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Sunday, October 22, 2017

DC election guru prepares to get 2018 wrong, too

From the Cook Report, which Washington political insiders consider the gold standard of election forecasting, comes this report.
Senate: Republicans’ 2018 Prospects Erode

That's good news. I'll explain later.

From the Cook Report:
President Trump gets most of the credit for the growing schism in the party as his constant criticism of the GOP congressional leadership, particularly Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, has succeeded in driving a wedge between congressional Republicans (read: the establishment) and Trump Republicans. The realities of getting any major legislation through a narrowly divided Senate notwithstanding, Trump has successfully sold the message to his base that the GOP-controlled Senate is responsible for the failure of his legislative agenda. The result is that Trump voters are angrier now than they were when they voted for Trump almost a year ago, but instead of being angry at Hillary Clinton or Democrats, they are now turning their rage on the establishment, and anyone who can be associated with it.
If Trump has widened the schism, then former aide Steve Bannon has poured gasoline in it and struck a match. Using Roy Moore’s victory over appointed U.S. Sen. Luther Strange in the GOP run-off in the special election in Alabama as a springboard, Bannon has declared war on every Republican Senate incumbent up in 2018, promising to recruit primary challenges against them (except Ted Cruz). According to those familiar with Bannon’s thinking, he believes that the pursuit of a nationalistic policy agenda can succeed and grow the party, but achieving that requires “suffocating” the GOP establishment. And, he appears not to consider – or not care – about the consequences, not the least of which is actually winning general elections and maintaining, if not growing, the GOP majority.
Whether Bannon’s assumption is correct is up for debate. Successfully suffocating the establishment may well create the “new” Republican Party he envisions. It is equally possible that the party that once aspired to be an inclusive “big tent” could become a small yurt.
Speaking of small yurts, the Democrats are at a 90-year low in offices held at the state and local levels.

The argument is never mind that nothing is being done in DC as the Washington senators refuse to cooperate with President Trump.

Shut up and be nice Republican voters, or Chuck Schumer will be the Senate leader and then Obamacare will never be repealed, and there will be no tax reform.

Now then, let us recall last year when Cook told us on Election Eve Hillary would win by 18 to 110 Electoral College votes.

Instead of losing the next day, Trump schlonged her by 77 Electoral College votes.

There was this report last October 25:
Cook Political Report Predicts Dems Will Win Up To Seven Senate Seats
The Cook Political Report reported Tuesday morning that Democrats will take back their majority and win five to seven Senate seats in November.
Cook Political Report’s Senate analyst Jennifer Duffy wrote that it looks like Republicans have finally reached the point where they can no longer simply run their own races. They are being drowned out by their presidential nominee Donald Trump.
For the record: In every single state Trump carried that had a Senate race, the Republican won. That was 22 seats.

Every state Clinton won that had a Senate race, the Democrat won. That was 12 seats.

No Donald Trump, no Senate majority.

And no, Low Energy Jeb would not have defeated her. It would be 1992 all over again.

This is disinformation. This is meant to discourage Republicans from having actual primaries where they decide which candidate best represents them.

We are more than a year away from the election. The Cook Report's final predictions will not be Armageddon for the Republican Senate.

In West Virginia, I am going with the Bannon candidate, Patrick Morrisey.

He's the best chance we have of electing a real Republican.


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  1. The Swamp Critters are still thinking in partisan terms. They figure anything bad for Republicans is good for Democrats. Wrong. The failure of the Republicans in congress just means more primary challengers, and that's exactly what we need.

  2. Cook is correct when he says Trump voters are angrier now than they were when we elected President Trump (at the Republican leadership that is not leading the ship).

    1. More and more are realizing the Republican leadership can't do Anything because the Lobbyist Loot would stop flowing into their "retirement accounts".

  3. Morrissey it is, Big D. I won't cancel out your vote in the primary! Now to get to work on my wife and mom in law next door. As far as the general? Ha. Ha ha. HAHAHA.

  4. One of the areas where the GOP can be hurt isn't McConnell as Senate leader (that most of GOP voters don't want), but could be McConnell campaigning against GOP legislative nominees (like all the money McConnell sent to Alabama to fight the base). McConnell lost in Alabama and it is likely the GOP candidate will still beat the Democrat, but if it isn't by the normal GOP margin, I'd be worried about McConnell undermining a lot of GOP candidates in 2018.

  5. The photo: The phrase, "Fat, Dumb, and Happy" came IMMEDIATELY to mind.

    "The result is that Trump voters are angrier now than they were when they voted for Trump almost a year ago, but instead of being angry at Hillary Clinton or Democrats, they are now turning their rage on the establishment, and anyone who can be associated with it." Well, who dumped on the Tea Parties?

    The Cook report: I see it as the "Cooked" Report.

  6. Count me in as one of those angry Republicans who is more P.O'd at the "Republican't" party than at the idiot Dems.

    McConnell has done a few things that are to his credit; he's been missing in action for a lot more of the time. What's he doing? Plotting!

    He's the Bergdahl of our party: too often fraternizing with the enemy and expecting to reap rewards for doing so!

    Many of us have also become aware that the actual two parties in Washington are: Trump Party vs. Uniparty.

    The whole "R vs. D" is Kabuki theater, it ain't real. It's just an act, to sucker us rubes into voting for one of the two heads of the same damn monster!

    I won't be sending one thin dime to the so-called Republican party, or the Senate Republicans. Any donations I make will be directly to Donald J. Trump!

    Same goes for voting, I won't be casting a ballot to any candidate or incumbent supported by the Establishment Uniparty, it'll be to the Trump Party candidates only!

  7. I voted *against* Hillary and the Democrats as much as I vote *for* Republicans. I voted, however, more for Trump because of what he proposed or promised than because he was a Republican.
    Republicans have disappointed me for a long time.
    I do hope that Trump's election and the next few years result in a realignment of the Republican Party without what's now the GOPe.