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Monday, November 07, 2016

Trump 48, Hillary 43.2

The Los Angeles Times continues to forecast a big win for The Donald with its tracking poll showing Trump up 48 to 43.2 this morning.

Elsewhere the polls are not so good. CBS has him down by four, as does ABC. Bloomberg has him down by three. But Investor's Business Daily has him up 43 to 41.

But those polls are traditional random digit dial poll, which in 2012 were off by an average of three points and in 2014 were off by three again.

The Los Angeles Times uses a more sophisticated system developed by RAND Corp. It was within 0.1 point of the margin of Obama's victory in 2012.

Meanwhile, Real Clear Politics has it Hillary 203, Trump 164 in the Electoral College with 171 tossup. You need 270 to win, so it could be anywhere from 335-203 Trump to 374-164 Clinton.

A dart board may be more accurate.

Its no tossups number gives Hillary a 297-to-241 win. But if you move Florida to his column, he wins 270 to 268. Averaging the polls gives her a one-point lead in that state.

Nate Silver gives him a 34.8 percent chance of winning. He gives Trump Florida, but gives her Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina -- states Real Clear Politics give Trump.

It's science!

Just like global warming.

People say at the end, pollsters have to be accurate because their reputations are at stake.

No they don't. ABC, CBS, and the rest will continue posting polls in election after election. They no longer care about the truth. In fact, certain truths are universally avoided.

As Clinton's many crimes show, liberals are never held accountable.

But if you are not, forget it. From Reason: "Single Mother Facing Prison for Selling Homemade Mexican Dish to Undercover Cop."

Why are cops going undercover to buy homemade Mexican dishes?

Obama did not fundamentally transform America. We already were crazy.

The question now is whether we sober up and vote Trump tomorrow, or continue down this merry path of destruction.


Hate the media? Love The Donald? "Trump the Press" is the book for you. It skewers media experts with their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.


  1. 1. Sit down.
    2. Take deep breath.
    3. Calm thyself.
    4. Repeat steps tomorrow after laying in a yuuuuuge supply of beer and popcorn.

  2. I'm in the Florida county that is so populous and Dem that the Dem margin in the county is often larger than the Dem margin for the state. I will state categorically there is NO enthusiasm to vote for Hillary. If she manages a win in FL it is proof that we are past the point where there are so many mindless drones that Dems have every election won before the first vote is cast.

    Then it's forward to the revolution. May the propagandists be first against the wall.

  3. On the woman facing prison for selling Mexican food:Shoulda had her maid print off classified documents instead.

  4. As for the polls vis a vis Scott Adams. A whole lotta vote parking goin' on.

  5. Ned Silver has been weaseling all weekend, so his percentages are nonsense.

  6. Nate Silver regularly discounts this USC Dornsife/LA Times poll by six full percentage points because the weighting of actual data is based upon how the participant voted in 2012. Here is his explanation.

  7. We see Nate as heavily tarnished this year.