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Friday, August 16, 2019

Worst financial expert predicts recession



Bill Maher spoke for most of the media when he said he hoped for a recession to rid the nation of President Donald John Trump. They are doing their best to promote one. Fox Business News gave airtime to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital to tell viewers that the recession is coming.

Schiff said, "This trade war is lost. The only question is when do we surrender and how do we admit defeat."

And he said, "The dollar is going to go through the floor and it’s going to take the bond market with it and the next crisis, it’s not subprime mortgages, it’s going to be in the Treasury market."

And he said, "This is going to be the inflationary recession, there’s no way out and it's a political disaster for Trump because the recession is going to start before he finishes this term, which means he won’t have a second term."

Schiff forecast the global recession of 2008.

He also has predicted a recession seemingly every year since.

Luis Pablo de la Horra of the Foundation for Economic Education listed Schiff fifth among "5 of the Worst Economic Predictions in History,"

Topping the list was, "Irving Fisher Predicting a Stock Market Boom—Right Before the Crash of 1929."

On Schiff, de la Horra wrote, "Financial commentator Peter Schiff became famous in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis for having foreseen the housing crash back in 2006 (even a broken clock is right twice a day). Since then, he has been predicting economic catastrophes every other day, with very limited success.

"There are many examples of failed predictions from which to draw upon. For instance, in a 2010 video, Schiff foretold that Quantitative Easing (the unconventional monetary policy undertaken by the Fed between 2008 and 2014) would result in hyperinflation and the eventual destruction of the Dollar. Unfortunately for Schiff, the average inflation rate per year since the onset of QE has been 1.68%, slightly below the 2% target of the Fed."

Past performance is no guarantee of the future.

He might be right this time.

Or the next time.

Or the time after that.

16 comments:

  1. He became a economist because he liked voodoo science. Is he kin of Adam Schitfor brains?

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    1. Must be something about that name. They ain’t worth Schiff.

      Delete
  2. The longer I live, the more I believe that all economics is micro. Watching the experts be so wrong about nearly everything they’re so sure about only reinforces it.

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  3. Prior to his prediction for 2008, what was he doing? Predicting the recession of 2007, the recession of 2006, the recession of 2005..…...
    What is his percentage?

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    Replies
    1. He's just a variant of Paul Krugman, who in addition to supporting every tax increase that was ever proposed (unless Republicans proposed them) also has predicted the last forty recessions since 1979.

      TarsTarkas

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  4. Was anyone on FBN with AS for rebuttal?

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  5. One thing the Dunning Kruger Kids are fer sure experts on is the economy. They say silly things like tariffs work, and other nonsense that you'll be able to put on Trump's 2020 tombstone.

    https://kids.kiddle.co/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

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  6. Yoram Bauman - "Macro-economists have predicted nine out of the last five recessions." - GOC

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  7. Main Street is doing fine, but Wall Street is looking worse every day as the globalists on Wall Street see their investments in export country's economies going south. When Walmart has a 5% growth and is upping its expectations for the future and Macy's is failing. Brick and mortar stores with name brands in their inventory can do well, but Macy's reportedly with their new management team has moved down to challenging Walmart.

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  8. Schiff is a gold bug. Every prediction he makes ends with "buy gold" which is still well below its 2012 high.

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  9. Thanks Don I am tired of these financial experts like schiff and jim rodgers constantly telling us the sky is going to fall any day now. They are one trick ponies and im not sure what drives them why so gloomy always waiting for the world to end. The us investor worker consumer all have done pretty well under Trump .... Yet they never see any +++. H w em

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  10. The first science created by God was Economics, since before there was anything, there was Chaos.

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  11. The theory was 2-fold, or at least the crap peddled to the public.

    Off shoring would shed labor intensive, dangerous, environmentally damaging, low paying jobs to other countries. The US would replace those, mostly, with higher paying, more technical or other white collar style jobs.

    The return of cheaper products would allow US consumerism to flourish lifting all boats worldwide, includung the stock price of the multinational.

    The higher stock price would benefit workers because, due to no company pensions, workers were all detached shareholders via private retirement vehicles.

    The Democrats during the 70-80s were apoplectic about off shoring and the loss of steady jobs.

    Small town America darn near completely died. Heck, several large cities are in downward spirals today due to this.

    Then 1990s happened. Democrats morphed back, generally, to their traditional party line of globalism under Bill Clinton and NAFTA. No, Reagan did not envision what became NAFTA when he dreamed of free trade between Canada, Mexico, and the US.The Republicans were more than willing to go along, although. NAFTA created exactly what Perot warned.

    Yes, new industries and jobs were created, but not enough to replace the jobs that left. Jobs that families could buy a house, cars, and send kids to college with.

    So, today, those that might have had a productive career at one company or maybe two, work in even lower paying service jobs slinging burgers and fries or trying to be self-employed taxis or delivery men with no or scant benefits and pretty much no way to support themselves.

    Better Wall Street was touted as a way to better Main Street.

    It did not happen except in small pockets.

    Oddly, or really not that odd at all, Wall Street is doing extremely well that Main Street is doing better.

    'magine that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We used to make stuff in this country. Then we sent all our factories overseas. The said "Look at all the cheap stuff you can buy."

      What good is cheap stuff when you're flat broke because your job got deported?

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  12. Then there's the classic jibe that so-and-so is a great economic forecaster - "He correctly predicted 12 out of the last two recessions!"

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