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Wednesday, November 07, 2018

How he Trumped the midterms

Incumbent opposition party senators are nearly invulnerable in midterms. Of the 114 who ran in the midterms from 1982 to 2014, only four lost. That's a 96% re-election rate.

President Trump knocked off four incumbent Democratic senators in a single midterm.

I will explain how Donald John Trump did it, but first let us jettison the groupthink by the dim minds in the punditry; they declared the rules of politics do not apply to him.



This comes a while after they declared he would lose the midterms because that was what the rules dictated.

In June, Christian Schneider is a columnist and blogger at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, harumphed, "Trumpism has taken over the Republican Party. So it seems the GOP needs a blue wave in the midterm elections to kick some sense back into them."

For three years, this has been the mantra of the Never Trumpers who were really Never Conservative.

In September, Albert R. Hunt of Bloomberg News wrote, "The momentum building toward a Democratic wave, small or sizable, is unlikely to fade. 'I’ve never seen a wave reverse or dissipate between midsummer and Election Day,' said Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report and a sage of U.S. elections. 'They have just remained constant or gotten bigger, like 1994 and 2006.'"

Never bet against Donald John Trump.

Yes, Democrats took the House back as they gained 34 seats. But that is a ripple compared to Republicans sweeping the House with a 63-seat win in Obama's first midterm.

And Republicans padded their lead in the Senate, adding three seats. Obama lost seven.

This is the first time a president gained in either house of Congress in a midterm since President Bush 43 in 2002, and that was aided by the aftermath of 9/11 and the pending Iraq War.

There was no doubt President Trump would win from the moment he entered the arena. He is a student of Sun Tzu, which means he never fights a battle he cannot win.

Past presidents have widely avoided involvement in midterms because they do not want to tarnish their image. Oh sure, they hit the campaign trail in the last week or so but they play it safe.

If President Trump wanted to play it safe, he would have stayed in Trump Tower in 2015.

He knew he had to increase his Republican majority in the Senate. The only way to do that was to battle for every seat possible.

President Trump also is a disciple of Dr. Norman Vincent Peale. The power of positive thinking and past success give him the confidence to take chances.

He also learns from his failures.

Last year, the Alabama special Senate race was a disaster. First, he campaigned for Luther Strange who lost in the primary. Then he campaigned for Judge Roy Moore who lost in the general election.

President Trump learned. He chalked up successes in the primaries. That should have tipped people.

He also plans very carefully. Never be fooled by the flim or the flam.

He is an extemporaneous but very disciplined speaker. He may not have a written script, but he knows what he is going to say. That people believe he makes it all up as he goes along is a sign that he is good at feigning spontaneity.

But the real secret to this midterm election was his work ethic. The late James Brown was the hardest working man in show biz. Donald Trump is the James Brown of politics.

Andrew Malcolm wrote, "At a slew of his rallies this fall, Trump, unlike standard pols, got up with no prompter and riffed for 60 to 70 minutes to a crowd that started lining up a day earlier. Some days, the 72-year-old president did three such mass events in different cities. Ostensibly, they are for state candidates. But they’re clearly the undercard."

A lifetime of 12-hour workdays, six days a week made that possible. President Trump has exhausted the reporters covering these rallies. These flaky twenty-somethings cannot keep up with a septuagenarian.

He also made the election a referendum on him, giving Republicans who stayed home in 2016 an opportunity to finally vote for him.

In Florida and Indiana, President Trump went head-to-head against Obama, whose schedule was as light as balsa. The net result was Republicans picked up two Senate seats, and kept the Florida governorship.

By the way, Nate Silver gave a 29% chance to Republican Mike Braun in Indiana and a 29% chance to Republican Rick Scott in Florida 29%. That meant there was only an 8% chance of both winning.

The polls were accurate, but they measured the wrong thing. President Trump's ability to get out the vote was the key.

He won because he worked hard. He took chances, did his homework, scraped his knees in Alabama, and applied those lessons this year. Never bet against such determination.

###

Please enjoy my books in paperback and on Kindle.

Trump the Press covers the nomination.

