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Saturday, October 20, 2018

The October surprise

Democrats had the Senate tied on September 25, according to Real Clear Politics.

The site said Democrats were poised to pick up Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee, while losing Missouri and North Dakota, for a net gain of one seat.

On October 3, Tennessee flipped back to Republicans.

On October 11, Nevada flipped back to Republicans.

On October 13, Arizona flipped back to Republicans.

On Thursday, the site said Republicans would gain a third state, Florida.

That would bring it to a 54-46 Republican Senate.

However, six states are considered tossups, so officially the site has it 50-44 Republican. At worst, Republicans would control the Senate thanks to Vice President Mike Pence's ability to break a tie.

But it could be a net gain of six seats for Republicans.

And that could grow if the four leaning Democrat races -- the Minnesota seat vacated by Al Franken, as well as New Jersey, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

That would be a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority for Republicans.

538 gives Republicans a Warren-Is-Indian Chance of that happening, meaning 0.1%.

We know what the October surprise was. The Democrats over-reached on Kavanaugh. Acme bombs always fail.

Now President Trump is thumping them with his message of "Jobs Not Mobs."

But just as quickly as Republican fortunes improved, so could they evaporate.

Vote.

Early.

You never know when a bus will hit you.

###

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17 comments:

  1. I voted straight GOP last Wednesday. I am praying every day that God leads others to do the same.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Same here! I'm in CA, so had an "opportunity" to choose the lesser evil between two Dems in 3 races, but chose not to vote for evil at all; whoever wins them is no one that I want in office anyway.

      My ticket was straight-up Republican, for every office that had one running. I'll never vote for a Democrat again!

      Don't let your state become one with a "top two" or "jungle" primary, or you may have to withold your vote like I did!

      Delete
    2. I've voted every election since 1980. NEVER EVER voted for a Democrat, Never Ever vote straight Republican, even if EVERY vote is for a Republican - Need to keep them understanding no "party" owns me....

      Delete
  2. "Once to every man and nation comes the moment to decide,
    In the strife of Truth with Falsehood, for the good or evil side;
    Some great Truth, some great decision, offering each the bloom or blight,
    Parts the goats upon the left hand, and the sheep upon the right,
    And the choice goes by forever, ‘twixt that darkness and that light."

    ReplyDelete
  3. IMHO the real October surprise is the migrant invasion force currently heading to the US thru Mexico from Central America. What better example do we need of the border security issue. The more the Lefty candidates say "abolish ICE" the more votes Republicans will get.

    Bucky

    ReplyDelete
  4. One week before the elections, Trump orders military troops to the border areas in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California.

    He then takes personal control of the troops. He gets into Air Force One, and he flies to Arizona. There is a major senatorial election going on in Arizona. The election is too close to call.

    Every news media outlet would have to focus on the flight of the President to Arizona. He would announce that he is taking command of the troops. He will justify this on the basis of the need to defend the borders of the country.

    From a political standpoint, what could Schumer and company do about this? Trump is the commander-in-chief. He has the constitutional authority to do this. The critics can say this is political grandstanding, which would be accurate, but that would have no effect. What would have effect is the message that this would send symbolically: Trump is going to maintain the borders of the country against the invasion of the caravan. It doesn't matter where the caravan is. It would be a symbolic statement, and it would carry enormous weight.

    The news media would be filled with stories about military troops, Trump's swagger, and all the rest of it. That would mobilize the Republican Party base. It would also trap Democrats who do not openly voice support of Trump's decision, which would probably be confined to the Senator from West Virginia. There is nothing that Democratic candidates could say that would get them out of the box.

    The elections will be decided in November on the basis of which political party gets its base in the polling booths. There is no question that there is no issue more powerful and mobilizing for Trump's base than securing the border with Mexico.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dude. Just say "No!" to crack.

      Delete
    2. Not the way he works. That would be a Jimmy Carter move. Micromanagement.

      Delete
    3. REVIEWING the troops would be a boss move, however.

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  5. Sorry Don, I disagree. Republicans should never vote 👂. Keep the bastards guessing how many votes they need to manufacture.

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  6. Release the fisa warrants now!

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  7. I think the sleeper races are in Michigan and Indiana. The Dems/media are hoping that the Honduran immigrants make it to the border in time. For some reason they think that a Trump confrontation at the border is the answer for their dismal chances in both houses. It'll backfire like the Kavanaugh debacle. Mexicans won't come out to support Hondurans and Blacks want to keep reaping the benefits of the new jobs market. I'm predicting 54 R's but it could be a clean sweep.

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  8. Who cares what RCP says?

    It just takes the phony polls and averages them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They were sure good at that 2 years ago.

      Delete
    2. Another way to look at it: they print wildly pro-Dem polls for months, the average them with semi realistic polls the last week of the race.
      JimNorCal

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  9. I've driven across that bridge from Guatemala to Mexico. Trust me, they're not "almost here". Soros better get some busses down there if they want to make it by election day.

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  10. I urge all Democrats and Lefty's to call the Venezuelan Embassy and Washington and ask for application for permanent residency. They can enjoy their left is Paradise immediately.

    ReplyDelete