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Tuesday, November 07, 2017

Virginia prediction

My prediction for today's gubernatorial race in Virginia is that either Republican Ed Gillespie or Democrat Ralph Northam will win -- and the media will declare the victory as a defeat of President Trump.

If Northam wins it will be the second consecutive Democratic governor in a state that has gone Democratic in the last three presidential races.

Nevertheless, I suspect the media will portray his winning as a rebuke of everything Donald Trump and his deplorable supporters stand for.

Meanwhile, if Gillespie wins, the media will portray him as a Washington insider who pretended to adopt Trumpism just to fool the rubes.

This race is not a harbinger of 2018 but a reflection on 2016. That presidential race was an ideas election, not the personality clashes that the press reported -- which was why the press missed the outcome on Election Night.

Even a casual observer would have noticed the gulf between the hippie girl's vision of One World Government and the frat boy's view of America standing on her own.

But the American press is not very bright.

And they are missing this election as well.

However, the politicians are smart enough to do the arithmetic. If Trumpism plus help from Vice President Mike Pence leads to victory in Virginia, look for more of it next year. Democrats have to defend 25 Senate seats, Republicans but eight.

Among those seats Democrats hold are seats in Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Trump took all 10 of those states.

And guys like Joe Manchin are too stupid to support President Trump on the Obamacare repeal or tax cuts. Perhaps they think they can charm -- con - their way to another term.

Or maybe their moneyed masters would rather have them lose in 2018 than throw Trump a bone.

Either way, the Virginia race will be reported as a defeat for Trump.


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  1. Turnout. Who is going to turnout in an off off year statewide election? How Northam's LaRaza commercial affects turnout will also be important.

  2. Turnout can also be affected by the weather. And again, don't overlook the tens of thousands of convicted felons that had their voting rights restored in Virginia. That was done for a reason. It could easily tip a low-turnout election. - Elric

    1. Well, Elric, weather today up here in the EP is cold (40s, yesterday was 70s), grey, rainy, and just generally shitty. Got the fire started around 10 AM. The pwoblum is, as son Chris used to say, those bastards in NoVA will still vote - just pop outta their climate-controlled Benzes for a few minutes. Hey, in the end, who cares? It'll either be bad, or worse. Big D's point about next year's races is the salient one.

  3. The conventional political wisdom used to be that "all politics are local". That was before the results of off year state elections could be used by the LibDem propaganda arm either to boost the LibDem or smear the Republican nationally.

  4. I think they'll hold out in Northern Virginia to determine how many votes they need to pull out of the trunk of someone's car in order for Northam to win. With all the wealth and government dependency (related) concentrated there, it's difficult for the beautiful rural conservative parts of VA to have a voice. Still I hold out hope for Gillespie. And while he has embraced Trump's agenda to mine Trump's voters, I still think he is an establishment tool. If he does win, the media will claim a victory of the RNC establishment vs. Trump.

  5. Poor Hillary. She worked sooo hard to help The Donald win the election ... hey, you think it's easy to take a dive like that for weeks on end ... and she didn't even get a lousy T-shirt.

    And now the DNC rats are deserting the sinking schlub.

    Where's the justice, man?

  6. I dunno who's gonna win, but you are right about the LSM reaction either way, Don.

  7. Right on Don. They media will even claim that a President Trump fled to Asia so as not to take responsibility for Virginia’s result.

  8. Don, your prediction reminds me a little of the one that psychic Jeanne Dixon gave when asked if Nixon would be re-elected:
    "Yes. he will...unless he makes too many mistakes!"

  9. You win some, you lose some...

  10. Of course they're spinning it that way but we knew neither Republican candidate would win. In Virginia, like Illinois, Minnesota, New York, etc. The rest of the state is drowned out by one city. In Virginia the Repubocrat unipartei swamp dwellers plus their Obamadreamer servants and paroled felons were going to make damned sure Virginia stayed bleu. In New Jersey the massive influx of "poor Muslim refugees", central American Obamadreamers and black race warriors combined with the fact that Christie Cream has left a bad taste in everyone's mouths ensured Jersey returned to the Demonrat fold.

    I guess this means only one thing. Another wave of Virginia and New Jersey license plates on the freeways of Texas. Right now about a third of the cars in my apartment complex are sporting New York, Minnesota, Illinois, Connecticut, California,and (oddly enough) Oregon license plates.