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Sunday, November 18, 2018

Trump has won the midterm

A week ago ,when Florida was in disarray and Brenda Snipes seemed to be stealing the election, I told readers not to freak out. I said Republicans would fight for the seats they won, and they did.

The midterm election was a referendum on President Trump. He hit the campaign trail. He won.

Republicans cashiered four incumbent Democrat senators. You have to go back to 1934 -- 84 years ago -- to find a president's party that did as well in the Senate in a midterm.

Obama failed to defeat even one Republican incumbent senator in his two midterms.

According to Nate Silver, incumbent senators of the opposition party have a 96% re-election rate in midterm elections.

Only four lost in the previous nine midterms.

President Trump knocked off four in a single midterm. As they were elected or re-elected in 2012, this was more erasure of Obama's troubled legacy.

That's unusual.

Usually parties flip seats when no incumbent is on the ballot. Republicans protected two open seats and lost Arizona. The runoff in Mississippi is the fourth Republican open seat.

Democrats defended their one open seat in Minnesota.

But thanks to President Trump hammering incumbent senators, the net result is Republicans gained at least one senator in a midterm. That's excellent.

Democrat Joe Manchin, who won (as I predicted) in West Virginia was spitting mad after the election because President Trump dared to go after him.

Ha ha ha. Democrats not only have sore losers but sore winners as well.

Republicans faced extremely difficult circumstances. While much was made of the 10 Democrats in Trump states, the fact is 18 of the 20 states Hillary carried had Senate races, while only 15 of the 30 states Donald Trump carried had Senate races.

Thus, 90% of her states had a Senate race to attract voters, and 50% of President Trump's states had no Senate race.

Ousting four incumbent Democrats means Democrats lost four moderates. The party's lurch leftward is now a foot race.

Republicans added four Trump supporters. He was there when they needed him to win the election. I don't expect them to Flake out on him.

As for the House, Democrats get two years to make their case that they can do anything besides complain.

President Trump did just fine.

To put this in perspective, even Lincoln had trouble. In his first midterm, even with the Democratic stronghold leaving the union, Republicans lost 21 House seats (with the expanded Congress, that's the equivalent of 50 seats today) but gained one Senate seat (the equivalent of two today).

The Florida fiasco must depress Democrats who once again thought they could steal an election but were thwarted by a Republican Party that does not roll over and play dead.

I ended my piece on Florida last Sunday, "Democrats cannot steal an election if Republicans refuse to let them.

"Do not worry. President Trump did not campaign his heart out in Florida just to watch Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis surrender.

"The nation is watching Florida. It sees Brenda Snipes. That serves Republicans well. They will prevail because they have a leader."

President Trump is coaching Republicans on how to handle the media and Democrats. These are the best eight years of our lives.

###

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Fake News Follies of 2017 covers his first year as president.

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14 comments:

  1. Superb column, Big D. Admittedly, I feel much better now. But I guarantee ya, if Joe had had to vote BEFORE Collins, it would’ve been a Nay. He loses.

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  2. But thanks to President Trump hammering incumbent senators, the net result is Republicans gained at least one senator in a midterm. That's excellent.

    I've got to disagree. A lot of seats appear to have been stolen by these post election day vote manufactures; McSally (whom I don't really like) and Rosendale along with a goodly number of House seats.

    Trump says he's looking into any evidence of vote fraud anywhere and, if he finds it, there may be some surprises as to who gets seated.

    Right now, it's still up in the air, but coming out with a net gain of one Senate seat with a lot of Christgine Gregoire going on doesn't seem like winning to me.

    Show me everything was on the up and up and I'll agree with you.

    PS What is it in this country that so many states need something like a week to count their vote? We're not talking states out in the boonies where the Pony Express picks up the votes; we're talking CA, NY, IL, NJ. The Demos have picked up 14 House seats since election day. I know, some were close, but every last one (except for Mia Love's)?

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    1. the standard set is that he would lose a lot of seats in the house(45 republicans retired, plus precedent if you believe that sort of thing) and a few seats in the senate, he not only didnt lose as many house seats as predicted he net gained in the senate...... he beat the low bar set.

