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Saturday, May 06, 2017

Trump more trusted than the polls

When the press rags on President Trump's popularity, remember one thing: Trump is doing better than they are.

And he is also more trusted than the polls the press cites.

From Rasmussen:
Just 26% of Likely U.S. Voters say they trust most political polls. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 55% do not trust most political polls. Nineteen percent (19%) are undecided.
Thirty-seven percent (37%) rate the current polling on political issues and events as worse than it has been in the past. Only 11% say polling is better now. Forty-six percent (46%) think it’s about the same.
Just one-out-of-three voters (35%) believe most pollsters are interested in reporting the attitudes of Americans in an unbiased manner when they poll on Trump. Forty-three percent (43%) think most pollsters are trying to block the president from passing his agenda. Just 12% say most are trying to help the president pass that agenda instead.
Not surprisingly, given how wrong most pollsters were about the outcome of the presidential election, 64% of Republicans think most pollsters are trying to block Trump’s agenda, a view shared by 42% of unaffiliated voters but only 24% of Democrats.
No matter which way they slice it, the pollsters have lost the public's confidence.

If you believe the polls, then the polls show you do not trust the polls.

And if you don't believe the polls, you do not trust the polls.

Failure has consequences.

Just as the media lost all its credibility in the last election, the pollsters lost theirs not only by being repeatedly wrong, but erring on the side of Hillary.

College polls blew it. Media polls blew it. And conservatives are no dummies. They know that colleges now are just as overwhelmingly Marxist as newspapers and other media outlets.

No longer is it a sneaky suspicion that those who weigh public opinion have their thumbs on the scale. The last election proved finally that this is a fact.

The odds of every one of them getting it wrong in the same way are outside their stated margins of error.

Until the polls again get things right, most voters will not trust them.

And trust is all the pollsters -- and the media -- have going for them.
On November 8, 2016, the American people said, "Trump the Establishment!"

Now read the book that explains how and why the press missed this historic the election.

It is available on Kindle, and in paperback.

And then read the original, "Trump the Press," which chronicled and mocked how the media missed Trump's nomination.

It is available on Kindle, and in paperback

Autographed copies of both books are available by writing me at

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  1. I never, ever trust a poll where the internals are not available.

    1. Absolutely correct. Look at Rasmussen data in this post. Mearly selecting more of one affiliation or another makes your poll come out anyway you wish. A favorite trick in NY is to include a Muslim community as "independent voters" to load the Dem side. Pollsters remind me of the corrupt rating agencies that gave triple A ratings to many unstable mortgage instruments before the Recession. They knew what the banks wanted and gave it to them to preserve their competitive position. Their integrity was of no real concern.

  2. I will bet you one zillion French francs that if - IF - Macron wins, it will be by WAY less than the polls currently show.

  3. We don't trust the media, and we don't trust the polls. and we don't trust academia, neither!

  4. Yes, but can we trust the polls about the polls? Heh.
    One of my sons is always saying that any economic or social measure or benchmark becomes useless the moment it becomes recognized as reliable because people will at that point immediately try to game it for their own purposes.
    The lesson here is to begin distrusting it the moment other people do. Sort of like hedging on the market the moment your shoreline boy starts giving you tips, ala Bernard Baruch.

  5. Shoeshine, not shoreline. Damn autocorrect

  6. When you think about it, the media *only* has the polls to push their narrative. Our lying eyes and their "person on the street" interviews tell us the polls are wrong every single day.

    The problem is, and has been, when they push that lever a food pellet never drops down the shute. Now, we all know that Skinnerians would predict that they would eventually stop using the polls, but they don't. So, either they are getting a reinforcer somewhere else (money or social reinforcers), or, they are operating at the level of frogs who absolutely cannot be conditioned using either classical or instrumental paradigms.

    Until otherwise disproven, I'm opting for the frogs/dumb as rocks hypothesis.

  7. I love caller id. Without a recognizable

  8. Polling is like economics - it sounds sciency but it's not.