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Tuesday, January 02, 2018

How we know Trump understands Iran

The world got safer over the holiday weekend as the final two legs of the Axis of Evil appear to be buckling.

In Iran, people are taking to the streets to get new leadership.

In North Korea, the leader is trying to talk peace and an end to the Korean War after 64-plus years of a cease-fire.

How do we know Trump is getting it right?

Because the experts are saying he is getting it wrong.

Ariane Tabatabai wrote in the Atlantic:
The president’s tweets suggest he barely understands the country he’s repeatedly demonized. This is troublesome given how much influence he has on what happens next. The Trump administration has toughened America’s stance on Iran. Former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn put Tehran “on notice” during his brief tenure in the early days of the administration. And administration officials haven’t shied away from flirting with regime change as a tool of U.S. policy toward Iran, with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson admitting to viewing the support of “elements” within the country seeking a “peaceful” transition of power as an option.
But far from empowering the Iranian people, the Trump administration’s response to the protests serves to undermine their efforts. In 2009, upon request from the U.S. government, Twitter delayed a temporary shutdown to allow Iranians to use the platform for organization and communication. Today, the Trump administration should similarly work with social media platforms and media outlets to facilitate the flow of communication into and out of the country.
While, in principle, the protests can spark a more large-scale movement and deep change, they aren’t likely to do so. The appetite for fundamental power transition is simply lacking in Iran given the lack of viable alternatives and the fizzling out of the Arab Spring. Already in 2009, the protesters weren’t calling for regime change but reform. Today, unlike the Green Movement, the protesters aren’t organized and cohesive. And while earlier protesters had leaders to rally around and clear objectives to pursue, today’s protesters have neither.
She contends that the Iranians do not want regime change.


So they are just on the streets risking their lives and detention just to tweet, and by golly Obama stood for their right to tweet. Trump just doesn't understand the world.

Meanwhile, Fox News reported:
A leaked report provided to Fox News shows how Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met with political leaders and heads of the country's security forces to discuss how to tamp down on the deadly nationwide protests.
The report covered several meetings up to December 31 and was provided to the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) from what it said were high level sources from within the regime. 
The meeting notes, which have been translated into English from Farsi, said the unrest has hurt every sector of the country's economy and “threatens the regime’s security. The first step, therefore, is to find a way out of this situation.”
The report added, “Religious leaders and the leadership must come to the scene as soon as possible and prevent the situation (from) deteriorating further.” It continued, “God help us, this is a very complex situation and is different from previous occasions.”
They aren't calling for regime change? Someone forgot to tell the regime.

Tabatabai is a visiting assistant professor of Security Studies at the Georgetown Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.

Her Ph.D is in war studies, and her master's is in international peace and security, both from the Department of War Studies, King’s College London.

"Her work has appeared in Foreign Policy, The Financial Times, The Boston Globe, The National Interest, Haaretz, etc. She is a frequent media commentator on nuclear issues, arms control, and regional security in the Middle East in English, French, and Persian, on such outlets as NPR, the BBC, BBC Persian, Al-Jazeera, and France24," she says.

She's an expert.

Forty years ago, the experts said Khomeini was just some religious fruitcake in Paris who posed no threat to the Shah of Iran, who sat on the Peacock Throne that his family held for "2,500 years." There was even a party for the 2,500th anniversary of the Peacock throne.

Actually, it was the 25th anniversary. The CIA installed him in 1953. More experts.

Trump has taken the back seat in Persia while pushing for resolution in Korea.

My observation is Japan and South Korea want the Korean War resolved already. North Korea is the Randy Quaid of nations, and with nukes the headache could be fatal.

Trump is pushing the Rocket Man to the bargaining table. Chairman Xi pretty much has to do what President Trump says in order to keep the U.S.-China trade deal going.

In Iran, the Saudis seem to be getting the popular uprising going.

Reading her other works, I discovered Tabatabai was cool with giving the Iran regime $1.7 billion, but she now opposes Trump's tweeting.

Common sense is in short supply in academia.


Please enjoy my two books about the press and how it missed the rise of Donald Trump.

The first was "Trump the Press," which covered his nomination.

The second was "Trump the Establishment," which covered his election.

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  1. Of course there is no leadership among the protestors, the regime killed them all with Obambi's consent.
    "the Trump administration should similarly work with social media platforms and media outlets to facilitate the flow of communication into and out of the country.".
    Social media and media outlets are on the side of the terrorists and the anti American regime

  2. The NYT has already attacked the protests. Praise for a good Stalinist murderer somewhere is always preferable to any support for a domestic political opponent.
    As for experts, Krauthammer bitterly criticized Obama for his failure to support previous protests in Iran. His failure led to thousands of prsion basement deaths, unmentioned so he could sell out for the nuke deal. Will the Kraut leave his fortified NT bunker now that his 99B Trump hating master holds the key? I wonder.

  3. There isn't much coming out of Iran right now. The best single source I have found is Thomas Wictor on Twitter. He has been posting some of the few items coming from Iran and has some interesting analyses. His take: Regime Change by the Iranian people with help from the elite troops of the Gulf Cooperation Council. - Elric

    1. There isn't much coming out of Iran right now? Really?
      I wonder if it has anything to do with the regime shutting down the internet?

    2. Yes, that is one reason. However, there are several alternate sources of information that have been helpfully provided by presently unknown (clandestine) actors that are able to go around the Iranian government's attempts to impose silence. - Elric

  4. "Common sense is in short supply in academia."
    That's because it's a career-killer in academia.

  5. The leaders of the American Democrat Party have no interest in seeing an end to the ayatollahs in Iran. Obama made the nuclear deal, gave them billions of dollars, and now the country is the regional terrorist power he always envisaged. And, by God, Trump better not try to change things.

  6. Libs are just jealous that the Iranian regime can shut down the Internet to shut up its opponents. If only BO had had that ability Trump would not be Prez.