Trump the polls

I did not expect Trump to lead in the polls until late summer. He surprised me a few weeks ago, but now the media shows polls that show him behind, pundits are saying triumphantly that he will never catch up because he isn't raising as much money as Clinton, doesn't have a gargantuan staff, and isn't kissing up to the pols in Washington.

Two facts: He has a message. She doesn't.

So what about the polls. How late is too late?

From the New York Times, October 12, 2008:

In the latest Gallup tracking poll, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Mr. McCain’s deficit in that survey has remained seven percentage points or more for most of the last two weeks.

Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.

Yet Mr. Carter, like Mr. McCain today, represented the party holding the White House in bad times. After Mr. Reagan successfully presented himself as an alternative to Mr. Carter in their lone debate, held on the late date of Oct. 28, he surged ahead. After two debates, Mr. Obama holds a lead that is approaching Mr. Reagan’s eventual margin of victory.

In 1968, Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey all but erased a 12-point early-October deficit before losing narrowly to Richard M. Nixon. In 2000, Vice President Al Gore wiped out a seven-point deficit in the final 10 days of the election, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College to Mr. Bush.

OK, so if he is down by less than 8 in October, he has a chance.

We shall see.