Trump the Establishment covers the election.

Fake News Follies of 2017 covers his first year as president.

For autographed copies, write me at DonSurber@gmail.com

24 comments:

  1. Quite a few of the losers were squishes who distanced themselves from Trump in some way.

    Getting rid of Paul Ryan and his ilk is a big plus.

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  2. Here comes Associate Justice Amy Comey Barrett!!

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    Replies
    1. yes
      now trump's judges can glide in
      and maybe fill two supreme court seats

      and trump still has executive order powers
      all is not lost

      still praying for my country in getting rid of the demons that plague our government and country

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  3. Very thankful the senate margin expanded, softening the power of Murkowski and Collins.

    Very disappointed in losing the house. We can blame Ryan for his obstruction as speaker, and a lot of bad egg republicans not running for re-election. They won’t be missed, but still hard to reconcile a Pelosi/Schiff/Waters led house.

    It is very Tough to accept losing with such good economic news and promises being kept.

    It is very disappointing that so many races were so close that shouldn’t have been. The Florida governor’s race. Veteran pilot McSally vs. the far far left Sinema. Cruz vs. O’Rourke the fake hispanic.

    Is the propagandistic media losing the ratings war but winning the election war?

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    Replies
    1. The Left is very good at "politics by other means", and the Right still refuses to punish them for that. The Right has not only allowed Big Tech to silence Conservative Media actively, they have also refused to protect alternatives like GAB. The number of illegal voters has probably skyrocketed. It ia a long war we are engaged in. https://empowertexans.com/state/illegal-immigrants-voting/

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    2. Face it. Half the people in this country are brain dead, mentally ill, stupid, and incapable of rational thought. Not to mention brain washed by the education system. Every year the number increases.

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    3. Feeling optimistic that the Dems will see their narrow victory yesterday as a mandate to go hard left in all types of legislative agenda decisions. Doubt Pelosi will be able to stand up to them. The result will be an epic fail on their part.

      We've seen this before. Trump can still out-work, out-maneuver and outrank them.

      I'm not as upset as I was. Now that I've had time to think about it, watching them fall flat on their faces may turn out to be pretty entertaining. Anything they pass in the House still has to go to the Senate, where McConnell can kill it, and to the White House for signature, where Trump can veto it.

      Get that pen filled, sir!

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    4. The brilliance of MAGA is seen in truly making lemonade out of lemons.

      The democrats have their lemmings.

      The House proposes, the Senate considers, then, if the House gets the gift of being still able to send anything to the Oval Office, the President gets to decide.

      Nothing from the democrat House will either get past the Senate or get past the President veto. Nothing.

      If it ain't MAGA, or close enough, it ain't happening.

      The replacement of feckless rinos with retarded democrats only benefits MAGA. Plenty of time to allow the democrats to shit all over themselves, thus exposing their innate nasty prior to 2020.

      The democrat shit slingers are gonna make a stinky mess of themselves, all over themselves and will, as poop prancing pinheads they are, revel in their stench, as MAGA Americans continue to do what we do: Make America Work.

      MAGA

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  4. It’s going to be a long two years, hearing the lunatic ravings of Pelosi et al. They need a age limit; 80 is far too old to be doing that job.

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    Replies
    1. I think we need a RAGE limit. It's getting old.

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    2. pelosi and maxine seem to be in early stages of dementia
      both babble and sound confused

      trump has the goods on these demons
      they will either go along with trump's proposals are go to jail

      we shall see

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    3. We've been hearing the babblings of Pelosi and Waters et al forever, anyway. Now that they're in the majority, I don't think we'll hear any more or less from them.

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  5. Overall, maybe we got as much as was available. But too many Americans voted for mobs, too few for jobs.
    JimNorCal

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    1. I'm a Vikings fan so I'm used to disappointment. That said, I'm feeling a little better this morning after reflecting on how important the Senate majority is. We will be continuing a Judicial shifting to the right which is huge. A great deal of resistance has been in the courts due to liberal judges with their nationwide rulings. Hopefully that will soon stop. We will soon control the Presidency, the Senate and the Judiciary. Dems control the House but can't really do much since they need approval from all of the Republican offices. I'm saddened that we won't be attacking the deficit like we would have with control of the budget but there's always 2020. That's not that far away. Campaigning for it will begin TODAY...

