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Wednesday, September 07, 2016

Trump polling better than Romney

That CNN Labor Day weekend poll (taken September 1-4) showed Trump in August wiped out like a bathroom server the nine-point lead that Hillary had in the previous CNN poll (July 27-29)

Trump is doing better at this point than Romney did against Obama in 2012. That also ends the Never Trump argument that Romney did better.

Let's look at the CNN polls.

Four years ago, Romney and Obama were tied among likely voters.

Trump is ahead by one.

Among registered voters, Obama led by seven.

Hillary leads by two.

How do we know Hillary is teetering?

The apologists. They had to go back 80 years to an early poll to "discredit" another poll that showed Trump wiped out her lead.

From Business Insider:
The pollster surveyed a random sample of 1,001 Americans. Trump's lead is within the poll's margin of error of 3.5%, so it suggests the race is essentially tied — although, as we'll see, for a candidate it's better to be ahead even within the margin of error. And it's possible the poll is way off and support in reality is outside that margin.
So what does this mean for Trump and Clinton? Answering that requires a clear sense of how polls work, and looking closer tells you everything about what we can and cannot trust.
In 1936, a magazine called The Literary Digest ran one of the biggest opinion polls of all time. It asked 2.4 million people whether they planned to vote for the incumbent Democratic, Franklin D. Roosevelt, or his Republican challenger, Alfred Landon.
It trumpeted this prediction:
Landon: 57%
Roosevelt: 43%
The poll must have had one of the smallest margins of error in polling. But it was dead wrong.
Of course the first steamboat blew up too, but guess what? We perfected it over time. Same with polls.

The same publication did not question the veracity of polls when the early CNN poll showed Hilary had a huge lead:
Hillary Clinton is now enjoying the same bounce that Donald Trump saw, surpassing her rival in several new polls that have come out since the Democratic convention last week.
A CNN poll released on Monday afternoon showed a seven-point bump for Clinton, who has accepted the Democratic nomination for president. She beat Trump, who accepted the Republican nomination the previous week, 52% to 43% in a head-to-head contest.
And a CBS News poll released on Monday morning showed Clinton with 43% support compared with Trump, who had 41%.
Clinton also overtook Trump in the RealClearPolitics national polling average, with 45% support compared with Trump's 43%.
In the primaries, I trashed polls because most of them were bad, but I said at the time the general election polls would be better. When Trump was down, I said trust the polls. They showed he had work to do. He is doing it.

Hillary's super PAC -- the media -- is worried.

Trump ain't no Mitt Romney.

Deal with it.


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  1. Of course he's polling better than Caspar Milquetoast. The Donald has a certain, shall we say, style. I believe the word is panache. Let me look it up. Yep, it's panache.

    1. flamboyant confidence of style or manner.

    2. historical - a tuft or plume of feathers, especially as a headdress or on a helmet.

    Yep, panache nailed it. - Elric

  2. Trump is hitting issues the people care about.

    Throw in the email mess and her health and you've got an almost perfect political storm.

  3. And, like General Grant, He FIGHTS.

  4. In 1936, there was more accuracy to the affluent Republican/working class Democrat stereotype, and Literary Digest only polled those affluent enough to enjoy the luxury of a telephone.

    Mark S.