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Wednesday, April 04, 2018

Why Conrad Black thinks Republicans will hold the House

Billionaire newspaperman Conrad Black stands tallest among Trumpologists (sorry, Scott Adams) in part because Black knows Trump personally.

Black contends Republicans will keep Congress in November because of Donald Trump.

The president is draining the swamp, keeping his promises, and overseeing an economy recovering from nearly 30 years of presidents not named Reagan.

Ben Weingarten of Encounter Books interviewed Black, who spoke about the trumped-up charges against Trump.

Black said, "I don’t think the Democrats will win the House. I think what will happen is that the President will carefully assemble his health care reform that the Republican Party is pretty much agreed upon, and an immigration reform that it’s pretty much agreed upon, put those out very firmly to the voters, stand on his high economic growth and continuing excellent economic numbers, and order the release by the Justice Department, relatively close to the midterm elections, of everything to do with the collusion investigation, to reveal in its ghastly infirmity the absolute vacuity of that argument, the falsity, the malice and the defamatory destructiveness of the entire argument that he or anyone closely associated with him ever colluded with a foreign power to rig an American election.

"Just administer a bone-crushing defeat to the Democrats, and their echo chamber in the national media. And do it right… just coming into the midterm election campaign. And I think he will gain seats in both the House and the Senate."

In a column, Black was even more positive.

"Before we get to the first week in November, I think approximately the following events will occur. There will be a four-power agreement between the two Koreas, China, and the United States that the Korean peninsula will, as verified by believably rigorous inspection, be denuclearized and it will be agreed that the Peninsula will be reunified only by spontaneous consent between the two Koreas without outside influence. Kim Jong Un can claim this is a victory of legitimization, but the removal of the North Korean nuclear threat will be a clear victory for President Trump also," he wrote.

I concur. Let Un save face. A de-nuked Korea is worth it.

"Hysteria about trade wars will settle down, and it will become clear that the administration is negotiating toward trade arrangements that do not yield such lopsided deficits for the United States as do the present arrangements with China, Japan, and Mexico. Everyone will see that the Russian-collusion argument, which was the Holy Grail of the Democratic party and the press for 18 months, is a gigantic canard," Black also wrote.

If Republican gains transpire, both parties will get a comeuppance. With so many Republicans retiring, those seats held and others gained will most likely go to Trump supporters. They will fire Paul Ryan and replace him with Steve Scalise, whom Democrats already tried to assassinate.

And Democrats will learn the price one pays for failure in the game of regicicide.

We must send traitors such as John Brennan, Susan Rice, and Jim Comey to prison for corrupting our national security system to spy on the political opposition. Such punishment will improve the odds against someone else trying this.

They are traitors. Their diversion of security to their petty politics left us vulnerable to an attack.

My head still says, Republicans lose the House but never bet against Donald John Trump.


  1. No matter what Trump has accomplished or accomplishes between now and november, I'm not sanguine, simply because half the country is Democrat or allied with the Democrats.

    Half the country is stark raving crazy. Trump could heal the sick and cure the lame, and half the country would vote against him because he's Donald John Trump.

    There are no "moderate" Democrats who will put country before party. Or country before bruised ego.

    - Mark S.

    1. Mark,
      Only 43% vote democrat religiously. Trump pulled some union voters to his side in the election which carried the tide in several blue states. Those were the "moderate" democrat voters. Trump's economic and regulatory reforms combined with successful trade negotiations will cement those voters in the R column.

    2. Personally, I'd call it the "T" column, not the "R" column. Framing the issue this way makes it a bit clearer for me.

    3. I am as optimistic as you are but the ignorance of so many voters coupled with semocrat voting corruption scares me.

    4. Jim, I'd like to agree with you, but wonder how many union voters will be pulled back to (D) even though Trump has done a bunch of the heavy lifting to get them back in business. The unions in Pennsylvania didn't seem very thankful.

  2. If Trump can frame the issues before the election (as Black suggests), then this take does make sense. It might even hit home in America that Trump has to use the military to defend the border because Congress will not pass laws that protect the border.

  3. I love the optimism. It's a great way to start the day. But I don't believe Mr. Black is right.

    There are two big reasons why I think the Republicans lose the House. In order those reasons are: Paul. Ryan. Paul Ryan is hell-bent on screwing the working class for the financial benefit of his GOP establishment overlords. And the scaredy-cat House members will panic thinking that being Nancy Pelosi-lite will save their electoral skin.

    I am optimistic about holding the Senate because math and, as we know, the D's don't know math. But the House is gone. All the good deeds of POTUS-Trump are irrelevant in the face of an inside saboteur. Wish it were not true.

    1. Ryan says he's gone after this session.

      Whether he is or not, Trump keeps finding ways to hamstring him. Ryan has been neutered.

