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Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Their final election predictions

Predicting elections the day before the election is easy money. But a week out is a little more difficult. Let us see what the big shots say a week before the election.

Their predictions now are what matters, not what they say the night before or even the morning of the election. That's CYA stuff. My betting window closed today.

And with a week to go, they are all with Hillary and they all predict she will win big. They base this on averages of the polls that they weigh. This is the way they have "always" done things -- dating back to 2008.

From Josh Katz at the New York Times:
Hillary Clinton has an 89% chance to win.
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 33-yard field goal.
From Nate Silver at 538:
Chance of winning: Clinton 75.4% Trump 24.6%
We got another set of mixed results on Monday on whether the election has tightened further as a result of FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress about Hillary Clinton’s email server. Overall, however, this is a fairly negative set of data for Clinton. 
While this is not a terrible set of numbers for Clinton — and probably not the “game changer” that the Comey news was billed as on Friday — I’ve also seen analyses that go too far in the other direction and conclude that the news hasn’t really had any impact. Clinton’s popular vote lead is down to 4.7 percentage points in our forecast, as compared with 5.7 percentage points on Friday and 7.1 percentage points two weeks ago. And Trump’s chances of winning are 24 percent in the polls-only model, up from 19 percent on Friday and 12 percent two weeks ago. Trump’s chances are 26 percent in the polls-plus model, which is converging with polls-only.
From Real Clear Politics: Hillary 81% chance, Trump 19%.

From Huffington Post: Hillary 98.2% Trump 1.6%

From David Jarman at Daily Kos:
You’ve probably already OD’d on reading about Friday’s cryptic Comey memo, which re-opened the email can of worms (if only to reveal the can was empty), from every legal and messaging angle. I don't have anything to add about it from those perspectives, so I’ll just stay in my lane here and answer the questions about “what does this do to the polls?!?” It’s a pretty simple answer, though: nothing so far. The Daily Kos Elections model is still holding steady in the mid-90s, currently giving Hillary Clinton 96 percent odds of victory according to Monday’s numbers.
They say the polling is right because it has numbers, and because it has numbers, it is science!

Just like global warming.

Then there is Stuart Rothenberg whom Washington insiders consider an expert on forecasts. In the Washington Post on October 18, Rothenberg wrote: "Trump’s path to an electoral college victory isn’t narrow. It’s nonexistent."

His fellow Washington insider-worshiped guru Charlie Cook wrote on October 25:
Republicans will now have four years to think about what they did to themselves this year, plenty of time to con­tem­plate the consequences of hand­ing over their party’s car keys to the tea-party move­ment and watch­ing as the quint­es­sen­tial tea parti­er, Don­ald Trump, drove the car over a cliff. If Re­pub­lic­ans are really, really lucky, their cur­rent 54-46 Sen­ate ma­jor­ity will only be cut back to 51-49. Los­ing the Sen­ate is at least an even bet, and some ana­lysts think the GOP’s chances are much worse than that. If the Re­pub­lic­ans are really for­tu­nate, they can keep their House losses down to 15 seats or so, half of their cur­rent mar­gin. Then there are the 12 gubernat­ori­al races, where Re­pub­lic­ans once hoped to pick up three to four seats. Also in play are 5,920 of the na­tion’s 7,383 state le­gis­lat­ive seats, 80.2 per­cent of the total, ac­cord­ing to Bal­lot­pe­dia. State le­gis­lat­ive seats are a party’s fu­ture, their seed corn. Demo­crats can tell you what hav­ing dev­ast­at­ing midterm elec­tions can do, as it happened to them in 2010 and 2014. 
My prediction? They are wrong. I base this on the fact that they all got Trump wrong in the nomination process. And by the crowds. And by the news. And by the fact that Trump finally is rolling out ads, and those ads are devastating.

But mostly I base this on the message: Make America Great Again. It has always been about the message, not the messenger.

I drive through Nitro, West Virginia, regularly. A town that in the 1980s smelled of the chemical industry is Hulda Avenue in Cleveland in the 1960s, populated by retired people who cannot sell their homes.

Young people in rural America have OxyContin and heroin, not jobs.

They deserve better than another Clinton, and people will vote accordingly.

We shall see.


Please read "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.


  1. One last shot at saving the Beast.

  2. After the kicker misses the 33 yard field goal on the 8th, it will be quite fun to listen to the excuses as to why the kick was wide right.

    1. You have the wrong perspective. She'll hook it well left of the uprights, as is her habit.

  3. My guess is your next book will have a really yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge chapter on the polls and pollsters. It could be called "Funny Things Happened On The Way To The Voting Booth" (or words to that effect).

  4. Fully Caffeinated Russell G.November 1, 2016 at 9:23 AM

    What we're seeing above is that they've essentially dug in their heals, so, history will axiomatically repeat itself. Look no further than the current Ukrainian propaganda (I didn't say Balkans here because that's legacy stuff) that fully dichotomizes with lies: It's pretty clear that we'll have 8 years of non-stop Trump/Pence bashing until they mature. Socialism is like rust.

  5. A mean widdle kid at this point might send Hillary a coupon for free harmonica lessons.

    In an email.

    I put this up yesterday, but am repeating it today. It's Michael Moore on the polls before the Michigan primary on the eve of that primary. look at how far off they were.

  7. ""We have to elect her, so that we can find out what type of criminal she is"

  8. Y'all should read Peggy Noonan's account of Election Night 80 in her book What I Saw At The Revolution. The deathly silence in the news room as the results started being posted. And the quiet glee of the few conservative there. History doesn't repeat itself, it just tosses in a few extra spices to add to the flavor...

  9. More propaganda from PravdAmerika. Sheesh! These bozos just won't give up. - Elric

  10. Dick Morris says the dam is breaking.