      I understand your point about conservatives in general having a higher bar, but even then by comparison, no one else has met that bar either so maybe we should cut him a little slack on that part. I would be willing to bet he can set some monster coat tails next election.

      as for what is going on in the country with the states that need a week to count votes, that is its own answer, democrats didnt win and are getting desperate to manufacture votes and are looking in any way possible to do so, even if not for 2018, but definitely for 2020 when they have far less going for them. Bottom line they are getting away with as much as humanly possible in order to see what they can get away with and where to concentrate their efforts next election.

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    2. My issue is, when so many Demos win in these after election day counts when all the "newly discovered" ballots are always solely Democrat, it seems to me we should have a couple more Senate seats and at least 5 - 10 more House seats.

      Vote fraud needs to be prosecuted Federally as a civil rights violation and a felony.

      democrats didnt win and are getting desperate to manufacture votes and are looking in any way possible to do so

      My feeling all along. Scott and Cruz won because the got substantial portions of the black vote. It will be more in more states next time. They're also looking to lose substantial Hispanic support because they want to import Central Americans now that the Mexican influx has waned. After all, 51% of Hispanics (read Mexican) don't want the southern hordes in here.

      So on that we agree.

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  3. You spelled "Fraudiore" wrong...
    From my years in Washington State I know the Rossi family a bit. Dino deserves better..

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  4. Appointments (including judicial) will go through more easily, even with the new senator Mittens Romney Flaking out in Utah. Those require only the Senate to act, not the House. There will be no legislating, since the House will be controlled by the lefty Dems. I would not call this a victory so much as a stalemate. But there was way too much of a wipeout in the House for this to look like victory. Yes, Paul Ryno sabotaging the Trump agenda gave the non-Republican Trump voters no reason to vote R with no Trump on the ballot. And that's why the Republicans did so poorly in the Upper Midwest (MI, WI, MN, IA) where the number of non-Republican Trump voters was the strongest. But whether Ryno was to blame, it was not a win for Trump or the GOP.

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    1. Romney will never be a Flake.

      Flake was a thrall for St John of Hanoi and did whatever Songbird told him.

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  5. If you count up all the great accomplishments by Trump that have been touted here on our host's blog week after week (and elsewhere), the outcome of the recent election is no victory for Republicans. When voters fail to give you credit for the good things you say you did for them, either your efforts at messaging are pathetic or else the voters think you haven't done what matters to them. I'd say the Republicans are the worst politicians in the world at getting their political message across. They let their opponents set the public conversation. It doesn't help that the media are nearly 100% on the other side, of course. But that means the Republicans need to think strategically all the time to counter that, not just in the two months before the vote. It also doesn't help that the Republican Party is divided within by political traitors like Paul Ryan, who dislike Trump more than they savor a Republican victory. I cannot see Democrats ever behaving that way. Good riddance to Ryan and his kind.

    Iapetus

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  6. had Trump refused to listen to Ryan and make the wall an issue this campaign cycle he would have held the house.

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  7. I agree with Iapetus, the Republican messaging is pathetic. Most Republicans are terrible communicators and we are losing the argument by our silence, right at the time when we most need to be out there persuading.

    And why aren't the ballots in all these races being reviewed for illegal aliens voting? Why aren't we hammering on this and requiring spot checks? I'm disappointed in McSally for not pressing this, she gave up too easy. Which I guess sadly means she wouldn't have brought strength to the Senate.

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    1. Messaging is easy when the media is in your hip pocket. You really think the Dick From IL or Jerry Nadler are great communicators?

      And I do believe the ballots are being examined for all kinds of irregularities. Trick is knowing where to look. That means whistleblowers of all types.

      As for McSally, a couple of thoughts. I sized her up as part of the McCain machine and it looks like I'm right, sad to say. She didn't want to hurt the feelings of her friends across the aisle.

      Also, it may just be any chicanery by the Democrats was unnecessary. A lot of Conservatives didn't like her which may explain that big difference between her totals and Ducey's.

      YMMV

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  8. Dang, I thought the best four years were in the 70's, but I can't remember that decade

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  9. Let the liberal media keep playing the "who won" game. Time to start acting not talking, and prosecuting wrongdoers. Winning happens during governing. Govern.

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