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Wednesday, May 09, 2018

Trumplican Party rises

Following Tuesday's primary loss by Congressman Robert Pittenger of North Carolina, there are now 63 open seats in the House in November. Republicans hold 44 of them, Democrats 19.

Meanwhile, three of the eight Republicans up for re-election this year are leaving, and with John McCain preparing for his funeral, it is likely that there will four open Senate seats now held by Republicans.

Given that open seats are the most likely to flip to the other party, Republicans are worried, and should be.

But not necessarily for the reasons the experts give. If Republicans hold on to Congress -- as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich believes -- it will be a party more loyal to President Trump.

Gingrich made a strong case for Republican optimism.

"A lot has been made of Republican House retirements (43 at this time) but ironically, as a percentage, the Senate has a higher retirement rate among Republicans this election. Three out of eight (or 37.5 percent of) Republican senators in seats up for re-election are retiring. In fact, 88 of the 235 current GOP House members would have to retire to meet the Senate GOP percentage. At the same time, the huge number of vulnerable Senate Democrats (10) means they are also in worse shape than House Democrats (who have three leaders with a combined age of 233 years –-78-78-77)," he wrote.

Replacing incumbents with 44 Trump loyalists will hasten Trump's efforts to Make America Great Again.

Surely the departure of Senators Jeff Flake and McCain in favor of Trump supporters will serve the Republic well.

The country elected Trump president. Congress needs to get with the program already.


  1. Don ,you are just a whirling derbish with your stories today.


  2. With so many democrat held senate seats up for grabs and the implosion of liberalism, if the republicans can’t pick up 5 or more seats, than McConnell and Ryan have poisoned the well more than anyone can imagine.

    1. I think five, while do-able, is a bit optimistic. I think a net of three is the baseline number of pickups, with the three being WV, IN, and MT (with the R's holding all of their seats, including NV and TN). ND and MO, however, will be tough. I think POTUS-Trump actually likes Heitkamp and, in MO, McCaskill is a tough old bird with real political skills. She has probably done a better job of selling herself as independent of the Dem leadership -- regardless of whether it's true -- than any other Dem up this cycle, something Manchin, Donnelly and Tester wholly failed to do, which is a huge reason why her political skills should not be under-estimated.

    2. A lot spins on what goes the next few months.

      Trump is sending a rescission bill to congress to put the Demos on record. In a scant 4 months, another spending bill will be up and then the Demos will have to put up or shut up.

      Once again, a fight The Donald can win.

      If the Middle East goes the way of Korea (we're talking the last of the Axis of Evil as well as the last of the Axis of Wannabe), then another feather in The Donald's cap and maybe an oak leak cluster (or two) on his Nobel.

      Just as 2 years ago, we may be pleasantly surprised.

  3. SL -

    We're at least 50% fortunate .. . Ryan to be gone.

    Now if we could get Jowls "Cocaine" Chao - er . . . McConnell to get the hint . . .

  4. I'm a Deplorican.

    Spin Drift

  5. I've been looking very closely at past elections. I just don't see the Ds coming close in the House. They need to pick up 24 seats. They've done that only twice in the last 19 elections. In fact they've only picked up 9 or more 3 times in the last 19.

    I find this graph very instructive: