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Tuesday, February 07, 2017

"Trump the Establishment" is published. Here's an excerpt

I published "Trump the Establishment" today. This is the stand-alone sequel to "Trump the Press," covering the general election.

The book begins, "First they said he would not run."

It ends, "Never bet against Donald John Trump."

In between are how the media got the election wrong. Again. More than liberal bias was at work. But I also had fun mocking what passes for expertise in Washington.

From Chapter 2:
The political prognosticators trusted most in Washington agreed: Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg, and Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia all agreed that Clinton would be the next president.
“Hillary Clinton has high negatives, particularly with independent voters, but if the Republican National Committee had commissioned a search firm to find a prominent Republican who would have the hardest time beating Clinton, it would be Donald Trump. Clinton’s strengths and weaknesses combine to give her a high floor but a low ceiling. Any Democrat expecting Clinton to win in a landslide is very likely to be disappointed, but at the same time, her chances of beating Trump are very good,” Charlie Cook wrote on May 5.
Of course, Cook wrote nine months earlier, on August 11, 2015, “Trump will never be the Republican nominee.”
If Cook were a surgeon instead of an election prognosticator, there would be a lot of people walking around with the wrong arm amputated.
And Mara Liasson on NPR reported on November 9, 2009, “Political analyst Charlie Cook, who tracks all of the races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, predicts that Democrats will lose between fifteen and twenty-five House seats—a big dent in their 40-seat majority, but not as big as the losses in 1994, when Democrats lost control of the House.”
Republicans took sixty-three House seats that year.
If Cook were a lawyer, his name would be Hamilton Burger.
Cook tried again in 2012.
“Republicans may be heading toward complete control of Washington, maintaining the House, taking the Senate, and likely capturing the White House, if Election Day 2012 unfolds as Charlie Cook, acclaimed vote counter, predicts,” Tierney Sneed of U.S. News and World Report wrote on November 17, 2011.
Obama won reelection, and Democrats kept the Senate.
If Cook were a quarterback instead of an election prognosticator, he’d play for the Cleveland Browns.
Rothenberg said early and often that Clinton would beat Trump, including this forecast three weeks before the election: “The trajectory of the 2016 presidential race—which will result in a Hillary Clinton victory—remains largely unchanged from May, when Donald Trump and Clinton were in the process of wrapping up their nominations.
“But what has changed recently is Clinton’s likely winning margin. For many weeks, even months, I have believed that Clinton would defeat Trump by three to six points. If anything, that range now looks a bit low, with the Democratic nominee apparently headed for a more convincing victory, quite possibly in the four-to-eight-point range.”
Of course, he too had blown off Trump’s chances of winning the nomination.
“We all know Trump is a carnival barker, not a credible contender for the Republican presidential nomination,” Rothenberg wrote on May 26, 2015.
He was just as prescient about the 2010 race.
“‘The chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero,’ Rothenberg declared. ‘Not close to zero. Not slight or small. Zero,’” Tim Dickinson of Rolling Stone reported on March 3, 2010.
Only in Washington could a man this wrong this often be considered an expert.
Sabato, too, did not think Trump could beat Clinton. In the spring of 2015, Sabato predicted the Democratic nominee would get at least 247 Electoral College votes and the Republican 206 with 85 up for grabs.
A year later, Sabato upped that to Clinton 347 and Trump 191.
In the previous summer, Sabato said Trump would not win the nomination.
“It should not shock anyone if Trump’s dalliance with the 2016 campaign turns out to be brief. The billionaire could be long gone from the race by the time the first votes are cast in Iowa and New Hampshire, if his efforts are not bearing fruit and he wants to preserve The Apprentice. Trump has a well-earned reputation as a national novelty act that he will have to overcome if he wants to be taken seriously by both the press and the voters,” Sabato wrote on June 18, 2015.
Sabato was not the only person to ridicule Trump’s chances. Late-night comics for years had scorned Trump, perhaps because his The Apprentice show drew much larger audiences. On August 5, 2013, John Oliver guest hosted The Daily Show on Comedy Central. He encouraged Trump to run for president.
“Do it. Do it. Look at me. Do it. I will personally write you a campaign check now on behalf of this country which does not want you to be president but which badly wants you to run,” Oliver said.
The mockery continued throughout the campaign. Appearing on Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night show on October 25, 2016, Obama read a tweet from The Donald: “President Obama will go down as perhaps the worst president in the history of the United States!”
Obama responded to the tweet, saying, “Hey, Donald Trump, at least I will go down as a president.”
Then Obama dropped his smart phone, as if he had the last word.
Two weeks later, the American people got the last laugh—on many.
At the New York Times, Charles Blow had written on May 9, “Congratulations, Republicans, you’ve hitched yourselves to the madman-driven carriage, and it’s heading for the cliff.” Six months later, Blow wrote, “Donald J. Trump is president-elect of the United States. Now there’s a sentence I never thought I’d write.”
Ah, “never thought” described well Blow’s writing.
That is only part of the chapter.

