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Thursday, January 18, 2018

The poll that should scare Democrats

As the week began, Mike Allen of Axios had it all figured out. Democrats will retake the House, elect Nancy Pelosi as speaker, and impeach President Trump. Yay!

From Allen at Axios:
Trump's day of reckoning ... The one thing that could dramatically diminish President Trump’s chances of avoiding impeachment and chalking up legislative wins is Democrats winning the House.
And, thanks to series of recent developments, Trump knows this no longer just seems plausible, but probable.
  1. Hill sources tell us that a House Democratic takeover is now likely.
  2. One strategist close to Republican leaders believes that a loss of the House is "baked in," and said top Republicans don't see a way to avoid it.
  3. It would take a flip of 24 seats for Dems to take over. The average loss for the president's party in his first midterm is about 32 seats, and we're hearing forecasts of 40+ losses.

That's a great plan.


Except someone forgot to tell voters.

The New York Times reported that contrary to all the media's wishful thinking and attempts to sabotage the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, voters like those $1,000 bonuses and half-trillion in new investments (including $350 billion from Apple) the act has wrought.

From the New York Times:
Americans are warming to the Republican tax law, and becoming more confident in the economy as a whole. They just aren’t sure that President Trump deserves much credit.
The tax overhaul that Mr. Trump signed into law just before Christmas remains relatively unpopular and highly polarizing, according to a new poll conducted for The New York Times by SurveyMonkey. But support for the law has grown significantly over the past month, and more Americans believe that they will receive a tax cut. Forty-six percent of Americans strongly or somewhat approved of the law in early January, up from 37 percent when the bill was nearing passage in December.
Since the Republican tax plan became law last month, public opinion of it has improved and more people are expecting a tax cut this year.
At the same time, falling unemployment, accelerating economic growth and a surging stock market have made Americans increasingly positive about both their own finances and the overall economy. That could be good news for Republicans hoping to overcome Mr. Trump’s unpopularity in the midterm elections.

Trump has taken more than a year of media lies, libels, and slanders, and turned around the Marxist economy he inherited from Obama.

Things are going so well thanks to Trump that the New York Times is making money.

I hope Democrats keep fishing for that impeachment.

It's right there next to the urinating hookers and the 12 empty Diet Coke cans every day.

Bobby Mueller will fetch it for ya.


Please enjoy my two books about the press and how it missed the rise of Donald Trump.

The first was "Trump the Press," which covered his nomination.

The second was "Trump the Establishment," which covered his election.

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As always, Make America Great Again.


  1. Mmmmm..okay. Meanwhile while the GOP controls Congress the government is going to shut down to pay for a wall we were promised Mexico was going to pay for..."believe me". The punchline is John Kelly confessing that Trump was not "fully informed" when promising to build a wall. Now that's an understatement.

    1. Kristol...Is that you again?

    2. Good bust, Russell! Hahahaha...

    3. you mean a politician is full of shit sometimes? Color me shocked.....'like your plan keep your plan....' remember that one? oh right, it's ok when YOUR side does it.

    4. LOL

      The left can be explained by the old adage:

      If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything.

      - Ken

    5. No, the government is going to shut down because the Democrats intend to hold the country for ransom if they don't get their way.

      It's not about the wall, it's about stuffing ballot boxes.

    6. So, it's sort of Trump's "I'm going to shut down Gitmo in the first 100 days" moment is what you're saying...

      But, I get it, I'd change the subject too if I was staring at a booming economy my team had absolutely nothing to do with.

    7. Well except its easier to close down a small facility rather than build a few hundred miles of a wall in a 100 days..details, details

      I find all this talk about the Obama economy hilarious. Though it is slowly dying down.

      Look if you have to give the previous administration credit for anything there a few metrics

      1. Did the administration anticipate this growth and if so what were the reasons for it? Obama thought 2% was the new normal and said that "those jobs arent coming back"

      2. The prevailing economic mood during the Obama administration. It was great to be a tech or renewable energy or a charlatan like Elon Musk during the Obama era. As all of these got special exemptions and subsidies. But the average business owner burned by excessive regulations not to mention Obama encouraged his minions to sue bakers for a freak show I mean gay wedding due to refusal of service does not create a favorable business atmosphere.

      3. The administration cultur and attitude towards entrepreneurship:Bracky and Moochelle both considered government work to be noble and business to be somewhat beneath polite society like typical noblesse oblige. And rapidly expanded government beureucracy and strenthened unions thereby making companies flee to right to work states.

      4. Effect of local state policies: A good deal of credit should go to the Republican governers of states like Florida and Michigan where corrupt unions were effectively neutered when collective bargaining(beloved by Obama) was abolished.

      4. What was happening the latter part of the administration:Obama spent most of his second term as especially since 2014 Congressional walloping a lame duck not doing too much. The Republican House and Senate flawed as they were did the adults work. While little Barry boy went golfing.

      Indeed by spending his time golfing, Obama avoided getting his dirty SEIU hands on the economy and let it thrive. For that I suppose he deserves credit.

      If that is your idea of the "Obama economy" you may have it LOL

      One thing I do think conservatives are disingenous about is cheering the stock market.
      They were meh when it was rising during Obama years but are cheering it now.
      The market is so perverted with misinformation, distortion , disconnect with mainstreeet and easy money that it is really no longer an accurate barometer of the economy. Hoping it will see a considerable correction though hopefully not before January 2021.


