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Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Republican wins. NYT declares victory for Democrats

From the Washington Examiner: "Republican Kansas State Treasurer Ron Estes defeated Democrat James Thompson and Libertarian Chris Rockhold Tuesday night to keep the state's 4th congressional district in GOP hands."

Republican Estes 52.5%, Democrat Thompson 45.7%.

A 6.8-point win. Ho-hum.

But Nate Cohn of the New York Times -- who gave Hillary an 85% chance of winning on Election Day -- sees this as a victory for the Democratic Party.

From Nate Cohn:
A Republican Wins in Kansas. It’s Still a Loss for the G.O.P.
This season’s special congressional elections are being heralded as a test of whether newly energized Democrats will fare better with an unpopular Republican president.
So far, the Democrats are passing the test.
On Tuesday, Republicans won an unexpectedly close race in Kansas’ Fourth Congressional District. The Republican Ron Estes won by seven points over James Thompson, even though President Trump won the district by 27 points in November. No Democrat holds a House seat as Republican as this one, so it’s startling that the seat was even competitive.
In general, it’s a mistake to read too much into a single special election. They are more prone to weird results. That’s because there’s less time for recruitment, fund-raising or even opposition research. There isn’t a national campaign going on at the same time. The turnout is often low and variable.
But the Kansas result is not a great sign for the Republicans, and it’s hard to dismiss.
As a Cleveland Browns fan I know exactly what he meant.

The Democrats beat the spot.

Which means the Democratic Party will still get the first draft choice.

Do special elections matter? In Obama's first two years, Republicans lost two seats in special elections, widening Democratic control to 255-176.

But nevertheless came the historic ouster of Democrats in which under Barack Obama's anemic leadership they lost a net total of 63 seats, as Republicans began their biggest comeback, taking state legislature, governorships, and eventually the Senate and the presidency back to the Party of Lincoln.

But, hey, media, keep telling yourselves your party won. Maybe you can run Johnny Manziel for Congress next year.

The original, "Trump the Press" chronicled and mocked how the media missed Trump's nomination.

It is available on Kindle, and in paperback.
Then came "Trump the Establishment," covering the election, which again the media missed.

It is available on Kindle, and in paperback.

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  1. This was probably written before the election itself. The press looks to the NYT for direction on how to write political spin. They feel insecure without reading it every day for guidance (Yes it is true). They should actually come here to Don but since they are all on the same chain gang it is impossible to break away.

  2. I suppose we have to award the NYT an E for effort and an I for imagination, but the W for WRONG is what counts.

  3. Addendum to Orwell's 1984 needed to stay relevant regarding today's Liberals:

    War Is Peace
    Freedom Is Slavery
    Ignorance Is Strength
    Losing Is Winning

  4. The Democrat take on this is spin pretty obviously -- that it was closer than normal might have been significant except for the fact that the astroturf, Soros bully boys and girls put themselves into this hugely (because they are driven by blind raging hate); but, even though a lot of voters likely stayed home as usual in a special election and the haters came out in rabid force, they still lost. A Republican can take that as a good sign.

    Still, let's not be as rose-colored glasses blind as the Media led Democrats. The House is very likely in jeopardy in 2018 for three reasons: 1) is that it's normal and logical that the party out of power makes gains in a president's first midterms; 2) the normally self-righteous, sanctimonious, self-proclaimed superior-than-what-they-call-evil-dumb-Republicans are up in arms to the point of attacking and even committing violence against anyone who is not willing to kowtow to the will of every and any Democrat to an extent I have never seen in my lifetime, so that more may turn out in 2018 than normally Democrats do in midterms; and 3) the Ryan led House is not only doing nothing but is fighting the Republican base that elected Trump tooth and nail to support everything the Democrats want from no wall, no investigation of voting fraud, funding Planned Parenthood (and PBS too), will not make any cuts in the federal bureaucracy, and doesn't see that there can be a very big cut in taxes, but does insist that Obamacare be kept in tact, except for cutting the Medicaid part (which was part of Trump's promise to keep Ryan from pushing granny off the cliff and to concentrate on making America Great Again and not on Ryan's fanatic desire to fix, meaning cut, Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid), so that the Congressional GOP is saying they will do nothing the voters wanted and are going to make reforming entitlements the big issue for 2018. More and more Republican voters who turned out for Trump and were so happy to see what could be done are realizing Ryan is going to make sure Obama's legacy is kept entirely in tact.

    The way to win in 2018 is for Congress to stop fighting against Trump and actually do something that will get GOP voters as excited (except with winning) as Democrats are frothing at the mouth with their hatred and losing!

    1. In other words, they need to come to terms with the fact that their own base prefers Trump to them.
      Once this lesson is learned they can start winning.

    2. They expected and wanted Clinton to win. Doing nothing is the safest way of life for a politician.

  5. 2nd place is still the first loser.

  6. Estes is not super popular, the tax man never is. He won by a smaller percentage in an election that garnered less than half the total votes.
    Come 2018 turn out will be back to normal levels and whom ever the demonicRATS put forth will get the normal shellacking.

    1. My understanding is that he was a GOP "rushed" pick, didn't campaign much, and essentially has the personality of an avocado. Not bad when Shawnee county is one of, if not the, the pinkest areas in KS (6th district).

  7. Pompeo won re-election by 61%. He won his first election by 58%. This GOP candidate won this first election for Congress with 52% and a press so hostile to Trump and GOP they can't keep their lies straight and a DNC that focused all their efforts on taking the seat.

    I'd say it's a pretty convincing win.

  8. You would think Democrats would be getting used to losing by now. A trend likely to continue through 2020 and beyond.

  9. Some times it gets hard to be the good guys and not get dragged into the mud by this monstrous political party.

  10. The Democrats are dumping megabucks into GA-6 (where I live) and running a kid who looks like Nancy Pelosi's pool boy. The GOP is running about twelve candidates that have split the vote, so all the newspapers and TV stations are calling the kid the winner, even though they know he's not going to take it outright and will have to face the next-highest vote getter, who will likely clean the floor with him. Guess it's the old Lao Tzu mentality: tell them you won before the game is played...

  11. Speaking of winning ... at three million a time, this could get expensive.

    "“The defendant acknowledges that these claims about the claimant are untrue, and we retract and withdraw them,” Catrin Evans, a lawyer for Associated Newspapers, said in court. Associated Newspapers is owned by Daily Mail & General Trust Plc."

  12. "In general, it’s a mistake to read too much into a single special election"

    But it's different this time, Mouseketeers!