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    2. If Republicans held the house, they still wouldn't 'attack' the deficit. I've seen that movie way too many times! Unfortunately the deficit is something that will be ignored until it's too late! Not even Trump has the balls to mess with spending.

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  6. This will be kind of fun to watch this Trump-House thing play out. My money's on Trump making lemonade out of their lemons.

    Trump better get his thumbs limbered up though. He's going to be on Twitter a lot clearing up the MSM reporters' gaslighting and stonewalling on House news.

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    Replies
    1. Lemonade is not the only transformative product which MAGA will gleen from the democrat sour puss tears of the eternal complainers.

      An effective reaction to the puckered puke posse is to return their sour juices back into their glaring, scrunched up muggs, producing a volume of tears and bemoanings most pleasing to the fans of "right back at ya, ya dummy...".

      The fwke news gets to stay solvent, riding the MAGA train, perched reluctantly upon the cow catcher, all bunched up atop each other, ass to face to whatevers, screeching their blatherings with such fervant volume as to drown out the whistle blowing to announce another milestone which MAGA has achieved and surpassed.

      The mansion of miscreant mutts known as the dc swamp, being constructed of dried democrat, and rino, dookie, will turn to muck and sludge and, whilst the stench be obnoxious, will be washed away and returned to the earthly fertilizer that it is.

      MAGA

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  7. Side story to watch: Lame duck RINOs that can't find jobs in the lobbying industry pushing out the current crop of token Republicans in liberal media. If the Trucons were as smart as they think they are they would have waited until after the midterms to show everybody their "I'm with Her" and "#resist" tattoos. Now what's left of their bona fides are completely evaporated.

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  8. Would be nice if the lame duck Republican House would pass a bill taxing remittances to overseas. Even a one percent tax would bring in quite a bit. Pew Research says that in 2016 US remittances overseas totaled around $138,165,000,000.

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    1. As President Trump observed, petty, feckless, puffed up rinos have been, when the margin be only a few, repeatedly posturing, like cock teasing, just hit puberty, budding feminazis, and have contributed bigly to the wasted opportunities these first 2 years of MAGA.

      Both Senate & House rinos have been guilty of this tom and tina foolery.

      For all the choosing to retire rinos, so delightfully departing, good riddance to rotten apples. Even with democrat moldly cheese wedges taking their place, it's a process, this cleansing of the sewage of the dc swamp.

      Republican party politician procrastinations, prevarications and persnickitty pussy shit have led to this delay in the American nation realizing the benefits of full measure MAGA.

      The ship's captain, being steady in actual actions and determined in course thoughtfully plotted, guides the ship to desired destination. Aka, MAGA.

      The American Adventure continues.......

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  9. Don, are you counting AZ and TN as incumbents that Trump has knocked off? By my normal counting of such things, Trump helped to knock off three- Nelson (FL), McKaskill (MO), and Donnelly (IN). Tester is going to win his seat it appears to me.

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  10. Oh, I forgot Heitkamp in ND. So I see 4, and I think you might be counting Tester as gone given the time of your post.

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  11. The best of (Senate) times, the worst of (House) times.

    Little funding for the Wall -- or will there be a shutdown? Trump is likely to spend about as much as the Dems want, he likes spending too.

    There is no "small spending" party anymore -- but the cultural war and the border war are both more important. The USA needs the Dems to decide there is too much spending, but that won't happen with a Rep Pres. Deficits based on tax cuts are far less bad than deficits based on more pork.

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  12. Enthusiasm is close to a 90% function of physical energy.

    Thoroughly understanding the dynamics of your body metabolism and attentively adjusting your dietary intake accordingly, assists in not ecperiencing your body becoming unable to keep pace with your enthusiasms.

    The meat, blood and bone container limits the enthusiasm defined actions.

    Know thyself is the word most wise to ponder.

    ReplyDelete