All errors should be reported to DonSurber@gmail.com

Sunday, November 04, 2018

Republicans will surf that blue wave

Pundits argue among themselves on whether there will be a blue wave or a red wave on Tuesday.

The answer is both because the election is not national, just like 2016.

In that election, a plurality of the votes and a husband who was president got you a front-row seat on Inauguration Day to watch your opponent take the oath of office.

This year's election has Senate races in 33 states (two seats are up in both Minnesota and Mississippi). 26 of those 35 seats are held by Democrats or their surrogates.

Nate Silver's predictions may be awful, but his research is interesting. In the midterm elections stretching back to Reagan's first one, 114 opposition party senators have sought re-election and 110 have won. That is a 96% win rate.

They have averaged 28-point wins.

So even though Democrats have 26 seats to keep, they should lose no more than one incumbent senator.

That is small comfort to Joe Donnelly, Heidi Heitkamp, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, and Jon Tester -- all of whom are listed by Real Clear Politics as in the race of their life.

This is unusual.

Even in the post-9/11 midterm of 2002, Democrats lost only one of their 11 incumbent senators. Now they may lose five.

But all those other incumbent Democrats will go hog wild on Tuesday as they run up the score on longshot Republicans. Hawai'i's Democrat senator, Crazy Mazie Hirono, is up by 53 points.

Pocahontas is up by 25 points.

And so on.

And in California, Democrats will get every Senate vote because Dianne Feinstein's opponent is a Democrat under their two scoops for me, no scoops for you election law.

The blue wave is real. Democrats could get 10 million to 20 million more votes in Senate races than Republicans do.

But the red wave also is real. At a minimum, they will increase their Senate majority by one.

Ah, but the House. Logic would hold that a 10 million to 20 million lead in the Senate races would help down ballot.

I agree. I predict that Pocahontas will lead her tribe to win all the House races in Massachusetts.

For a net gain of squat. Democrats already hold all nine congressional seats in Massachusetts.

The key to understanding the House races is realizing that there are 17 states with no Senate races.

15 of them are in Trump country.

Six years ago, those same states did not have Senate races. And in that election, Democrats received a million votes more than Republicans in all 435 House races.

But Republicans won 234 House races and kept the House because the 1965 Voting Right Act requires racial gerrymandering, which herds many minority voters into electoral ghettos. That allowed Maxine Waters to win by 42 points, but it didn't help Democrats elsewhere in California.

The blue wave is real. The red wave is real. Democrats will get more votes but Republicans will keep the House and the Senate.

Vote and watch the results on Tuesday, and see if I am not right.

Republicans riding the blue wave? That's as preposterous as hearing "Pipeline" on the Lawrence Welk Show.

###

Please enjoy my books in paperback and on Kindle.

Trump the Press covers the nomination.

Trump the Establishment covers the election.

Fake News Follies of 2017 covers his first year as president.

For autographed copies, write me at DonSurber@gmail.com

14 comments:

  1. I think Ned Silver's analysis may be off here simply because times are different.

    The Demos didn't act like lunatics and pull dumb stunts when Reagan was running. You didn't have Blexit and WalkAway and women of all colors mad at the Demos over what happened to Kavanaugh.

    I really do think this makes a difference.

    ReplyDelete
  2. even if the dems win, they will lose.
    my fear is that republicans hold, or even worse increase, their majority in the house as well as the senate. this will drive the left over the edge and we will see 1968 riots on steroids in every major blue city, for months. this will take all credibility from the dnc and other leadership orgs, effecrtivly destroying the democratic party.
    if the dems win the house, they will pull out all the stops to impeach 45. they will also, purposefully, or inadvertently thru neglect, tank the economy. jobs will disappear, again, welfare will bloom again, and inflation will sap anything left of any kind of real economy. this will piss the middle class, and the working poor who had a taste of a better life during the first two trump years off extreamly. and those pissed off voters will destroy the democratic party in 2020 in an effort to get back to the way it was before they took over.
    either way, it's going to be a rough ride, so buckle up, and hang on.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nah, you're overwrought. The "riots" will fizzle quickly if they happen at all.

      Delete
    2. +1

      The Dems / MSM are now walking around in a state of disbelief.

      They are reminiscent of Dylan's 'Ballad of a Thin Man' -

      "Something's happening
      And you don't know what it is
      Do you, Mr. Jones"

      Delete
  3. No, if they take the house, they will spend the next two years acting like fools, holding hearings upon hearings while nothing else gets done because Trump will not sign anything that he doesn't want to. Result in two years, could be a super majority if the repubs don't mess it up

    ReplyDelete
  4. I like your attitude about this rip roaring political contest, between the Mighty Mental Midgets of the Left (aka Dem socialists, also aka Bolsheviks or Mensheviks) and the Constitution supporting People of this USA.

    Still, I'll be waiting until about 0600 11/7/2018 before hoisting the Red (GOP) Flag of Victory!

    ReplyDelete
  5. MAGA has everything.

    All else is, thus, left with blatherings.

    Republicans, being, historically, not quite MAGA, politicians as they be, at least have enough sense to know MAGA is what they've always longed to be.

    The democrats have, historically, been exploiters of anyone they can. Thus, they remain void of MAGA and render themselves insignificant to Reality. The democrats, by whatever label, are thumbsuckers, all. The rinos submit to these tantrum prone infants. MAGA gives them all a Swat and, if needed, a Schlonging, and offers sage advice to stop the nonsense. Those who disregard will be put in the corner to contemplate their options.

    Whatever else can be said, Reality will have it's way, the less hard one or the really hard one.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I hope and pray for a red tsunami that will destroy the evil Democrats once and for all. Abortion, open borders, racism, false accusation...they are evil.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Every voter in Arizona should watch this video. Pass it on.
    https://youtu.be/6eH6ZSLvsak

    Every voter in Florida should watch this video. Pass it on. https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1057804610595897344

    Every Texas voter needs to see this video. Pass it on.
    https://youtu.be/tJCG_JckSF8

    ReplyDelete
  8. An undercover video shows staffers on U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill’s campaign describing how Planned Parenthood sends money to her secretly so she will not look as pro-abortion to Missouri voters.
    A pro-abortion Democrat, McCaskill is considered one of the most vulnerable senators running for re-election in November, Townhall reports. After voting against U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation, she fell behind her opponent, pro-life Republican Josh Hawley, in the polls.
    The video, released by Project Veritas this week, shows how McCaskill’s campaign appears to be trying to appeal to moderate voters in the mid-western state by downplaying her radical pro-abortion stance.
    “It’s f——- beautiful” how Planned Parenthood indirectly supports McCaskill’s campaign, one staffer tells an undercover investigator.
    Get out and vote all RED for the November election. Urge all of your Republican, Conservative and other friends to do the same and urge them to urger others. For the sake of this country NEVER vote for a DemocRAT again, NEVER, the future of this country, you children and grandchildren depend upon it.
    https://youtu.be/9jKYLTGY764

    ReplyDelete
  9. Stop the caravan
    https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1058685478164144128

    ReplyDelete
  10. I agree, Don, and predict the Senate GOP gain will be 3 minimum.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I hope the Reps keep the House, but the US will survive the rancor and gridlock even if they don't.
    With Trump, with so much great news (Real), with so much Fake News (bad).


    Pick up the Senate. More conservative judges.

    Most important next thing is to stop the Universities from secretly discriminating against Reps.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Surf music - Pipeline - on Lawrence Welk! Fantastic. Now listening to 50+ Chantays / Ventures ...

    ReplyDelete