    2. The House is gone only if we sit back and refuse to campaign. Understand, this president is done and forced out if Democrats get the House. Mitch McConnell would not stop a removal vote, and Mike Pence could not win in 2020. Our side is acting as if the election has been decided. It hasn’t.

      Think about spending. Do we want the wall? A far left speaker would control spending legislation. The administration would be forced to move to the left. If we are conservative on fiscal issues, we need to stop thinking all of this is just the fault of Republicans. It isn’t.

      Grassroots campaigning swings elections, and it’s calling people, not just knocking on doors. We all can take an hour or two a week to do that.

  4. "We must send traitors such as John Brennan, Susan Rice, and Jim Comey to prison for corrupting our national security system to spy on the political opposition. Such punishment will improve the odds against someone else trying this."
    This is important because if there are no consequences we will have a whole government of "clintons" and "obamas" in the future doing even worse things. Those two should be held accountable too, but, I am afraid that is too much to expect.

  5. I agree with Conrad. A preference cascade is already happening, as seen by Trumps rising poll numbers, which are above Obama's at this point in the presidency. Millions have done their taxes and gotten an estimate on their taxes for next year (mine is $7500 less). The Democrats have doubled down on stupid by reflexively opposing anything by Trump including patriotism.

  6. If all the things Black says come true, no problem, but there are intangibles.

    Gun control and the Little Hogg. The current Children's Crusade (so reminiscent of 50 years ago) being pushed by the Left. What happens at the border.

    Trump is already 50% (maybe (probably) more). Like it or not, people are warming to him.

  7. "The president is draining the swamp (who? - other than his very own appointees, Scott Pruitt is next), keeping his promises (Mexico is going to pay for the Wall; I will appoint a special prosecutor [for Hillary] on my first day in office), and overseeing an economy recovering from nearly 30 years of presidents not named Reagan (How far did the Dow plunge between Reagan's last day and Trump's first day in office?)."

    The Senate may flip but I don't see the House flipping (although W.Va. will pick up one D in Congress - Ojeda). No matter what, there will be razor thin margins which means two more years of major butt hurt (and factually inaccurate) tweets and blog posts. Could be worse if Hillary was prez.

    1. Ojeda? Seriously? You think the Southern Coalfields are going to turn on Trump? Really? Oh my, dear.
      Well, that is why we hold elections, I suppose.

    2. Yep - the darling of the whole teacher strike drama with a distinguished military career (no heel spur deferments) has all the name recognition he needs. Can you even name his potential R opponents without Googling their names. Didn't think so.

      As for Trump and the southern coalfields .... the miners are still waiting for “Get ready because you’re going to be working your asses off” to unfold and there is no Hillary boogeyman to push Ojeda off his high ground. Take the blinders off Surber, Trump no different than the rest when it comes to promising West Virginia what it wants to hear.

    3. "The president is draining the swamp (who? - other than his very own appointees..."

      Sally Yates- Fired
      James Comey- Fired
      James Baker- Demoted
      Andrew McCabe- Demoted, then fired
      Peter Strzok- Demoted
      Lisa Page- Quit
      James Rybicki- Quit
      Michael Kortan- "Resigned"...

      And that's just some, from just the FBI, so far. I was going to bludgeon you with a comprehensive list, including all the senators and representatives who have suddenly decided not to seek re-election, but their are are just so many that the research involved in compiling such a list would be a full-time job. The point is made, regardless. So step up your game, troll. Making easily refutable claims is noob trolling.

    4. the market is rallying now on "trade war" news after a 400 pt drop. Maybe the Drone sold short again, bitter

    5. A partial list of the (former) best and brightest of Trump flunkees:
      Sally Yates
      Michael Flynn
      Katie Walsh
      K.T. McFarland
      Angella Reid
      Mike Dubke
      Walter Shaub
      Mark Corallo
      Ezra Cohen-Watnick
      Sean Spicer
      Michael Short
      Reince Priebus
      Anthony Scaramucci
      Steve Bannon
      Carl Icahn
      Sebastian Gorka
      Tom Price
      Dina Powell
      Omarosa Manigault
      Rick Dearborn
      Rob Porter
      David Sorensen
      Rachel Brand
      Josh Raffel”
      Hope Hicks
      Gary Cohn
      Rex Tillerson
      Steve Goldstein
      John McEntee
      James Schwab
      H.R. McMaster
      David Shulkin
      Vanessa Trump

    6. Okay, so I guess you don't have a real job. Or maybe this is your job. If so, you're in danger of being fired for incompetence. You've failed to make any point other than that there's a lot of turnover in the Trump administration, and that's no surprise. Also, in what delusional episode did you conclude that Sally Yates was a Trump "flunky?" (Fixed the spelling for you.) She was in on the failed treasonous plot to unseat him. I told you to step it up. You didn't.


  9. A reunified Korea is not a good idea. To the Commies, 'reunification' means taking over the other half. Look at what happened with Germany.

  10. O who duh? Never heard of him.