Like "Trump the Press," the book goes beyond mocking these fools. This time, I did a better job in explaining why they blew it as I follow the money and the incestuous nature of the Washington press corps.

The book is available at Create Space, a subsidiary of Amazon. It will be available later at Amazon and other online retailers. I get a better deal at Create Space.

Kindle will come on March 1.

For autographed copies, email me at

Of course, autographed copies of "Trump the Press" are also available. It is available in paperback, and on Kindle

As always, reviews at Amazon are appreciated.

Now if I could just get Charlie Cook to predict the book to flop, I will have it made.


  1. Good morning Mr. Surber. Congratulations on your new book. Just posted a piece at Political Clown Parade as well as a tweet and a post at GAB.

    Thanks for standing guard over liberty.

  2. There are a lot of us out here waiting for it!

  3. DAMN I am going to enjoy this book, Big D! That little appetizer was so tasty. Can't wait for the entree. Fine dining at Chez Surber!

  4. Thanks to Cook et al. I'll be sitting back with a Cuban (or two) and a glass (a lie) of Spanish Sherry sometime around Feb 21.

    The better part of the story is that Don probably has 8 ISBN numbers left. (:::snicker:::).

    Here's lookin' at ya fellas.

  5. Ordered.
    Aside: Reading the intro to Economic and Social History of Greece by Austin and Vidal-Naquet, came across this sentence: In the modern world a man's labour has become distinct from his person: it is a salable commodity which he can sell to others without this implying, in theory, any subjection on his part. In the Greek world, by contrast, this meant to subject oneself to one's employer.
    I'm thinking that this vision of modernity no longer holds true. Try working for any university or big corporation in America and not holding with the political or religious prejudices of those above you in the pecking order in any substantial way and see how ostracism works. Hillaire Belloc was right. We are reentering the servile state.

  6. Congrats. May you reach over 100 Amazon 5 star reviews by the end of February!!
    The check is in the mail.

  7. Hello Don
    You new book looks as good as the previous one. I read Trump the Press twice. I guess I became addicted to the schadenfreude. Page after page I imagined the discomfort of the prognosticators and pundits (with their agendas) watching the ascent of Mr Trump while learnedly predicting his downfall.

    I have no doubt the schadenfreude will continue for me in your new book.

    As an aside: One of the most amazing phenomena to observe is how unembarrassed these pundits seem to be. Even conservative writers and commentators who suffered from Trump Derangement Syndrome seem completely unabashed by the scale of their Trump prediction errors. It is as if they have no shame.

    I still watch Special Report with Hayes and Krauthammer (mercifully George Will has left the building), but these days with a jaundiced eye realizing that I am really watching well connected out of touch fools that don’t have the common sense of the average worker in Peoria. Intellectuals Yet Idiots (IYI) as Taleb has it.

    Thanks for writing Trump the Press. Thanks for making the effort to follow it up with the new book. I can’t wait to read it.


    1. To paraphrase the old candy commercials, "it's indescribably Schadenfreudelicious!!!!!

  8. Some people will tell you that the name "Donald" comes from the Gaelic name "Domhnall" which translates as "ruler of the world", but it actually means "Sometimes the good guys finish first".

  9. Take a couple of days off, Don, then it's time for book 3!

    Suggest a chapter on Milo's encounter with the Berkeley KKK (Karping Kvetch Klan).

  10. Oh, that was a toothsome morsel you threw out above, Don!

    You have such an easy & straightforward way of telling the story, of how the #LyingMedia spin their whoppers without having the grace to blush when caught in their lies. It just seems to flow off the page and paints a picture in my mind, and what a great picture! Of course you have the great advantage of telling the truth instead of peddling lies in pursuit of an agenda, but still, you do it so well!

    Now I'm tantalized by the drop of fine wine you've allowed me to taste, but I want MORE! (I use a blender for my metaphors, thank God you don't write like me!)

  11. I'll never forget MeAgain Kelly literally laughing in Newt Gingrich's face on her show one night when she quoted Sabato saying that five swing states were all going to vote for Killary. Newt kept telling her "it's like there are two parallel universes" and she just wasn't buying it. And then to watch her on election night as they called Wisconsin, the first crack in the blue wall....priceless!