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Tuesday, December 27, 2016

The moment when Nate Silver got the general election perfectly wrong.

Willie Robertson of the Duck Dynasty television show was an early supporter of Trump. Robertson spoke at the Republican convention.

“It’s been a rough year for the media experts. It must be humbling to be so wrong about so much for so long,” Robertson said.

“But I have a theory about how they missed the Trump train. They don’t hang out with regular folks like us who like to hunt and fish and pray and actually work for a living. Heck, I don’t even know that they know how to talk to people from middle America.”

Rather than deal with what was saidby Robertson -- CEO of an actual company in addition to having a reality show -- Nate Silver of 538 transformed Robertson's middle America into "real Americans" -- a liberal code for dumb bunnies.

After cherry picking through his data like a "climate scientist" trying to prove the sky is falling and the seas are rising, Nate Silver wrote on July 21:
Overall, “real Americans” made up only 20 percent of the electorate in 2012. And “real American” men were just 9 percent of it.
I still take what Willie Robertson said to heart. Political journalists, in any number of ways, aren’t especially representative of the electorate that they cover. That can introduce any number of biases. At events like the conventions, it can give journalists a tin ear for what’s resonating with the audience and what isn’t. It can also cause journalists to overcompensate. Palin’s performance in the vice-presidential debate against Joe Biden was widely praised by pundits, but polls showed that a clear majority of voters thought Biden did the better job. (Speaking of which, that’s one big advantage of polls: They can reflect the opinions of a demographically representative sample of voters.)
But this is a big, diverse country, and Robertson’s “regular folks” aren’t especially representative of it either. And if Republicans can’t increase their appeal beyond “real Americans,” they’ll lose their third presidential election in a row.
Let's see, I am not a University of Chicago-trained economist like Nate Silver, but I can do arithmetic and 20 percent of 320 million Americans is 64 million -- or more than the populations of California and New York combined.

In fact, it just happens to be a little more than the combined populations of Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the second congressional district of Maine.

And when you add the Electoral College votes of those states and that one district in Maine to the Electoral College  votes of the 24 states carried by Romney, you have enough votes to win the presidency.

Which is exactly what Donald John Trump did.

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Please read "Trump the Press," in which I skewer media experts who wrongly predicted Trump would lose the Republican nomination. I dedicated an entire chapter to Nate Silver. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.

For an autographed copy, email me at DonSurber@GMail.com

14 comments:

  1. When you have to put "regular folks" and "real Americans" in "scare quotes" it's pretty obvious that you're a "clueless Liberal." - elric

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  2. I think what Nate was using was Sarcastic Quotes.

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  3. If you've ever wondered "What sort of idiot writes this Nate Silver stuff?", clearly not an idiot savant. They can do math.

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  4. You're on a role today Don. First you pegged Kevin Williamson with "THE" name I will always think from now on if he is mentioned: "Kevin is the town drunk of NRO". LOL! and now you've properly skewered Nat Silver by his own pitchfork, as Andy would say.

    Those "signs" tell me it is a good day for you to turn out a couple of chapters of your next book...

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    1. *ROLL not "role" ..... finger-muscle-memory :-D

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    2. It's ROLL, not "role." Jeesus. What are wrong with you?

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    3. What are wrong with me? A lot but in this thread, it's either a Dinner Theater homonym triggering, or I'm on the Malapropism Spectrum.
      LOL!

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  5. The Democrats, Obama first among them, still don't get it. They continue to blame their electoral loss on everything but themselves. They insist their policies are supported by the vast majority of Americans but their message during the election was lost among the chatter and noise and disinformation peddled by the Trumpicans. If their message resonated so strongly among voters, what their opponents had said wouldn't have had much impact. The truth is the Dimocrats have a credibility problem with voters. After being lied to time and time again by The Liar-in-Chief ("If you like your health plan, you can keep your health plan. Period. Full stop."), who can blame them?

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  6. This is hilarious. Silver probably knows how to solve for integrals in matrices and you just whipped his ass with arithmetic.

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    1. I'd suggest Silver is a social-climbing insect, but you can't cross a vector and a scalar.

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  7. "University of Chicago-trained economist"

    That's where it all came apart.

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    1. He's a trained economist?

      That would account for why he stumbles about like a steer being shunted in a cattle-car.

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    2. I'm guessing he's studied under Paullie "The Beard" Krugman.

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  8. Real American who hunt, fish, and actually work for a living are a minority? No wonder the country is going to hell!

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