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Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Where are the polls?

A generic congressional poll is a question that asks if the person being polled will vote Democrat or Republican in the congressional race.

It seems pertinent but it is like using a poll of the popular vote to determine who will win the presidency. In both instances, the pollster ignores the fact that these are not national elections but rather by the state and district elections.

Nevertheless, the question is asked. Polls included in the Real Clear Politics average, asked this question every day from January 5th on. The polls overlapped to cover all the days, even the Fourth of July.

There were 213 polls in this time. 211 showed Democrats winning. Two showed a tie. Even the Baltimore Orioles had a better record.

And then just like that the generic congressional polls stopped on October 4.

That was last Thursday. That was five days ago. No one seems to be asking that question. It must be irrelevant, right?

What happened on Thursday that stopped these generic congressional polls?

Was it the mercy rule?

Democrats had a 6.6-point lead in the average.

But there is no mercy in politics, so I ask again, what happened in the last five days to stop the steady onslaught of generic congressional polls that have plagued the nation for 10 months?

It seems odd to be measuring this on a daily basis for nine months and then a month before the election, everybody just abandons the question.

The sudden loss of interest in the generic congressional question is a puzzlement. What could it mean? What happened in the last five days that made this question pertinent for nine months? Actually, it is longer than that as the average began with a PPP poll that covered January 23 and 24, 2017.

I no longer am much of a fan of national polls. The 2016 presidential election reminded one and all that we don't have a national election but rather elections in 50 states and the District of Columbia.

In 2018, there are 435 congressional races and 35 Senate races in 33 states (reporters often overlook special races in Minnesota and Mississippi that are alongside their regularly scheduled races).

If the generic congressional polls return, bear that in mind.

Racial differences matter because Democratic President Lyndon Johnson's 1965 Voters Rights Act requires race-based districting that now herds most black and Hispanic voters, which explains why socialists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are shoo-ins to win.

A disproportionate number of Democratic votes are in these districts that are locks for Democrats, which spreads the remaining Democratic voters thin across contested districts.

Democrats ironically now complain about gerrymandering by the states. Had Congress stayed out of it, states would go about their business, Democrats may have stopped the placement of so many Democratic voters in election ghettos.

But here we are.

And now a month before the election, for some mysterious reason, we are adrift without generic congressional polls to tell us whether it is worth voting Republican.

Again, I ask, what happened last Thursday?

UPDATE: This afternoon CNN released a poll that gave Democrats a 13-point lead.

63% of women chose Democrats over Republicans.

Why bother voting, right?

###

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16 comments:

  1. The pollsters will return.

    Right now they are out interviewing people that went to kindergarten with Brett Kavanaugh. There is a rumor that he once returned a minute-and-a-half late from recess. The pollsters took a contract from a George Soros funded activist group that successfully sued the school for a list of not just his classmates, but a list of any other students that were on the playground that year. The pollsters were given handfuls of cash to find people that will swear out an affidavit that in fact Kavanaugh was a minute-and-a-half late getting back. With the teachers attention diverted, a 5 year-old boy pulled the hair of a 5 year-old girl, causing her to be traumatized for life.

    And Soros pays far better then the Nate Silver's of the world.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Apparently Micheal Moore has the Sadz.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/9mnv80/michael_moore_confirms_democrats_will_lose_big_in/?ref_source=embed&ref=share
    'scuse me while I play 'hearts and flowers'
    on my itsy bitsy violin..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh, that was the best video Mike Moron ever made! Loved it!

      Delete
  3. Michael Moore is an agitprop expert. It's interesting that he's concerned about Trump's political expertise: President Trump is motivating people! He's delivering what the people want! He's standing up to the Progressive bullies!

    ReplyDelete
  4. We're seeing Rs jump ahead in contested Senate races by 8 - 10 points.

    If the same is true for the House, it's gonna be a long 2 years for the Demos.

    PS It may be even longer if the polls saying blacks and Hispanic support for Trump is in the high 30s are true.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Don, quit asking about us Poles. We are trying to keep a low profile. We are sick of this happening every two years where the day after the election we are told about how wrong we were. We may learn slooooow, but we learn. And then forget. Sorry, five minute break is over, back to getting retrained.

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  6. There's a new CNN generic poll today covering 10/4-10/7. Democrats +13. But I agree they've slowed down quite a bit since late September when Ford and Kavanaugh testified.

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  7. CNN is one of the worst poling sources. What does Rasmussen say?

    -Scott

    ReplyDelete
  8. trump is making even m.moore look smart!!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Who trusts CNN? I imagine that they way over-sampled Democrat women to reach their fake data.

    They also claim Democrats leading or close in 209 races. Wait. They need to win 218, so their 13-point generic is even more in question.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Just like 2016 they are polling the same people over and over. I for one am never polled and there are hundreds of thousands of people out the just like me.

    ReplyDelete
  11. CNN polls only target extreme socialist democrats. Conservatives will not even talk to them. We have to sleep at night.

    ReplyDelete
  12. We hope the Liberals keep up their hate for our President Trump… it will solidify their Blue Wave in November, but it will be a blue wave of their tears as they cry all night from a loss at the polls the MSM promised they would win, again.

    How about we apply the Dem's new Rule of Law to the Hillary email crimes ? Still not too late to prosecute her...

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    ReplyDelete