    8. But, I get it, I'd change the subject too if I was staring at a booming economy my team had absolutely nothing to do with."

      Forgot to mention: If you want to have a honest conversation about how Obama is responsible for the economy and respond to my points I am here but if you insist on using the word "absolutely" then we have nothing further to discuss as I dont take fanboys seriously.
      There are no absolutes of an economy in transition. I am sure there were some good things about Obama's economy(though I strain to think of any) you are welcome to point them out.

    9. Also expanding on 3#:

      How can I forget the infamouse "you didnt build that" or then Senator Obama on his 6 months in the private sector "it was like enemy territory"

      Yeah you want us to believe that THIS guy is responsible for the booming economy as opposed to someone who built thriving businesses and is practically an ad for free market capitalism over the last 40 years?

    10. YSV. Slow down a little. I was pointing out the hypocrisy of leftists crowing about the wall when Obama campaigned on closing down Gitmo in his first 100 days in office, and basically all we ever heard after that is crickets chirping.

      And I'm not sure how you could have possibly misinterpreted my claiming this Obama's economy: if he would have ever done anything positive with the economy it would have been purely by accident. His raging pessimism about jobs and growth kept both at minimum. Guess he's never heard of consumer confidence, shocker.

      I will pick on one point - the stock market. I was never impressed with the market under Obama because the American taxpayer was dumping $33 Billion a month into quantitative easing to spur all of that artificial growth - Trump's growth has been on pure optimism and confidence.

  2. NYT is making money? They should at least thank Drudge for the clickthroughs.

    Speaking of polls, yesterday I saw that two distinctly different polls showed the same thing...SurveyMonkey (bogus web free for all) and CBS (paid agenda poll). The dhimms have a Black voter problem. Red sentiment doubled in that group in a year. If it accelerates later in the year because of the DACA hostage/pandering scenario we're in for a Dhimm Hiroshima.

  3. The polls are always correct. Hillary won just like predicted. The DOJ OIG has nothing on anyone. Right? This is an Barry Obama economy. Correct? Maybe you should try to get something other than a Soros minimum wage paying job trolling in this ripping and roaring economy. I know, I know. Too much work.

  4. November is a ways away, but I have just one piece of advice for the R's: Run with Mr. T, or die. If all proceeds as I have foreseen (hat tip Prof Glenn), 2018 is gonna be the greatest economic boom since Ronaldus. Just say, I support President Trump wholeheartedly and will not do anything to derail The Train, while my opponent etc etc. Gillespie in VA didn't do that. I don't know what happened in WI, except to say it was a STATE Senate seat, not a national one. Complacency, maybe. Which is something we need to keep guarding against, cause these Leftie bastards will never give up.

    1. You have just put your finger on why the MSM makes heroes of the Jeff Flake's and John McCain's, and pounds endlessly Congressional Trump supporters.

      - Ken

    2. I disagreed with Jeff Flake but respected him atleast before. But seriously Trump=Stalin??!!, WTF is this shit?

  5. I know what the conventional media wisdom was in late 2016. It didn't involve trump living in the WH. Thus, when I hear the media tell me the next election is already over, call me skeptical at best. If people like the tax cut and generally like the direction of the economy, I hate to tell you lefties, but the party in power generally reaps the reward.

  6. Trump does all this AFTER spending 17 hours watching the Gorilla Channel! Dems! Ain't got a CHANCE!!

    1. Harambe died so Kek may live. All hail Harambe

    2. O.M.G! Don't you realize how triggering that comment is to Fakebook, Twatter and SpewTube? They'd ban you in an instant for that!

      It's a good thing that the atmosphere here at Surber's is a lot more wholesome, and where a good laugh is OK, as that's one of the funniest comments I've read in a while, by Kek! LOL!

  7. Since 1974, change in House composition in midterm elections has been highly variable, with the median transfer of seats being about 15. There aren't any obtrusive triggers which would induce a large change in seats. There usually are when you have such losses. The one election where you did have a large shift without an economic implosion or major scandal was that of 1994.

  8. I wish I shared your optimism. The R's are losing too many special elections they should win. The Country Club/Bush wing of the GOP would vote for a Bernie Sanders leftist Dem before they would vote for a Trump supporter. And a Country Club/Bushie Republican is only slightly better than a Bernie Sanders leftist Dem when it comes to supporting the Trump agenda. I think the GOP is too divided and the Dems too united for this to turn out well for the good side.

    Of course, I thought Trump was doomed all through Election Night up until they called Florida and North Carolina for him. So what do I know?

    1. Well, H W already came out and stated he voted for the vagina. Nothing to see here, move along.

  9. The Impeachment of Bill Clinton should be a cautionary tale for Democrats. It did not end well for the GOP and Democrats seem determined to repeat their mistake.

  10. Tiny Typo: Ptresident Trump, sort of close to Pterodactyl --

    Flying dinosaur, maybe got feathers. I fear the power of media and the negatives against Trump, but his results are great, combining both unearned and earned.

  11. The fact that people getting to keep more of the money they make is "unpopular and highly polarizing" tells you everything about you know about how miserable some of the people in this country are, and that maybe if more of them were chipping in to help keep the train rolling they wouldn't be so miserable about it. Thanks, democrats, for turning this country into a melting pot of people willing to sit on their asses and do absolutely nothing, with absolutely no regrets.

  12. It's amazing what someone elected to office can get done in DC when they don't spend all their time fretting over doing something that will get them uninvited to Muffy McElitist's holiday party.