obama.

      Delete
  3. Susan is repeating himself now. His AI chip needs an upgrade.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The idiots post the same caca on POTUS and FLOTUS's Facebook pages.

      Delete
  4. How much credit can we give Obama for the economy when just about all his economic advisors predicted economic disaster if PDJT's economic plans were instituted?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Krugman won the Economic Idiot Prize. Obama whined about a magic wand or something. LOL.

      Delete
  5. The ultimate act of force is the murder of the innocent, whether mental, physical, spiritual, or moral. The progressives see innocence as a flaw in any case, which is why they work so hard to despoil or kill it. Anything that questions their authority is slated for destruction.

    ReplyDelete
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